The Black Death didn't have mass transportation to spread across the world. Imagine the Spanish Flu in today's world. People already aren't doing their part. You think they will magically start now?
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Club Furlough
- Thread starter paincorp
- Start date
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Dart_8992
Well-Known Member
I think there is cause to worry, but I think you're focusing on the wrong reasons.
The virus will be solved in time. We will either get a vaccine or herd immunity sooner or later. Once we achieve that, the flying will slowly return. The thing that most worries me isn't the virus scaring people, its businesses realizing they don't need to do all of this business travel anymore. They are learning during this pandemic that they can continue business as usual without flying people across the country and the world. Those business meetings they used to do in person, are now being done in the comfort of their homes via teleconference . This is what would worry me. Business travel makes up a very significant portion of the passenger demand and from what I can tell, a lot of that isn't coming back.
Take a look at the real estate market right now. Prices are soaring in suburban america because so many people have been told that they will never have to return to the office, so they are leaving the cities and buying homes in the suburbs. Commercial establishments all over the country are going to let their leases lapse and continue from this point on with their workforce's working from home. I fear the business travel will follow this trend.
who'swho
Don't hesitate. Penetrate!
Imagine the Spanish Flu during a World War when millions of troops were being transported globally. Oh, that's right... that already happened. Wash your hands, wear masks, and avoid gatherings if you want to keep your job.
CF34-3B1
Well-Known Member
Many businesses have gone to that for the time being but if you look into it closer you’ll find that they are figuring out it just isn’t the same as in person. I think for the short term you’re right, they will work remotely. But it is hard to close the deal on that sale from FaceTime without the schmoozing at the golf course followed by a fancy dinner and drinks afterwards. They’ll make it work for now remotely until there is a treatment or a vaccine but I think they will go back to the in person stuff after we wipe this thing out with a vaccine or turn this into just a cold with some type of treatment, for the most part. We might lose some of the business travel but I don’t think all of it or even a majority of it.
from doing door to door sales at one point in my life, I can assure you closing the deal is much more effective in person than over a phone or a FaceTime type setting. It’s much easier to say no when you don’t have to look at them or when you know you can hang up right afterwards.
Flagship_dxer
Penske Material
Some are finding its cheaper to have workers stay at home than to maintain large office buildings. Others will look at the cost savings of doing business via zoom instead of paying for air travel. Business travel will return but to what degree and when won't be known probably until middle of next year assuming a vaccine is available and effective.
CF34-3B1
Well-Known Member
Right, they will certainly enjoy the cost savings by not having some of the expenses associated with business travel but like I said above, don’t think it will be permanent. There is no replacement for in person when it comes to sales. So even if you are saving a good bit, you need revenue and if you aren’t bringing enough in because your sales/business deals are suffering then at some point you don’t care about the air travel savings and you get out there and make some deals.
Flied Rice
Well-Known Member
Flagship_dxer
Penske Material
DCT LAV
AKSledhead
Well-Known Member
Hey everyone, here's a live feed of our astronauts returning to Earth!
DispatchMonkey
Well-Known Member
1980's era sci-fi movie called, wants his spacesuit back...
Does that mean we’re finally living in the future?
who'swho
Don't hesitate. Penetrate!
Not until tomorrow
AKSledhead
Well-Known Member
KiloEchoVictor
Well-Known Member
I think that's moreso being done to quell fear amongst the public and employees. Businesses always seek to protect themselves from liability and if they think there's even the slightest chance that they could be blamed for someone catching the virus, they will take whatever measures they think are necessary to reassure people. In-person meetings will come back when public sentiment allows for them.
My big concern here is that it's just too good of a story for the media to ever let an "all-clear" message get through. Covid headlines are juicy and fear-porn sells. There's a lot of psychological stuff at play here, in a way people enjoy the feeling of pandemonium because it's exciting. So I am concerned that even when the situation legitimately does improve, the media will try to keep the paranoia train going for clicks. That's really what's driving all of this. Lockdowns or not, the economy won't move until people feel comfortable going back to businesses. You can't just flip a switch and get everyone to go back to normal after they've heard for months and months that the sky is falling and we're all going to die.
Deaths are actually rising again.
And seeing as 2 million people haven’t died, I guess the lockdown worked, after all, since that was part of the reason that we have been social distancing.
Flagship_dxer
Penske Material
Its looking like the steep furlough numbers all the airlines published were indeed as many believed just scare tactics to get Congress to poney up more money.
Until things change for the better with passenger demand and international travel restrictions, I would expect this to be a regular fixure of dispatch and airline life every six months.
Until things change for the better with passenger demand and international travel restrictions, I would expect this to be a regular fixure of dispatch and airline life every six months.
So how many are you thinking will be furloughed?
