The next big one may have nothing to do with pilots. I may have to do with outsourced heavy maintenance. There is point in pilot training and operations where you are pushing on spaghetti. That is you are using a lot of resources for very little measurable gain. I think outsourced heavy maintenance may be the next big thing to cause a problem.
Many on this board do not remember but on May 25, 1979, when I was a young flight instructor in the mid-west, American Airlines flight 191 crashed on takeoff from ORD. The right engine came up over the wing and the crew lost the airplane. It was attributed to an improper maintenance procedure on mounting the engine. One of the mechanics involved committed suicide over the accident.
Aircraft now go to South America and the Caribbean, where the airlines assure us that everything is fine and everything is completely airworthy.. Well the next big thing may be happening on the shop floor right now. Improperly installed flaps for instance that depart the aircraft one day. Remember the elevator jam nut on the Alaska MD-80?
The people who work in these hangars are not licensed, they are doing the work because they do it cheap. And if they do it wrong, particularly in heavy maintenance where mistakes can be buried in the air-frame for a time waiting to fail, it may not be discovered by line maintenance of the carrier in time to fix. The crew could be presented with a massive failure of some type that they simply cannot deal with.
I hope an accident does not happen due to foreign maintenance but all the majors and many large regionals have outsourced heavy maintenance and the could be consequences. There does not seem to be adequate FAA oversight.