Firebird2XC
Well-Known Member
Five years ago, I posted an op/ed piece here titled 'Regional Airline Pilots: Welcome to the Rest of Your Career'.
In that piece, I opined that while career progression to 'destination jobs' would continue for many, that the growth of outsourced airline flying with increased aircraft size would be the predominant area in domestic U.S. air traffic.
In other words, I saw the future as a place where Legacy carriers shrank to largely international-only operations with brand names being their primary commodity of business.
Since then, due to industry trends, global economics, as well as pilot and industry lobbying, the landscape has shifted somewhat. While many Legacy scope agreements have been renegotiated, amended, or even abrogated, Regional fleets have seen a shift towards larger aircraft, as predicted. However, with growth at the mainline Legacies being driven largely by consolidation and partly by fleet renewal, the next five years are yet to be determined.
The point of examining this is to understand why the trends in airline fleet and subcontract planning matter to us- at any level. While previously, in 2008, the intent of my article was to help pilots see the need to advocate for their rights even at the 'transitory regional Jobs', this essay suggests that vigilance of all levels is required for all levels now.
With cost structure at the Regional carrier affiliates rising in response to new first officer hiring requirements and industry-wide rest rule revisions, cost parity with mainline carriers may produce scenarios where mainline carriers may eventually be on equal footing in terms of personnel costs. What this means is that while five years ago I scolded the common trend of "trying to raise the roof while the floor is being cut out from under us," airline labor has in fact realized the need for a defensible baseline and reacted accordingly.
Now that that is coming to fruition, it's time to put our collective gaze on the horizon again. As mainline carriers continue to consolidate and regional carriers adapt to new regulatory requirements directly affecting their cost models, it is important to remember that the rules that protect us are the same rules that industry lobbyists fight day in and out to undermine.
I still believe that 'middle-sizing' of airline fleets is likely, and the push to the 100 to 140 seat market is the largest domestic growth sector, and that subcontracting and outsourcing of that sector from mainline carriers will continue. In the long run, to protect our baseline of employment standards, it is as vitally important to fiercely lobby in defense of Regional pilot work rules and compensation as it is on the Legacy level of things.
While we have indeed succeeded in many ways of preventing the 'floor from being cut out from under us,' that was only half the battle. Now that the ship isn't being cut out from under us, now is truly the time when "a rising tide lifts all boats."
Many of us are far removed from where we were in the industry five years ago. Some of us have upgraded in familiar equipment or moved on to 'destination jobs'. Some of us have completely left the industry. Others, like myself, have seen the normalization of movement to upwards of five to seven years. The culture of 'rapid upgrade' and all of its misleading statements and expectations appears to finally be past. While relatively brisk turnover in current regional ranks might bring that five to seven year period down, that moment is likely to be very temporary. As airlines gather personnel and resources to meet their needs in the future, eventually Regional airlines will find ways to fill their ranks again. Either through ab initio training programs with service contracts or finally raising wages to attract more pilots, the Regional ranks will continue to swell as long as a cost difference with Legacy pilot groups exist. In the next five years, however, I think we'll see a continued narrowing of that gap.
In that, I press all of you to remember that while things are improving, that improvement can be short lived. A sudden and dramatic economic reversal for unknown reasons could easily send our employers scrambling to court to try to take more away from us- again. Now is the time to stand your ground, more than ever. Stand your ground on contract issues, and if forced to comply, grieve them. If you don't have union representation, I strongly urge you to organize your fellow aviators for the times ahead. Collectively, pilots have a made a strong push in legislative areas in the past five years, but let us not forget the cost. Much of those changes were made with ink from the 'sacred inkwell of change' filled by the blood of our fallen brothers and sisters on either side of the armored door, as well as the passengers we all pledged to protect. Our new opportunities were forged from the smoking ruins and tragedies of those lost by assembling the discarded wreckage into something workable, defensible, and new.
It has bothered me at times to see so many of this profession embattled. It seems unfair that we must continually picket, litigate, and arbitrate just to hold on to what we have already negotiated. But we must press on.
I'm curious what everyone else here thinks the future holds. Please- express your opinions, your desires, and your theories. And certainly don't be shy about the outlandish ideas you might have. You'll have to defend them- but I'm certainly far from able to knock coming from left field. ; )
In that piece, I opined that while career progression to 'destination jobs' would continue for many, that the growth of outsourced airline flying with increased aircraft size would be the predominant area in domestic U.S. air traffic.
In other words, I saw the future as a place where Legacy carriers shrank to largely international-only operations with brand names being their primary commodity of business.
Since then, due to industry trends, global economics, as well as pilot and industry lobbying, the landscape has shifted somewhat. While many Legacy scope agreements have been renegotiated, amended, or even abrogated, Regional fleets have seen a shift towards larger aircraft, as predicted. However, with growth at the mainline Legacies being driven largely by consolidation and partly by fleet renewal, the next five years are yet to be determined.
The point of examining this is to understand why the trends in airline fleet and subcontract planning matter to us- at any level. While previously, in 2008, the intent of my article was to help pilots see the need to advocate for their rights even at the 'transitory regional Jobs', this essay suggests that vigilance of all levels is required for all levels now.
With cost structure at the Regional carrier affiliates rising in response to new first officer hiring requirements and industry-wide rest rule revisions, cost parity with mainline carriers may produce scenarios where mainline carriers may eventually be on equal footing in terms of personnel costs. What this means is that while five years ago I scolded the common trend of "trying to raise the roof while the floor is being cut out from under us," airline labor has in fact realized the need for a defensible baseline and reacted accordingly.
Now that that is coming to fruition, it's time to put our collective gaze on the horizon again. As mainline carriers continue to consolidate and regional carriers adapt to new regulatory requirements directly affecting their cost models, it is important to remember that the rules that protect us are the same rules that industry lobbyists fight day in and out to undermine.
I still believe that 'middle-sizing' of airline fleets is likely, and the push to the 100 to 140 seat market is the largest domestic growth sector, and that subcontracting and outsourcing of that sector from mainline carriers will continue. In the long run, to protect our baseline of employment standards, it is as vitally important to fiercely lobby in defense of Regional pilot work rules and compensation as it is on the Legacy level of things.
While we have indeed succeeded in many ways of preventing the 'floor from being cut out from under us,' that was only half the battle. Now that the ship isn't being cut out from under us, now is truly the time when "a rising tide lifts all boats."
Many of us are far removed from where we were in the industry five years ago. Some of us have upgraded in familiar equipment or moved on to 'destination jobs'. Some of us have completely left the industry. Others, like myself, have seen the normalization of movement to upwards of five to seven years. The culture of 'rapid upgrade' and all of its misleading statements and expectations appears to finally be past. While relatively brisk turnover in current regional ranks might bring that five to seven year period down, that moment is likely to be very temporary. As airlines gather personnel and resources to meet their needs in the future, eventually Regional airlines will find ways to fill their ranks again. Either through ab initio training programs with service contracts or finally raising wages to attract more pilots, the Regional ranks will continue to swell as long as a cost difference with Legacy pilot groups exist. In the next five years, however, I think we'll see a continued narrowing of that gap.
In that, I press all of you to remember that while things are improving, that improvement can be short lived. A sudden and dramatic economic reversal for unknown reasons could easily send our employers scrambling to court to try to take more away from us- again. Now is the time to stand your ground, more than ever. Stand your ground on contract issues, and if forced to comply, grieve them. If you don't have union representation, I strongly urge you to organize your fellow aviators for the times ahead. Collectively, pilots have a made a strong push in legislative areas in the past five years, but let us not forget the cost. Much of those changes were made with ink from the 'sacred inkwell of change' filled by the blood of our fallen brothers and sisters on either side of the armored door, as well as the passengers we all pledged to protect. Our new opportunities were forged from the smoking ruins and tragedies of those lost by assembling the discarded wreckage into something workable, defensible, and new.
It has bothered me at times to see so many of this profession embattled. It seems unfair that we must continually picket, litigate, and arbitrate just to hold on to what we have already negotiated. But we must press on.
I'm curious what everyone else here thinks the future holds. Please- express your opinions, your desires, and your theories. And certainly don't be shy about the outlandish ideas you might have. You'll have to defend them- but I'm certainly far from able to knock coming from left field. ; )