DOJ sues to prevent LCC/AMR link up

[Firebird2XC]

So, what I'm getting from you is that you don't want the merger to happen because it's slowing down your flow-through? Flow-throughs change. Half of them aren't worth the paper they're printed on. Ask a ton of guys I flew with when I was at XJT how it worked out for them.

You think I don't know that flowthroughs can be messed up? That's cute. I've been neck-deep in Letter 3 and arbitration award politics since I started at Eagle. It's part of life here.

What I'm saying is this: good, bad, want, don't want- it doesn't matter. I think that this merger isn't really a product of an entirely unified effort of two management teams and their respective CEOs. This is a back-door takeover plan by Parker. I was expecting a push from Horton to derail the thing and this is it.

... and either way, Eagle guys *are flowing* in the fall. They're getting lined up for class dates now. Merge, don't merge- I don't give a damn. Just settle it so we can get on with things. For Eagle, finalization in any form means movement and that's nothing but good for Eagle pilots.

 

[skyw82]

I was expecting a push from Horton to derail the thing and this is it.

Horton isn't doing anything, he's just sitting on the sidelines waiting for his money that he now has to wait longer for since lane didn't approve of it. Horton probably wanted to go alone but it looks like that ship has sailed and even if it falls apart he's probably going to be out in the long run.

Did you see that the UCC want to extend the merger "drop dead" date? The only way this fails is if the doj wins and there is nothing horton can do at this point.

I'm just hoping it doesn't screw me if it does or doesn't. I've got flow through rights in seniority order. Between then and now, a lot of guys have a lot of ways to go up and out to AA, which is good for me at Eagle. The hard part is not knowing how things will play out either way.

Horton was *not* initially on board with this, but all the labor ran to Parker to save them from Horton. When things played out, they were all "We meant for this to happen!" which was likely an attempt to save face. But look at history- Parker rattled the saber about this a few years ago when AMR's stock hit a low. Previously, via America West, he swallowed up US Air, then made a run at Delta while they were in bankruptcy, which was only thwarted because labor rallied behind not merging. So now, with labor on board with AA, what's to stop him from pushing the issue?

If I had to take a stand, part of me doesn't want this because I see Parker using Frank Lorenzo-esque acquisition and labor suppression tactics. Since that slimeball himself has chimed in in the press lately about things, you can't tell me that Parker hasn't taken a page from his playbook. It's too obvious. It's like Eastern and Continental all over again- and we saw how that worked out. Sure, some laws have changed, but then what?

If the merger goes through, AA gets stuck with the so-called 'ugly girl at the dance'. I think Horton never wanted this and got boxed in.
I can't say for certain this would be bad for AA or US Air in the long run, but consolidation always means redundancy and stagnation, and anything that smells like Lorenzo has me wary any day.

But speaking of behind the scenes it was originally Horton that brought up merging a few years ago. I know he wanted to be the one running any merged airline and the fact that Parker came from behind to screw him made him panic.

But you're right us air needs this merger way more than AA. If it doesn't merge I don't think we'll see us air stay around much longer that 10 years. If the merger doesn't happen parker needs to go either way. He's squandered the cost benefits he's had for the past 7 years where he could have grown the airline. Instead he's done nothing but the usual US air way of retreating and cutting.

 

[Firebird2XC]

Horton isn't doing anything, he's just sitting on the sidelines waiting for his money that he now has to wait longer for since lane didn't approve of it. Horton probably wanted to go alone but it looks like that ship has sailed and even if it falls apart he's probably going to be out in the long run.

Did you see that the UCC want to extend the merger "drop dead" date? The only way this fails is if the doj wins and there is nothing horton can do at this point.



But speaking of behind the scenes it was originally Horton that brought up merging a few years ago. I know he wanted to be the one running any merged airline and the fact that Parker came from behind to screw him made him panic.

But you're right us air needs this merger way more than AA. If it doesn't merge I don't think we'll see us air stay around much longer that 10 years. If the merger doesn't happen parker needs to go either way. He's squandered the cost benefits he's had for the past 7 years where he could have grown the airline. Instead he's done nothing but the usual US air way of retreating and cutting.

I'm not sure if Horton never wanted this merger or not, but I know he doesn't want it now. Parker pushed him out, plain and simple, and the 20 million was hush money.

Now that Horton isn't guaranteed that, he'll try to get ahead another way. Time will tell, I guess.

Meanwhile, I'm in Cozumel and am about to set out in search of the city's best cheeseburger.

 

[skyw82]

I'm not sure if Horton never wanted this merger or not, but I know he doesn't want it now. Parker pushed him out, plain and simple, and the 20 million was hush money.

Now that Horton isn't guaranteed that, he'll try to get ahead another way. Time will tell, I guess.

Meanwhile, I'm in Cozumel and am about to set out in search of the city's best cheeseburger.

apparently he can get it after the deal is done when the bankruptcy court isn't involved.
But I'm pretty sure this merger has less than a 50% shot at this point.

 

[mikecweb]

Time to update my resume... again.

After reading some of the info about the doj suit I'm thinking that it's got a better than 50%. Most analysts think this suit is garbage and ridiculous. Add to the fact that aa is beyond the point of no return to get a stand alone plan.

you're starting to see more and more pressure against the doj. I've also been reading that a few people involved with the doj said they were debating on even filing the suit in the first place. I'm thinking they were hoping that AA and US would have just walked away rather that fight it which is the case 99% of the time. My guess is maybe they will come to a solution before the court date.

looks like this probably is going to fail.
1) trial date most likely won't be till march - aa will walk away
2) if it does go to trial aa will most likely lose
3) the doj doesn't seem to want to settle at all and most likely wants this entire thing to be defeated.

I want this deal to happen as well but the more I educate myself about the doj process the more a realize this getting more far fetched by the day.

I'm cautiously optimistic, this was a big deal. At least we know there is a chance of a trial. But I'm going to be cautious because they can still lose the trial.

apparently he can get it after the deal is done when the bankruptcy court isn't involved.
But I'm pretty sure this merger has less than a 50% shot at this point.

How bout you just say you don't know and you'll find out when it is ruled in court like everyone else.

 

[skyw82]

How bout you just say you don't know and you'll find out when it is ruled in court like everyone else.

It's the 5 stages of loss and grief.

 

[Firebird2XC]

It's the 5 stages of loss and grief.

Which stage is "making no sense"?

 

[derg]

it's 3pm.

This is the beer and nachos stage. Who is with me?

 

[Firebird2XC]

it's 3pm.

This is the beer and nachos stage. Who is with me?

You're late to this party. Been living it all week.

Gear's rinsed, wetsuit drying, beer thirty. Nachos con pollo señor. Y mas Sol...

 

[skyw82]

How bout you just say you don't know and you'll find out when it is ruled in court like everyone else.

Which stage is "making no sense"?

Never said I was sure about what would happen either way, just taking the info as I get it just like everyone else. No need to cyber stalk.

 

[Firebird2XC]

Never said I was sure about what would happen either way, just taking the info as I get it just like everyone else. No need to cyber stalk.

Hey! Hey! Pull my finger!

 

[PhilosopherPilot]

it's 3pm.

This is the beer and nachos stage. Who is with me?

I'm at the whiskey stage. Catch up!

 

[surreal1221]

I'm at the whiskey stage. Catch up!

Are there stages, I thought it was "Whisky" time. No water, no beer, just right to whisky.

 

[PhilosopherPilot]

Are there stages, I thought it was "Whisky" time. No water, no beer, just right to whisky.

True. The stages are Irish, Scotch, Jack Daniels...

 

[mikecweb]

In other news AAMRQ went above $7 a share today.

 

[crashmbern]

I smell a settlement coming!!

 

[skyw82]

This is wallstreet we're talking about.

Bernanke get's a bad case of diarrhea and the dow drop 100 points.

 

[Firebird2XC]

In other news AAMRQ went above $7 a share today.

.. and once the share price exceeds Parker's ability to enact a leveraged buy-out, Horton will tell him to pound sand.

I think this bankruptcy will be over soon, and the merger nonsense shortly thereafter.

 

[skyw82]

.. and once the share price exceeds Parker's ability to enact a leveraged buy-out, Horton will tell him to pound sand.

I think this bankruptcy will be over soon, and the merger nonsense shortly thereafter.

Maybe you missed the news that the POR has been approved. The only way this will be stopped is by the doj, horton at this point can't do anything.

But you may end up getting your wish, and will be able to flow from eagle sooner for your lower paying mainline job.

 

[Firebird2XC]

Maybe you missed the news that the POR has been approved. The only way this will be stopped is by the doj, horton at this point can't do anything.

But you may end up getting your wish, and will be able to flow from eagle sooner for your lower paying mainline job.

The DOJ blowing up the merger is Horton's whole idea, I think. Horton hasn't done much of anything in quite some time. Just because Judge Lane approved the POR doesn't mean it's a done deal- the DOJ definitely still has the last say, and a lot of the pundits are saying the odds of winning the DOJ case are about 50/50 for AMR. A coin toss. Pay attention!

But you wanna talk lower paying mainline jobs? AA's scale beats USAir's by a country mile. What logic are you even using?
And it doesn't matter to me, personally, whether I flow now or later- so long as guys senior to me at Eagle do. The money I make today, with the proverbial bird in the hand, is worth far more IN MY HAND than the money I *might* make tomorrow via some pie-in-the-sky seat-capacity-reduction-and-airline-profitability-pipe-dream. This is even more true when I consider potential ROE over time with money I can make and invest now rather than later.

I'm done waiting to get paid 'someday'. I can do more now with the money in hand than I can with some empty promise of a future that may never happen. But hey, go back to whatever you're smoking. It seems like it must be some good stuff.