1500hr Rule - Do you think the industry will adjust? If so, how?

If the regionals can't provide the service they are contracted for, the mainline carriers will just take it back, with higher loads and less frequency.

You know, thinking about the math given the amount of flight training in the US- I think my assessment is wrong. Probably half of that dual given is coming from folks like me, or career CFI's that aren't likely to ever take an airline gig.

That leaves about 1500/year that can reasonably be expected to have 135/ATP times from teaching. I doubt all of those will want to go to regional carriers - 500 or so will probably go to better paying GA gigs. The corporate world can increase pay immediately to attract people, no pesky union contracts and all.

So - purely doing the math, the supply of pilots is somewhat constrained. Of course, there are years when there is no hiring, so there may be some backlog to work through when hiring does happen.

The argument that mainline carriers will "take flying back" - not so sure about that. They need crews to do that flying, which means hiring from a regional, which means even more staffing pressure. Plus, there is a long lead time on acquiring aircraft and gates.
 
Actually, both of those ARE directly airmanship issues -- poor SA and procedural errors fall smack in the middle of the realm of airmanship, decsionmaking and judgment. They sure weren't stick-and-rudder errors.
Can't argue there. I guess I was trying to make the point that having more hours is not going to make you a better user of a checklist or better at reading runway signs. Between 250hrs and 25,000hrs you are not going to get any better at using a checklist.
 
If the regionals can't provide the service they are contracted for, the mainline carriers will just take it back, with higher loads and less frequency.

What makes you say that? Airlines are in the business of making money, not transporting people from point A to point B. If it doesn't make financial sense to operate a ML aircraft with less frequency, they will just stop serving that market.
 
Can't argue there. I guess I was trying to make the point that having more hours is not going to make you a better user of a checklist or better at reading runway signs. Between 250hrs and 25,000hrs you are not going to get any better at using a checklist.
You sort of nailed what I've been unable to eloquently state, and my really my only materially valid gripe about this change. Let me expound upon it.

(Let me state: I've also accepted its inevitability and like every other regulatory change ever foisted upon an airline pilot, I'll complain vociferously about it and then comply anyway and say how great things are now that it's effective. If that hasn't come through clearly, well, mea culpa, it's hard to project tone on the innerwebz. It's also somewhat difficult for me to be serious about this thread since (a) what we think about it here is largely irrelevant and (b) this is not the venue to submit comments to the Department of Transportation. 1,500 hours with some carve-outs is fait accompli thanks to an act of Congress, too.)

Central beef: Certain habits that I would call professional airmanship have to be instilled from day one, and it's been my experience going through the training environment that their instilling is hit and miss and largely up to the first few instructors that you have. I've been very fortunate in my training, timebuilding and aeronautical work experience to be, from day one, in that happy balance between serious, relaxed, compliant/spot on, and fun that (IMO) both builds the best pilots and produces the best quality in flight operations possible. I had some excellent, experienced flight instructors (including the old man, who has forgotten more about flying than I'll ever know), and wandered pretty far outside the confines of the PTS along the way. I also work in an environment that generally has a good safety culture in flight operations.

Problem: Not all environments are created equal; not all training/timebuilding experiences are created equal. Not all pilots are created equally for that matter, and the increase in FO qualifications will in the long run be a net positive for the industry in terms of improving the general level of airmanship in the business. But to me it almost isn't enough to throw numbers out there—I think that the pilot certification model overall deserves some scrutiny and indeed where the industry is going with respect to flying skills (system manager versus aviator...) should get some attention too.

From a public policy standpoint, this and other parts of HR5900 represent what Kingdon would call a confluence of policy problems (air transport safety at the regional airline level), solutions (increased FO qualifications, and a whole boat load of other things including SMS), and the public will to make a change (caused by quite a few rather deplorable accidents at the regional level). One of the things about such solutions is that they never 100% match the stated problem and, to me, this does not even approximate a 100% match to the stated problem, but it's not a bad start, and it is the solution that matched up time-wise.

Will the industry adjust? Most certainly. This is far from a business-ending event for anyone, and at least where I've worked the low time pilots were anomalies, not the norm, and many pilots period (regardless of their experience or qualification level) got bounced from the interviews (for whatever reason) or from initial training (for failure to adapt). I actually think that the regionals are on the decline for reasons besides labor supply—there was no shortage of ATPs looking for work where and when I interviewed.

I'd like DOT to end the regulatory uncertainty and get a final rule out, so that we can all hurry up and get on with the actually aviating. Speaking of that, I'm going to go do some aviating—backside of a cold front in SoCal is a beautiful day for an airplane ride. I and a handful of my coworkers have our work cut out for us, and I personally am more than happy to bust our butts to keep our jobs.

tl;dr: This whole deal is actually a win, but it is far from a silver bullet; time to get on with the flying. Take all of the above with a grain of salt. Do not take with alcohol. Consult your doctor right away if you experience chest pain, as this may be a sign of a rare, but serious side effect.

(Oh, and jtrain609 - just as soon as I comply with this regulatory hurdle and get the ATP, I'm going to go out and get a full set of instructor ratings too, so that I can be a more productive contributor to building better pilots. And because, truth is, I've always wanted to teach flying—I worked through college as a computer science instructor, and I would like nothing better than to be able to apply that experience to teaching folks to aviate. I got an unexpected career reroute a few years ago while in the process of doing so—I'm sure you're familiar with that—and I'm still trying to get back to it. And ah crud, my written tests are expired too. Groan. BRB, professional development.)
 
Actually, both of those ARE directly airmanship issues -- poor SA and procedural errors fall smack in the middle of the realm of airmanship, decsionmaking and judgment. They sure weren't stick-and-rudder errors.

Yes, exactly. I don't recall if flight hours were even mentioned at the time, but I seem to recall that the crews in both the Comair accident and the PSA accident weren't exactly rookies and already had their ATP ratings. I could be wrong, but I don't have time to look it up just now.
 
Yes, exactly. I don't recall if flight hours were even mentioned at the time, but I seem to recall that the crews in both the Comair accident and the PSA accident weren't exactly rookies and already had their ATP ratings. I could be wrong, but I don't have time to look it up just now.

Nobody is arguing about the number of hours when somebody has when they ride one in, we're discussing about what happens BEFORE you get to the airline gig and how it helps to prevent people from riding one in.
 
You know, thinking about the math given the amount of flight training in the US- I think my assessment is wrong. Probably half of that dual given is coming from folks like me, or career CFI's that aren't likely to ever take an airline gig.

That leaves about 1500/year that can reasonably be expected to have 135/ATP times from teaching. I doubt all of those will want to go to regional carriers - 500 or so will probably go to better paying GA gigs. The corporate world can increase pay immediately to attract people, no pesky union contracts and all.

So - purely doing the math, the supply of pilots is somewhat constrained. Of course, there are years when there is no hiring, so there may be some backlog to work through when hiring does happen.

The argument that mainline carriers will "take flying back" - not so sure about that. They need crews to do that flying, which means hiring from a regional, which means even more staffing pressure. Plus, there is a long lead time on acquiring aircraft and gates.



Hey Drunkenbeagle,

I agree with many of your points. The only comments I have are the mainline carriers taking some of their flying back only in markets in which will financially support a specific aircraft type. I have always believed if mainline and regional carriers leave certain markets other companies or operations will be substituted as it was in the past.
 
Hey Drunkenbeagle,

I agree with many of your points. The only comments I have are the mainline carriers taking some of their flying back only in markets in which will financially support a specific aircraft type. I have always believed if mainline and regional carriers leave certain markets other companies or operations will be substituted as it was in the past.

Leaving markets that are otherwise profitable/breaking even? Don't see it. Business travelers are what pay the bills, and the route network is primarily why they use certain carriers. It also means a reduction in feed to the profitable international routes.
 
Hey Drunkenbeagle,

I agree with many of your points. The only comments I have are the mainline carriers taking some of their flying back only in markets in which will financially support a specific aircraft type. I have always believed if mainline and regional carriers leave certain markets other companies or operations will be substituted as it was in the past.
Example is DL is now flying mainline to CAK in DC-9s (due to AT). They do a few a day, and then let the RJ's do a few each day. If regionals went away DL might add a flight, and all the RJ's would just go away.
 
As far as the 1500 Hour ATP rule being rolled back--it's not going to happen. What has happened is that the route to the right seat has gone back to the way it was in the 70's and 80's. In order to get to the airlines, it's going to take thousands of hours of real flight experience.

Some have spoken about exemptions or exceptions. There are some of the 4 year universities pushing for a lower number of hours for their GRADUATES to qualify for an ATP rating. They may be able to get a lower number ATP for their GRADUATES with a 4 YEAR DEGREE. What that number is--no one knows at this time, but I have heard 750-950 hours being discussed. But keep in mind, it will still take 4-5 years, of college and flight training, to receive such an exemption if one is even granted. It's not a fast track. It's not a quick and cheap way into this career. It's not a quick way to train a bunch of new pilots.

For all practical purposes, the 1500 hour ATP rule has already kicked in because no regional is hiring anyone these days without 1500 hours because of the impending ATP deadline.

The regionals will be the first airlines to experience the inability to find qualified applicants. This will slow or stop their growth. Some will cease to exist for a number of reasons that may or may not be related to the inability to hire qualified pilots. It's not going to get any better because the supply of new pilots in the US has pretty much stopped for simple economic reasons.

The majors will continue to pull pilots from the regionals and will do so until that supply runs out. At some time in the future, when the supply of regional pilots has run out, the majors will wake up and realize that their growth will be restricted by the number of qualified pilots they can hire.

In the future, my prediction is that the majors will establish a part 142 ab intro training program in order to insure a steady supply of pilots for their company. That program, if and when established, will change how professional flight training is done. I would expect the airlines to lobby the FAA and Congress for a reduced number of hours, or a new pilot rating, in order to get pilots into the right seat, provided the 142 requirements are met.

The only other way for the majors to hire pilots, once the regional pool has been exhausted, would be to "steal" them from other major airlines with hiring bonuses, etc. Seniority has always stopped this before. No one can afford to leave a $120,000 a year job to start over again at $20,000 a year with another airline. With all of the mergers, that is not as likely now that the last two (AA and US) at the dance have officially announced their merger.

Joe


Not even close considering the 70's and 80's did not have the internet in which people can study materials for pilot licenses/ratings. One instructor/examiner interpretation of a maneuver was different from another instructor/examiner interpretation whereas both were in the same flight schools. PTS standards are interpretation of those standards. We call regional airlines commuter airlines back in the day in which you needed 2500 hours with a 1000 multi and ATP for the right seat of a 402, PA-31, Bandit, or Metro. We had many airline/aviation accidents in that period in which many well trained crews did not save the ship but paved the way for more rules such as TCA's(class B airspace) or maintain a certain altitude until established on a published segment(route) of a approach. Like it or not, Humans make mistakes and this will never change!
 
Nobody is arguing about the number of hours when somebody has when they ride one in, we're discussing about what happens BEFORE you get to the airline gig and how it helps to prevent people from riding one in.

When you're arguing that a certain number of hours will prevent you from "riding one in", you have to expect that the counter argument will come up that hours aren't going to guarantee that you're not going to "ride one in". That is what the discussion is. That's what the discussion has been. Pay attention.
 
When you're arguing that a certain number of hours will prevent you from "riding one in", you have to expect that the counter argument will come up that hours aren't going to guarantee that you're not going to "ride one in". That is what the discussion is. That's what the discussion has been. Pay attention.

Ha! Sure thing.
 
The argument that mainline carriers will "take flying back" - not so sure about that. They need crews to do that flying, which means hiring from a regional, which means even more staffing pressure. Plus, there is a long lead time on acquiring aircraft and gates.


If a majority of the regionals go TU, those pilots will seek work elsewhere. There will never be a shortage at mainline carriers, IMO, unless something major changes, even if the regionals stick around. There won't ever be staffing issues at a major. Regional Jets aren't really that efficient and people are scared of props. Long term, they might need to start some sort of ab initio program, but they will be set for a decade, simply because 911 set back a lot of people that long in their career progression.

Yes, there is a long lead time on acquiring new aircraft. I won't pretend to know the inner workings of an airline, but a lot of them have made huge orders on newer, efficient aircraft to replace their entire fleet. I think there still is a way for them to acquire aircraft relatively quickly which would fill a regional need. They wouldn't have to be brand new, either. Again, just IMO.

Operating Costs: Another reason for declining
supply is the comparatively poor economics
of 50-seat jets compared to larger jets. Oliver
Wyman’s analysis of five major US regional
airlines found that 50-seat jets cost 10% more
per available seat mile than 70-seat jets in
comparable age profiles. Volatile fuel prices add
to the economic challenge because 50-seaters
have higher relative fuel consumption compared
to larger jets. Furthermore, fixed operating costs
for a 50-seat jet, such as dispatch, flight planning,
navigation, and pilot costs must be distributed
over fewer seats, making these smaller jets
inherently more expensive to fly. Indeed, as the
mainlines entered and emerged from bankruptcy,
mainline pilot wages dropped, thus shrinking the
difference between mainline and regional cost
per available seat mile (CASM)

I just don't think the regional model is that viable, as it is. If you have to raise the pay, that eliminates one of their biggest advantages: low labor costs.
 
If a majority of the regionals go TU, those pilots will seek work elsewhere. There will never be a shortage at mainline carriers, IMO, unless something major changes, even if the regionals stick around. There won't ever be staffing issues at a major. Regional Jets aren't really that efficient and people are scared of props.

My thought experiment was as to the steady-state replacement rate of pilots given 1500 and current aggregate instruction hours in the US.

There may well be pilots that will move around, but eventually equilibrium will be reached.

Over time, given 1,000 new pilots/year, that would cap the air line pilot population at 40,000, which would support about 4,000 airframes. We have over 7,000 now.

Of course, instruction hours will pick up if there is a "pilot shortage." Which would increase the pilot supply, but not by much - it would take 10 new students to mint 1 airline-hireable instructor.
 
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