Frontier chooses Republic

[mrivc211]

This is not a merger, it's a bail out from bankruptcy. They have no leg to stand on, and are in no position to be making demands. The frontier guys would have gotten 40% pay raises to come upto wn levels. Lifes not fair, ask the twa guys at AA who are on the street.

If it was me, I would have taken the RAH offer. I'm only at about 80% on the AirTran list, but if stapled by SWA, I would drop to 93% and wouldn't see an upgrade for probably 20 years. That sucks, to say the least. Being stapled below guys that aren't even on property and are just in a hiring pool is absolute nonsense. SWAPA is out of their f'ing minds. This level of disrespect for fellow professionals just blows my mind.



I'm sure you would, but do you think a 10-year F9 Captain that gets whatever schedule he wants would feel the same way? He would not only lose his seat, but would go from the top of the seniority list to virtually the bottom. Ridiculous.



What do you expect from an isolationist union like SWAPA? These guys don't care about anyone but themselves.



Glad to see that Bedford isn't trying to weasel his way out of the scope language. Just more proof that scope is everything.

 

[Timbuff10]

Why does everyone think the F9 guys were going to get pay raises? They were going to lose their jobs if they went to Southwest. The only reason SAPA wanted them was to create a cushion between them and the bottom. Without stapling the F9 guys under them, you watch what happens. Southwest may be looking at furloughs themselves now.

At best, the F9 pilots could have had pay raises for up to two years while F9 shrinks to extinction. After that a few of the lucky ones would get to move over to the flying turds while most of the other F9 pilots wait for a few years to get hired, and all the other 4500+ F9 employees are totally out of a job.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Leverage.

In this economy, you have none.

Not true. The state of the overall economy has very little bearing on bargaining leverage in this industry, unless your company's financials are tracking with the overall economy. In the case of RAH, the company's financials have virtually no link to the overall economy, because most of their business comes with a guaranteed profit margin. Bedford now seems to be hell-bent on creating the next major airline, and he seems to have most of the pieces in place to make it happen. Under those circumstances, the pilots have considerable leverage. I think they could accomplish a contract similar to what AirTran has currently. Granted, that's an 8-year old contract and is not industry-standard for major airlines, but it's a huge step for them, and they'll be able to get up to industry-standard in the next bargaining cycle.

This is not a merger, it's a bail out from bankruptcy. They have no leg to stand on, and are in no position to be making demands. The frontier guys would have gotten 40% pay raises to come upto wn levels. Lifes not fair, ask the twa guys at AA who are on the street.

Under the Bond-McCaskill legislation, there is no difference in a bail out from bankruptcy rather than a straight merger. In reality, there is rarely such a thing as a straight merger anyway. The DAL/NWA merger was really a purchase by DAL.

In any case, Bond-McCaskill designates any purchase of more than 50% of the stock or controlling interest of a company as a "qualifying transaction." This left the F9 pilots with incredible bargaining leverage, because SWA could either agree to integrate per the law (direct negotiations, mediation, arbitration), or they could not make the purchase. Period. The same goes for Bedford. He is now required to integrate in a "fair and equitable" manner under the Allegheny-Mohawk LPPs. Since the RAH contract does not contain pay rates for this equipment, this means that the IBT has incredible leverage to bring their contract up considerably.

Now, the question of course is whether the IBT has the brains to use their leverage effectively. I doubt it. It's a shame that ALPA negotiators aren't at RAH, because they could milk this for all it's worth.

 

[jtrain609]

Yes they do. Right now, they have as much leverage as they need. BB won't let the company be shut down after all the work he's done.

One pilot group, and if they strike, RAH is done.

What's the time line to that strike, and what happens until then? I'm guessing it'll take years to even get to the point of the NMB releasing RAH to self help and even if he does, the recent history of the presidency of the United States points to the idea that the president (ANY president, remember Clinton wasn't exactly the nicest guy to airline labor) will prevent a strike from happening because of the crippling nature of such a strike on the economy.

Now, it could well be argued that because Frontier and Midwest are not big players in the air transportation infrastructure, the president would allow such a strike to occur. I'd argue against it, though, being how diversified Republic is. Because of this diversification (which is THE WAY to run a regional, as far as I'm concerned), it'll pull down route structure at multiple mainline carriers, who won't fly those routes with mainline aircraft because that would be flying struck work.

So depending on the amount of due diligence the administration puts into what Republic does with the majority of their fleet (mainline feed), a strike may or may not be allowed. And again, that's assuming that the NMB releases Republic to self help. To even get to that point, as we both know, is a very, very, very lengthy process.

Simply put with the way the RLA is setup, and with the way it's been administered over the last 20+ years, the deck is stacked in favor of the house.

Bedford will happily sit on his hands while the union attempts to negotiate with the company. Unless you can point to a provision in the contract that states that a new aircraft pay rate MUST be finalized within X days, this could take forever. In fact if I were Bedford, I'd hold out as long as possible and hope a republican administration ended up taking over the white house in 2012, thus making it easier for him to get what he wants.

Don't get me wrong, I WANT the Republic pilot group to pull this one off, I just don't think that it will happen. You do, and our disagreement has less to do with wanting to support the RAH pilot group and more to do with what we think the score is. I think that management has their best batter up with runners on second and third, while you've got a lot of faith in your pitcher.

Personally, I don't. I just think the guys you're up against are too good, too maneuverable and too well backed.

 

[meritflyer]

What do you expect from an isolationist union like SWAPA? These guys don't care about anyone but themselves.

:rotfl:

They're doing better than you and just about every other pilot out there flying domestic routes. You're right, those damn "isolationists" don't know what the hell they're doing.

Once again, ladies and gentlemen..

:clap:

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

the recent history of the presidency of the United States points to the idea that the president (ANY president, remember Clinton wasn't exactly the nicest guy to airline labor) will prevent a strike from happening because of the crippling nature of such a strike on the economy.

Clinton allowed multiple strikes under the RLA, including the NWA strike, which would have shut down immense amounts of air travel. You've lived under Bush's NMB for so long that you've forgotten what it's like to have an administration that actually enforces the Act as it's written and intended.

And again, that's assuming that the NMB releases Republic to self help. To even get to that point, as we both know, is a very, very, very lengthy process.

Not as lengthy as you apparently think. Until Shrub came around, the average length of time spent in mediation was about 18-24 months. Expect that to return.

Bedford will happily sit on his hands while the union attempts to negotiate with the company. Unless you can point to a provision in the contract that states that a new aircraft pay rate MUST be finalized within X days, this could take forever. In fact if I were Bedford, I'd hold out as long as possible and hope a republican administration ended up taking over the white house in 2012, thus making it easier for him to get what he wants.

Article 21 of their agreement lays out the procedures for accepting new aircraft types. Basically there is a period of direct negotiations followed by binding arbitration. I guess it depends on whether Bedford feels lucky or not. Judging as how the latest Airbus payrate from Jetblue was pretty high, I'm betting he's not feeling too lucky.

 

[jtrain609]

Clinton allowed multiple strikes under the RLA, including the NWA strike, which would have shut down immense amounts of air travel. You've lived under Bush's NMB for so long that you've forgotten what it's like to have an administration that actually enforces the Act as it's written and intended.

Clinton shut down an American strike eh? Or am I thinking of the wrong era?

Not as lengthy as you apparently think. Until Shrub came around, the average length of time spent in mediation was about 18-24 months. Expect that to return.

Nope, 18-24 months is exactly what I was thinking actually. Two years from the start of things to get results? That's 2011, and two years under what kind of pay rates?

Article 21 of their agreement lays out the procedures for accepting new aircraft types. Basically there is a period of direct negotiations followed by binding arbitration. I guess it depends on whether Bedford feels lucky or not. Judging as how the latest Airbus payrate from Jetblue was pretty high, I'm betting he's not feeling too lucky.

Indeed.

I know I'm not exactly blowing sunshine and roses up everybodies collective butts with this, but I don't think it's possible to take advantage of the situation until you know the answers to the questions we don't want to think about. As I said, this is THE OPPORTUNITY for Republic to get a mainline contract, but unless the guys in the Republic union and the folks over at the IBT are thinking up some great ways around these roadblocks, the opportunity will not be seized.

If this opportunity is taken advantage of, though, I believe it'll be a watershed moment in the direction that labor unions take in this country, finally striking a blow in the turn around of wages for people in this country generally, and the airline industry specifically.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Clinton shut down an American strike eh? Or am I thinking of the wrong era?

Clinton implemented a PEB.....at the request of the APA! He would have allowed the strike to continue had the APA not wanted it shut down. They were stuck between a rock and a hard place, and they need Clinton's help to fix the situation. He obliged.

Nope, 18-24 months is exactly what I was thinking actually. Two years from the start of things to get results? That's 2011, and two years under what kind of pay rates?

I don't follow IBT negotiations too closely, so I'm not sure if they're already in mediation or not, but I know that RAH has already been negotiating for a little while now. They aren't just starting.

Indeed.

I know I'm not exactly blowing sunshine and roses up everybodies collective butts with this, but I don't think it's possible to take advantage of the situation until you know the answers to the questions we don't want to think about. As I said, this is THE OPPORTUNITY for Republic to get a mainline contract, but unless the guys in the Republic union and the folks over at the IBT are thinking up some great ways around these roadblocks, the opportunity will not be seized.

If this opportunity is taken advantage of, though, I believe it'll be a watershed moment in the direction that labor unions take in this country, finally striking a blow in the turn around of wages for people in this country generally, and the airline industry specifically.

I agree that the union will have to play their cards right to see results, which is why I'm not too optimistic (sorry, but the IBT doesn't have a clue what they're doing). However, the road blocks are not the ones you're pointing to. Obama, the NMB, and the RLA are not the road blocks anymore. In this case, the road block is the incompetence of the IBT and inexperience of the leadership.

 

[Seggy]

In this case, the road block is the incompetence of the IBT and inexperience of the leadership.

What leadership? Being too kind there.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

What leadership? Being too kind there.

Good point.

 

[kellwolf]

If we get released after this TA gets voted down over here, I'll say "You're right." However, one of the reasons this TA is getting shopped around (according to one of the negotiators) is that the NMB said "No dice" on a release anytime soon. That, to me, means no leverage thanks to the economy. If you can't force management's hand into getting a better contract, what incentive do they have to NOT fly 99 seat E190s for E175 pay? About the same incentive 9E has had the last five+ years: zilch.

I really hope the RAH guys can pull this one through, for all of us. I just see it as a SERIOUS up hill battle, and a LONG one at that.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

The NMB's refusal to release you had nothing to do with the economy. Can't say much more than that, but remember to ask me about it at NJC.

 

[kellwolf]

The NMB's refusal to release you had nothing to do with the economy. Can't say much more than that, but remember to ask me about it at NJC.

Sadly, I've got vacation with the fam in Orlando this year, so I won't be at NJC. I might be able to haul myself to ATL for a meet & greet, though. I'm just going on what I heard from one of the negotiators.

 

[surreal1221]

Sadly, I've got vacation with the fam in Orlando this year, so I won't be at NJC. I might be able to haul myself to ATL for a meet & greet, though. I'm just going on what I heard from one of the negotiators.

We're (or I am) trying to plan one in November. Be sure to let me know when you might be able to get on down.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Sadly, I've got vacation with the fam in Orlando this year, so I won't be at NJC.

Damn, that sucks. Blow off the family and come to Vegas.

I might be able to haul myself to ATL for a meet & greet, though. I'm just going on what I heard from one of the negotiators.

The negotiators have a vested interest in pointing the blame at someone else.