Odds of getting picked up

sestevens

New Member
So many of you have been on this board for a lot longer than I have, so maybe you'll have a handle on this. Obviously there are no official stats published, and it plainly depends on the particular hiring needs at the time, but based on what you've all seen over the months, what would you all say is a rough ratio of WQ's that get offers?
 
Let's see:
Use the following formula
moz-screenshot.jpg
Pvalue-by-Z-formula-Integration.gif

:laff:
On a serious note, (although i have taken advanced calculus and probability:panic:) this website makes a bad statistical sampling for your 'odds'. You have a 'sampling bias'. In other words, anyone who is picked-up will be more likely to be on these boards, while someone who is NOT picked-up is NOT likely to be trolling around here.
All I can say is:
If you have a 'Well-Qualified' ATSAT, decent work experience, and possibly aviation experience (pilot's license, etc) you stand a very good chance of being picked up. Nearly ALL the people on here have a well-qualified score, except for those that have a veteran's benefit or something else going for them.

Edit: I know you want numbers. When I ask "how much something is", I always hate it when someone says "it depends". For a well-qualified ATSAT and someone who reads these boards and knows what they're doing, then maybe a 30-80% rate for a PEPC offer (state selection is often important). For just 'qualified' ATSAT, possibly below 10% rate for PEPC. And nearly everyone who goes to PEPC gets a TOL (tent. offer letter), but may get hung up on the medical test or psych test.
 
Thank you very much :) I, too, have taken a great deal of stats and calculus, so I understand that this is by no means a statistically sound sample or in any way accurate. I just haven't been on here in the past, so I was wondering if there is a relatively low/high percentage of WQ's and Q's that do or don't get picked up, because I really have no idea.

You could tell me that 1% of WQ's get hired, or that 99% do, and I'd believe you either way at this point, because I really don't even have a ballpark idea :)
 
Thank you very much :) I, too, have taken a great deal of stats and calculus, so I understand that this is by no means a statistically sound sample or in any way accurate. I just haven't been on here in the past, so I was wondering if there is a relatively low/high percentage of WQ's and Q's that do or don't get picked up, because I really have no idea.

You could tell me that 1% of WQ's get hired, or that 99% do, and I'd believe you either way at this point, because I really don't even have a ballpark idea :)

From my experience, it boils down to your AT-SAT score and then your Geo Prefs. If you have a WQ score, chances are if you apply for a PUBNAT, the panel is going to review your application, especially if you choose a state that is in need of trainees.

The biggest question everyone seems to want to know (especially those who are looking to apply) is "Which areas need controllers????" Well, the real answer to that is that not many of us know, but we can guess. I've seen a LOT of people on here get picked up for En-route (center) positions, while not quite as many on here are picked for terminal or TRACON facilities. I've also read that Guam and PR are usually a pretty good choice if you are really wanting to be a controller because not many people apply for those areas, however I'm not too sure how much truth there is to that statement.

Getting hired as an ATC with a WQ score is like speeding down the freeway. You never know whether or not you're going to get a ticket, but the probability of getting one is much higher during peak times (a WQ score) than at 2am (a Q score).

Do your research (for Geo Prefs) and make sure you have work history/school experience, plus some aviation background, and your chances of getting picked up increase.

Hope this helps. Good luck!
 
I'm still having trouble believeing that they don't differentiate between an 86 ATSAT score and a 99. Shouldn't the 99 be given slight preference? I mean it makes sense. From what people say, the test is the most significant factor, and I would think there's a bigger difference between a 99 and an 86 than there is between an 86 and an 84. Maybe it's just me.
 
I'm still having trouble believeing that they don't differentiate between an 86 ATSAT score and a 99. Shouldn't the 99 be given slight preference? I mean it makes sense. From what people say, the test is the most significant factor, and I would think there's a bigger difference between a 99 and an 86 than there is between an 86 and an 84. Maybe it's just me.

Well, they might have a study showing that anything above 85 doesn't show a significant increase in probability that you will succeed. I don't know -- it could be one of those things where if you studied 2 hours for a test then the chance of you getting an A would increase by 80% but if you study an additional 2 hours then it would only increase an additional 20% after that, 2 additional hours on top would increase 10%, etc.... The previous statistics on tests are not true and I'm using them as examples only.

I understand why you would be upset, though.
 
Well, they might have a study showing that anything above 85 doesn't show a significant increase in probability that you will succeed. I don't know -- it could be one of those things where if you studied 2 hours for a test then the chance of you getting an A would increase by 80% but if you study an additional 2 hours then it would only increase an additional 20% after that, 2 additional hours on top would increase 10%, etc.... The previous statistics on tests are not true and I'm using them as examples only.

I understand why you would be upset, though.


I don't know if upset is the right word, but it's probably not far off. Even if someone did study a lot for it to get a good score (I didn't cause personally, I don't study for anything) shouldn't that be considered a good thing? If they took the time and effort to study to help their chances of success, then perhaps that would be indicative of their desire to study material presented to them during training. Not a guarantee I realize, but certainly not a bad thing either. I don't know, perhaps I'm just getting ready to bitch and moan in the event I don't get selected with a 100 ATSAT and a college degree and 3 years of work. Note: I'm not bragging about any accomplishments, just stating that I certainly meet all their requirements.
 
I don't know if upset is the right word, but it's probably not far off. Even if someone did study a lot for it to get a good score (I didn't cause personally, I don't study for anything) shouldn't that be considered a good thing? If they took the time and effort to study to help their chances of success, then perhaps that would be indicative of their desire to study material presented to them during training. Not a guarantee I realize, but certainly not a bad thing either. I don't know, perhaps I'm just getting ready to bitch and moan in the event I don't get selected with a 100 ATSAT and a college degree and 3 years of work. Note: I'm not bragging about any accomplishments, just stating that I certainly meet all their requirements.

Hey I understand. I didn't get a 100 but I did graduate cum laude (.01 shy of summa -- doh!) and have work experience that shows two promotions within a year.
 
The fact that WQ and Q even exist leads me to believe that those are all they look at rather than the raw score. If they really did compare 95 to 90, what would be the need of assigning arbitrary classifications?

As far as rewarding good study habits, perhaps that is where college GPA comes into play. Surely someone getting a 4.0 in college shows a tendency to do well more than a 100 AT-SAT does. Four years of hard work vs. a couple of weeks (if you even study).

The AT-SAT is basically an IQ test. Apart from learning the format of the test, I don't think that there is any "studying" you can really do for it. All the reading in the world won't make you better at doing applied math.

So maybe the test is for natural ability, and the college/work experience is for your work/study habits.

Summary of everything above: I hope I get hired.
 
The fact that WQ and Q even exist leads me to believe that those are all they look at rather than the raw score. If they really did compare 95 to 90, what would be the need of assigning arbitrary classifications?

As far as rewarding good study habits, perhaps that is where college GPA comes into play. Surely someone getting a 4.0 in college shows a tendency to do well more than a 100 AT-SAT does. Four years of hard work vs. a couple of weeks (if you even study).

The AT-SAT is basically an IQ test. Apart from learning the format of the test, I don't think that there is any "studying" you can really do for it. All the reading in the world won't make you better at doing applied math.

So maybe the test is for natural ability, and the college/work experience is for your work/study habits.

Summary of everything above: I hope I get hired.

Sip on some FAAtorade and wait. I am STILL waiting for an OKC date...

Has anyone tried sending chocolates to the HR reps/panels? :laff:
 
The AT-SAT is basically an IQ test. Apart from learning the format of the test, I don't think that there is any "studying" you can really do for it. All the reading in the world won't make you better at doing applied math.

So maybe the test is for natural ability, and the college/work experience is for your work/study habits.

Summary of everything above: I hope I get hired.

I think you can study for it. It always helps to know the types of questions you will be asked. I don't think they would have a rule where you could re-take the test if they didn't think that there is a chance someone could get a significantly higher score.
 
The fact that WQ and Q even exist leads me to believe that those are all they look at rather than the raw score. If they really did compare 95 to 90, what would be the need of assigning arbitrary classifications?

As far as rewarding good study habits, perhaps that is where college GPA comes into play. Surely someone getting a 4.0 in college shows a tendency to do well more than a 100 AT-SAT does. Four years of hard work vs. a couple of weeks (if you even study).

The AT-SAT is basically an IQ test. Apart from learning the format of the test, I don't think that there is any "studying" you can really do for it. All the reading in the world won't make you better at doing applied math.

So maybe the test is for natural ability, and the college/work experience is for your work/study habits.

Summary of everything above: I hope I get hired.

Well the fact that they even give us our raw score implies to me that it might be considered somewhat, though you're point is probably more valid. I like how we're trying to analyze this in some sort of logic or reason based method, when by now we all should have realized neither of those two words applies in this process. I see you put down CO as well, so we might get to discuss this entire process in depth later on. What facility are you hoping to get?
 
It's my understanding that they do use some formula, but raw score is not directly included.

For example (random numbers):
If WQ: add +10 points
Q: +2 pts

Pilot's license: +5 pts
Work experience: 1 pt for each year
College: 0.75 pts per year
And I am pretty sure those 20 or so questions you answered in the application will correspond to a certain point count.

One unknown about the recent PUBNATs: Are there more applicants since the economy has taken a dump? Or are there less applicants because everyone interested applied to the earlier ones?
 
It's my understanding that they do use some formula, but raw score is not directly included.

For example (random numbers):
If WQ: add +10 points
Q: +2 pts

Pilot's license: +5 pts
Work experience: 1 pt for each year
College: 0.75 pts per year
And I am pretty sure those 20 or so questions you answered in the application will correspond to a certain point count.

One unknown about the recent PUBNATs: Are there more applicants since the economy has taken a dump? Or are there less applicants because everyone interested applied to the earlier ones?

Well, the economy didn't crash in July. I wouldn't think that the state of the economy would have influenced the number of applicants in PUBNAT5 & even 6.
 
Getting hired as an ATC with a WQ score is like speeding down the freeway. You never know whether or not you're going to get a ticket, but the probability of getting one is much higher during peak times (a WQ score) than at 2am (a Q score).

I love the analogy. No comment on how useful it is or isn't, it's just great.

As far as rewarding good study habits, perhaps that is where college GPA comes into play. Surely someone getting a 4.0 in college shows a tendency to do well more than a 100 AT-SAT does. Four years of hard work vs. a couple of weeks (if you even study).

Nope. AT-SAT score is king. Like the rest of the work world, the FAA doesn't care too much about your GPA. About the only time it would come into play is if two candidates were otherwise identical in their qualifications and one had a 2.0 and other 4.0. And even then, it's a big maybe... depending on whether or not the person selecting for that particular area cared to go into that much depth comparing two candidates. I wouldn't count on it.

The AT-SAT is basically an IQ test. Apart from learning the format of the test, I don't think that there is any "studying" you can really do for it. All the reading in the world won't make you better at doing applied math.

Of course you can study for it. I spent hours practicing the Scenarios and Scan on Jeremy Justice's website, doing practice questions, working on my instrument reading, and so on. And comments from people who've taken advantage of the guide available here and at SM have been pretty positive. It's not a necessity, of course, and people can do well without studying at all -- but any predictive aptitude test is like that. Some people spend hundreds preparing for the SATs, some just go in and do it. National Merit Scholars come out of both groups. But hey, I'm the kind of guy that likes to prepare wherever he can.

So maybe the test is for natural ability, and the college/work experience is for your work/study habits.

The first part is true. The second part should be, but like I said, it's not scrutinized as closely as maybe it should be. You may have read the recollections of controllers about the test being much harder than it is now -- the point where bad candidates are filtered out used to happen much earlier on. Now, they leave it to people failing in the Academy or washing out of facilities.

Like you said (in so many words), it's not terribly difficult to pull a good AT-SAT score, but it doesn't necessarily mean you'll be a good controller or a hard worker. Unfortunately, it's how the application process is structured. Gotta play their game.

Summary of everything above: I hope I get hired.

Amen to that, brother.
 
Well, I am certain that studying will not HURT you. The question is, can it help you? Really the only way to know that for sure is for someone to take the test without studying, get a 70, then study and go back and get a 90. And then have that happen consistently.

Just because someone studied and did well doesn't mean that studying works. That implies causation. Perhaps they would have done equally well without studying.

I feel like the only thing that "studying" (let's just call it what it is, practicing) will do for you is give you a heads up on the actual format of the test. At best, that might calm you down a bit and make you perform better. But doing a letter factory simulator for 3 hours will not turn you into the kind of person that can do that kind of multitasking. Some people can just do that better than others, and that's what the AT-SAT is for. To find those people.

If you could inflate your score by just studying, then why bother with the test at all? Why not just go off of GPA, since that shows your ability to study over 4 years?

I'm just saying you can't study your way into being able to stay calm through stress. You can either do that, or you can't.

</rant> :)
 
What facility are you hoping to get?

Ideally, I'd like ZDV in Longmont. I certainly am not opposed to terminal work, I'm just a little intimidated by the idea of starting my career on Denver Approach. I really like living in this area, and I'd certainly like to stay.
 
It's my understanding that they do use some formula, but raw score is not directly included.

For example (random numbers):
If WQ: add +10 points
Q: +2 pts

Pilot's license: +5 pts
Work experience: 1 pt for each year
College: 0.75 pts per year
And I am pretty sure those 20 or so questions you answered in the application will correspond to a certain point count.

One unknown about the recent PUBNATs: Are there more applicants since the economy has taken a dump? Or are there less applicants because everyone interested applied to the earlier ones?

You have been gone for a long time. Between the time you decided to abandon us and now, we've found out all the panels see is the announcement you are grouped with, if you're WQ or Q (in fact they don't even see the Q apps until they've exhausted the WQ), your geo preferences and your application printed directly out of ASAP as you entered it.
 
Ideally, I'd like ZDV in Longmont. I certainly am not opposed to terminal work, I'm just a little intimidated by the idea of starting my career on Denver Approach. I really like living in this area, and I'd certainly like to stay.


I'm from Longmont so that's where I'm hoping to get too. I know a couple of the guys who work there through my bartending job. They keep saying they need people, so hopefully that works out for us. Did you ever get to talk to the manager?
 
You have been gone for a long time. Between the time you decided to abandon us and now, we've found out all the panels see is the announcement you are grouped with, if you're WQ or Q (in fact they don't even see the Q apps until they've exhausted the WQ), your geo preferences and your application printed directly out of ASAP as you entered it.

Does anyone have any idea when it is printed out? Is it already done, or if I update something in the next week will that make it on?
 
Back
Top