Where is the pilot shortage..

M

meritflyer

Well-Known Member
Everyone has been talking about (mainly the schools).

I keep hearing this "The FAA is estimating that 40% of the existing airline pilots will face mandatory retirement in the next 10 years..."

Marketing scam? Truth?

Any takers?!?
 
Re: Where is thie pilot shortage..

darby???

kit darby???

I've talked to guys whove been flying for decades and they're still waiting for it.
 
Re: Where is thie pilot shortage..

Texasspilot said:
darby???

kit darby???

I've talked to guys whove been flying for decades and they're still waiting for it.
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Had to be Kit's numbers. He is the only that seems to say there is a shortage and the schools buy into it. He has made alot of money fulfilling empty dreams
 
Re: Where is thie pilot shortage..

A school that operates out of Deer Valley and isnt the name of an old airline has it on their website that the FAA predicts such a shortage.
 
Re: Where is thie pilot shortage..

Yeah! You would think that the Majors would be forced into hiring by now from that sort of attrition. Makes me wonder lately too.

I have seen statements like this under the Legacy carriers info at AirlinePilotCentral:
In the next 9 years AA will retire approx. 4000 pilots(Assuming Age 60 rule
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51% of CAL pilots to retire in next 10 years
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50% of NWA pilots are age 50 or older (hat tip: Lou Smith of Flightops.com
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Re: Where is thie pilot shortage..

Furthermore, if this is indeed the case, won't the airlines be making alot more money because their pilot force is lower on the seniority ladder as an average, thus average pay will be much less too?

Would they not see that coming and NOT have to whck the current force for retirment and pay cuts?
 
Re: Where is thie pilot shortage..

Dont be fooled. The airlines will fill the seats as soon as they become empty. The schools want you to believe that one morning, all the major pilots aren't gonna show up for work and all the big jets are gonna be sittin' on the ramp with no one to fly 'em.
 
Re: Where is thie pilot shortage..

meritflyer said:
Dont be fooled. The airlines will fill the seats as soon as they become empty. The schools want you to believe that one morning, all the major pilots aren't gonna show up for work and all the big jets are gonna be sittin' on the ramp with no one to fly 'em.
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Thats Gulfstreams idea. We need you and your $18000 to fill that empty seat so we dont lose passengers
 
Re: Where is thie pilot shortage..

meritflyer said:
Everyone has been talking about (mainly the schools).

I keep hearing this "The FAA is estimating that 40% of the existing airline pilots will face mandatory retirement in the next 10 years..."

Marketing scam? Truth?

Any takers?!?
Click to expand...

What they said could be the truth, let's assume that it is, only problem is there are enough pilots to satisfy the claimed shortage.

Military Retirements
Regional Guys moving up
Regionals lowering the mins...
Pilots retiring from the Majors, are not being replaced 1 to 1.

I do know that India is going through a pilot shortage, China is having trouble, & Japan is predicting a pilot shortage in the next couple of years.
 
Re: Where is thie pilot shortage..

I think it might be a problem of QUALIFIED pilots, but not a full blown shortage.....
 
Re: Where is thie pilot shortage..

40% of all pilots are not within mandatory of retirement age. Pre 9/11 ----maaaaybe---- but I seriously doubt it.

There will be a low amount of available pilots that the airlines traditionally hire which are former military pilots, mostly transport experience, some with fighter experience, etc.

It's not that the traditional pool of pilots disappeared, there's a much diminished incentive to seperate from the military and foregoe actually retiring from the military and all of the requisite benefits.

There will always be an oversupply of pilots, but qualified pilots (in the traditional sense: former military, civilian medium-large transport category turbojet exp., etc) is another story.
 
Re: Where is thie pilot shortage..

"A school that operates out of Deer Valley and isnt the name of an old airline has it on their website that the FAA predicts such a shortage"

Don't get me started....

PanAm has THE worst marketing. Worse than DCA, even.
 
Re: Where is thie pilot shortage..

DE727UPS said:
"A school that operates out of Deer Valley and isnt the name of an old airline has it on their website that the FAA predicts such a shortage"

Don't get me started....

PanAm has THE worst marketing. Worse than DCA, even.
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Uh, he said "isn't the name of an old airline" ... But apparently DVT has some marketing problems up there :)
 
Re: Where is thie pilot shortage..

Sorry, I read that too fast...

Know what, Pan Am's marketing still sucks. Thanks for the chance to mention it.
 
Re: Where is thie pilot shortage..

Nevertheless, the marketing agenda of the schools is tacky. Maybe there is going to be a shortage, maybe there wont be. Who knows?
 
Re: Where is thie pilot shortage..

meritflyer said:
Nevertheless, the marketing agenda of the schools is tacky. Maybe there is going to be a shortage, maybe there wont be. Who knows?
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Yes, it is tacky, but, they are able to twist a version of their truth to their advantage.....:whatever:
 
Re: Where is thie pilot shortage..

Highly doofus.

They were talking about "OMG! LOOMING PILOT SHORTAGE COMING! TRAIN HERE! PAY $500 FOR A FAPA MEMBERSHIP NOW!!!!1111oneoneone" when I was in high school in the mid 1980's.

Ahh yes.
 
Re: Where is thie pilot shortage..

There MIGHT be a shortage if American, United, Delta, USair, and Northwest recalled all of their pilotsand needed to hire 400 a year each, as well as Continental (hopefully mainline) takes delivery of 80+ EMB-170s and a boatload of 787 as well. That only if it all happeed in the span of 2 months. and the shortage would only be for two months.
 
Re: Where is thie pilot shortage..

All in all there is only one thing certain about the future........ There are many people who can predict the future, and even more that will be incorrect about what will happen.... No way to really know what is going to happen in any field aviation or non aviation related. Although I was under the assumption as well the numbers were pre 9/11 and they would be a little skewed now.
 
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