Where are the airline pilots going to come from?

I guess I'd ask why any of us CARE where the next generation of airline pilots come from. Like, what difference does that make to me? All I see on this forum is little poops looking for the fastest way to screw everyone else. Same as it ever was. Where do the next generation of airline pilots come from? YOU figure it out. I'm not quite sure why they pay you, but that must be part of it, Captain X. In the meantime, FU. Live by the sword and die by it. Hopefully soon.
 
I disagree. This is a fair question because it speaks to the desirability of flying as a career choice. I doubt pilots are staying away, at least in significant enough numbers to influence hiring. Back in the late 90's Johnny Ornstein said in an interview that he was paying pilots too much because everytime he ran an initial the class was full and he had thousands of resumes.

So as much as we might complain, this profession is still somewhat desirable. The quality of the candidate may not be what we wish it was... But that is neither here nor there.

I don't foresee any noticeable impact of a shortage on the ability to obtain an interview and then get hired at the major of your choice. This ain't 1999. You'll apply to everyone, go to the first one who calls, and pray that it works out long enough for you to retire.
 
I dont know if its enough to actually influence hiring, but i know more and more pilots, myself included, are making a conscious decision to NOT go to the airlines. I just dont see the upside. These days a regional job looks like its turning into a career.

Lets say you get hired at 25 at regional X, spend five years in the right seat, and five in the left, and maybe lucky enough to not get furloughed. Your fifth in the right seat might get you 40k, your fifth in the left will get you maybe 65, 70k. You throw in a resume at a legacy, get hired and start all over. Now you're 35, looking at getting upgraded maybe by the time you're 45. That leaves 20 good years of captain pay, if you dont get furloughed. Lets use WN as an example, the way i figure over a 20 years your pay as captain will average out to about 165k/yr. Pretty good living, but is it worth what it takes to get there, if you can even get there? Is the QOL there? I dont know. I do know that i dont wanna go through all that.

People are starting to realize the airlines aint the end all be all. Theres more out there. I'm pretty content with 50-60/yr flying pistons around, being home every night, and having weekends off. Maybe a cherry corporate gig will fall in my lap one day; but airlines, for me, are out of the question.

If the question is why pilots dont want to go to the airlines, well, thats MY reason for not wanting to go. Theres other things that factor into it. After 3500 hours, with 3300 being PIC, do i really want to sit right seat and start all over swinging gear and making radio calls for poverty wages. Like it or not, we all have a lifestyle and ive become pretty accustomed to mine. 21 bucks an hour sitting ready reserve aint gonna get it for me.

Those are just my thoughts, and the reasons why im one less pilot that wont be in the hiring pool.
 
this is in response to "cmill"....i have a new computer and cannot figure out how to reply with qoutes.

I used to feel the same as you but when you do the math, by the fourth year an FO in your example is making almost the same money as the 135 pilot.
I am just playing devil's advocate as it sounds like we had similar 135 experience. I felt like I had to make the jump to 121 before I had kids/bought a house and then would not be able to make the switch. (mortage and cannot afford the paycut)
Looking long term, I think the paycheck will be better.
 
Click "reply" on the post of which you would like to quote.
 
nwpac said:
this is in response to "cmill"....i have a new computer and cannot figure out how to reply with qoutes.

I used to feel the same as you but when you do the math, by the fourth year an FO in your example is making almost the same money as the 135 pilot.
I am just playing devil's advocate as it sounds like we had similar 135 experience. I felt like I had to make the jump to 121 before I had kids/bought a house and then would not be able to make the switch. (mortage and cannot afford the paycut)
Looking long term, I think the paycheck will be better.
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I'm not saying everyone should take the same route, in the long run, yes its a lot more money at the airlines. Its not unreasonable to break 100k in the corporate market either, though. Right now, for me, its about QOL. I work 8 hour duty days (for the most part) five days a week. I think if more people stopped chasing a pay check and just found the right balance of money and quality, then there would be a lot less bitching. It's an amazing thing when you actually love your job and not show up to work everyday wanting to stab the first person you see in the eye with a ball point pen.
 
I'd give up on the whole rat race, and go back to flying in Alaska if I could do it on floats and make enough money to have a family, house, etc - and I love my job. I'm just not sure its necessarily possible to do it. I miss the hell out of flying up north, think about it every day. Miss being close to home, and living by an ocean where there aren't that many people...but, I don't want to get pigeon-holed into that type of work where I can never go elsewhere else. I mean, hell, guys who were at Wings for 20 years were leaving, SkagAir folded, and LAB (though they did suck) got shut down. Even in the float operators out of JNU, Alaska Seaplanes got bought out (don't know about the new management at all), and half of the others are gone. In the rest of Alaska, its wheel planes, or seasonal work, and the pay isn't what it used to be. At least on wheels, after multiple years of trying to advance up the "ranks" the truth hit me, "I can't go anywhere from here except onto more bush jobs or jobs in the states that don't pay anything." I made the plunge, have been making less, but at least I feel like I'm moving in a direction that will offer more long-term security.

If I can get on at a "Major-National-LCC or a Legacy" (like everyone else) then if the market bombs, my company goes under and I'm back to square one, at least I've got the requisite experience to go into another job that pays a liveable wage - theoretically.

The only other viable option I see is to go back to that kind of flying, then save my pennies and start my own company. Because I've never met any pilots that were "well off" only owners.
 
cmill said:
Lets say you get hired at 25 at regional X, spend five years in the right seat, and five in the left, and maybe lucky enough to not get furloughed. Your fifth in the right seat might get you 40k, your fifth in the left will get you maybe 65, 70k. You throw in a resume at a legacy, get hired and start all over. Now you're 35, looking at getting upgraded maybe by the time you're 45. That leaves 20 good years of captain pay, if you dont get furloughed. Lets use WN as an example, the way i figure over a 20 years your pay as captain will average out to about 165k/yr. Pretty good living, but is it worth what it takes to get there, if you can even get there? Is the QOL there? I dont know. I do know that i dont wanna go through all that.
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I think you're lowballing the numbers. There are regional FOs on here that claim to make 50-60K, and Captains that do 80+,both with two weeks off a month is they so choose. As far as WN, they state their average FO makes 140K and Captains 230K. Using 100 and 200 as an example, in a 30 year career your income potential is roughly 5 million. In a 30 year career with your hypothetical 100K corporate gig you're looking at 3 mil. Obviously all these numbers are pretty speculative. YMMV.

If the question is why pilots dont want to go to the airlines, well, thats MY reason for not wanting to go. Theres other things that factor into it. After 3500 hours, with 3300 being PIC, do i really want to sit right seat and start all over swinging gear and making radio calls for poverty wages. Like it or not, we all have a lifestyle and ive become pretty accustomed to mine. 21 bucks an hour sitting ready reserve aint gonna get it for me.
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I know it's fashionable around here to dog on first year regional pay and lifestyle, but it's very much worth mentioning that it changes rapidly.

Ultimately, you can't win if you don't play.


cmill said:
It's an amazing thing when you actually love your job and not show up to work everyday wanting to stab the first person you see in the eye with a ball point pen.
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I know a few guys that fly for the airlines and love it. I hope to be one one day. All that said having done the cool piston 135 VFR gigs it's hard to leave that lifestyle.
 
ppragman said:
I miss the hell out of flying up north, think about it every day.
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+ 1,000,000

I'll never have as much fun in an airplane as we used to scaring passengers while departing to the north in Skagway.

If I can get on at a "Major-National-LCC or a Legacy" (like everyone else) then if the market bombs, my company goes under and I'm back to square one, at least I've got the requisite experience to go into another job that pays a liveable wage - theoretically.
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And Bethel is so lovely in the winter......
 
TallFlyer said:
I think you're lowballing the numbers. There are regional FOs on here that claim to make 50-60K, and Captains that do 80+,both with two weeks off a month is they so choose. As far as WN, they state their average FO makes 140K and Captains 230K. Using 100 and 200 as an example, in a 30 year career your income potential is roughly 5 million. In a 30 year career with your hypothetical 100K corporate gig you're looking at 3 mil. Obviously all these numbers are pretty speculative. YMMV.


I know it's fashionable around here to dog on first year regional pay and lifestyle, but it's very much worth mentioning that it changes rapidly.

Ultimately, you can't win if you don't play.



I know a few guys that fly for the airlines and love it. I hope to be one one day. All that said having done the cool piston 135 VFR gigs it's hard to leave that lifestyle.
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I wasnt trying to lowball the numbers, I got them off of APC. It might be low, but i wasnt trying to skew it, i just went with the guarantee. It prolly works out a lot higher, but it just isnt fair to count something that isnt guaranteed. I mean, i made 15k in "over-time" last year, but i dont really count that as salary, because it could go away in a heartbeat. I budget for my guaranteed salary.

True, it is cool to knock on first year regional guys, and in the long run, they might be better off. It all depends on how the cards fall. Being a current piston 135 guy, im not sure its all that cool. Its not glamorous, and everyone thinks you have zero prospects, or when you'll be a "real" pilot. I might not ever be a real pilot if it means going to the airlines, but i get my twin time, my ifr time, and solidify a niche with the float plane flying.

There tons of guys with turbine time, but how many with float plane time? Or how many with float plane time and turbine time? Its easy to poo-poo a piston gig, just like it is a regional gig. In the end, the best thing for guys like me are all the other people that think a pilot living cant be made in a niche market.
 
The reason they are having trouble recruiting regional airline pilots is because pilots simply can't afford to work for $22,000 a year. The numbers just do not work. Prices have gone up over the last four years. You now need a part time job in order to be able to afford to be a pilot.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that spending $100,000 (in the current environment) or more to get your ratings (and time in) does not work when the pay is $22,000 a year.

We have gone though 5 years of a recession in this country. Wages have gone down for many people. (including pilots and non pilots). Some estimate 50% of the US workers today are making less than they did 5 years ago. That is probably not far off. Many are unemployed. Many are under employed. Small Business (which drives this economy) is wounded.

Almost EVERYTHING has INCREASED in price because it takes fuel to make it or transport it. We still have fuel priced at non sustainable levels. Until the fuel prices are brought in line, we are not going to get out of this mess. I still shake my head that the airlines largest expense is fuel at 30% of the ticket price. This can not last. It is not sustainable and we should have never ever gotten here in the first place. Donald Trump is correct when he tells us that OPEC is screwing us over. Let's add banks and Wall Street to that list as well.

Think about how much the price of food has increased and add that to the price of how much gasoline (for your car or truck) has increased and then factor in the decline in wages and this should indicate that we now have an aviation education training program that is not economically sustainable even though there are still many that want to enter this career.

We used to call this, "hitting the wall". That means we can go no further until a solution is in place.

Joe
 
The only suggestion I have for you is this. If you think you might like to try the airlines - even the majors - do so while you are young and free from family financial obligations.

Once you are older - with a family, a mortgage, children, and (perhaps more importantly) a well paying job it is significantly harder to make that mid-life career change. Even if your current position doesn't pay great, we all become accustomed to the lifestyle that our salaries provide us. It's called the golden handcuffs and you will find that once you hit six figures the decision to then pursue an airline - even a major - is much harder. This is because you have to look much more closely, not only at how long it will take you to get back to six figures, but add to that how long it will take you to recoup what was lost in the gap. Add to that the financial and personal disincentive of a commute and you can see that even a job which, long term, might be a much better deal for you and your family can be a difficult or impossible choice.

Full disclosure: I'm 38 ... Which sounds older than I feel.
 
One thing that I always found was that people fail to take into account the expense required for commuting. Yes, it's nice to live in AZ and commute to ORD and not live in the winter full time. However I always ran into folks that would be on year 1 or 2 pay at my regional who wouldn't/couldn't afford a crashpad in domicile. So instead you end up with a lot of people essentially moving into the crew room full time when they are in town for work. (Esp. true for FA's at this company). I don't know how normal this is at other regionals, but it seemed kind of crazy that we have to be psuedo-vagrants because the rate of pay can't sustain a viable option.

Another thing to consider...sure a crashpad may cost you an extra 100/200 month. How about living in base? I find that most bases in the major cities are fairly expensive on first year pay anyway. So the question becomes...do you pay the 100/200 per month extra for a crashpad, or do you relocate and pay 100/200 more in total rent from your current location. Taking into account the moving expense of $500-1000+gas+lodging+food along the way and you're already a large chunk in the hole before you even start. All that can be a tough call to make, and would depend on the individual and their family situation at the time.

Lastly, the fact that if I leave a call center job and return to 121 aviation I will take a paycut is pretty unfortunate. I realize that customer service is important, but I should not make more than I would as a regional FO. YMMV.
 
cmill said:
I wasnt trying to lowball the numbers, I got them off of APC. It might be low, but i wasnt trying to skew it, i just went with the guarantee. It prolly works out a lot higher, but it just isnt fair to count something that isnt guaranteed. I mean, i made 15k in "over-time" last year, but i dont really count that as salary, because it could go away in a heartbeat. I budget for my guaranteed salary.
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I work at a commuter. First year was $27k give or take. Two years ago, year 5, I made $90.5k + 8% 401k match. This year, year 6 I made around $106k + 8% 401k match. I was reserve for both those years save for the last 5 months of last year I had a line. Was it worth making under $30k my first year? You 'betcha.

EDIT: Previous year pay was incorrect
 
wheelsup said:
I work at a commuter. First year was $27k give or take. Two years ago, year 5, I made $95.5k + 8% 401k match. This year, year 6 I made around $106k + 8% 401k match. I was reserve for both those years save for the last 5 months of last year I had a line. Was it worth making under $30k my first year? You 'betcha.
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You also work your ass off.
 
jynxyjoe said:
You also work your ass off.
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As if there is something wrong with that? I still had several 2+ week long vacations in there. I think 23 days off in May and not sure total amount but 18 in a row over Thanksgiving between the two months.
 
wheelsup said:
As if there is something wrong with that? I still had several 2+ week long vacations in there. I think 23 days off in May and not sure total amount but 18 in a row over Thanksgiving between the two months.
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I'm struggling to see where I said there was something wrong with that. Because you had 2+ week long vacations in the year you are saying you didn't work your ass off? The last PM I got from you about your working schedule (because I questioned you on your credit) showed you to be working as much as you possibly could. I deleted the PM long ago but I remember you said you were going under your min days off a month.

I don't think there's anything wrong with putting your statement above in the context of you like working your ass off. If so let me know.
 
Eyes on the prize fellas. He who makes the most money having worked the least (and has a little fun along the way) wins.

Work to live. Don't live to work.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
Eyes on the prize fellas. He who makes the most money having worked the least (and has a little fun along the way) wins.

Work to live. Don't live to work.
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Well everyone's different. I get the impression Wheelsup will slow down someday, but for right now he's happy racking up the time and money. It's guys like him that give me 18 days off a month so shush!

I remember the day I stopped caring about working as much as I could. Went through 1000tpic and was debt free. This month I'm trying reserve last out just to see if I can get paid the whole month to sit at home. Fingers crossed so far it's been great. Although if I have to go to work I'll be hurting because I haven't shaved in about 10 days.
 
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