Where are the airline pilots going to come from?

You're citing the "appeal to the crowd" fallacy. Just because everyone else thinks it's better doesn't mean it's better. And even if it's better from an objective sense, doesn't mean it's better for the individual. :)
Very true. However, the lifestyle of the airlines change so rapidly it is conceivable that it would be the best fit for a given person again (or not). Does the 135 industry stay fairly constant?
 
Very true. However, the lifestyle of the airlines change so rapidly it is conceivable that it would be the best fit for a given person again (or not). Does the 135 industry stay fairly constant?

For me it has so far. :) The only constant in the 135 world that I have seen is change. Runs are constantly moving around. With that said, I have heard almost nothing about the 121 world that interests me. Maybe I'm too young and stupid to figure it out, but when even the people telling me to go are phrasing it in a way that's akin to "I know it sucks, but get your seniority number so you'll be higher up the list and it'll suck less sooner," I'd just as soon find another way to live.
 
For me it has so far. :) The only constant in the 135 world that I have seen is change. Runs are constantly moving around. With that said, I have heard almost nothing about the 121 world that interests me. Maybe I'm too young and stupid to figure it out, but when even the people telling me to go are phrasing it in a way that's akin to "I know it sucks, but get your seniority number so you'll be higher up the list and it'll suck less sooner," I'd just as soon find another way to live.
Lol, I know I know. I made out very well, but there are 5 others for every one of me that haven't. I haven't even made out like a bandit, I just did alright. It's not for everyone, but 50 grand to sit in the right seat and read and I'm in my bed 20 or so days a month with 14 or so days off (picking up open time). Of course life is going the other way now that Mem has turned into a senior base with this merger, but once I'm in JFK on the -200 or something i'll be fine. This month I'm trying out reserve (last out). I'm hoping to not fly the whole month, we'll see what happens. experimenting is always painful.
 
We all wanted to be airline pilots because of videos like this


And then a year or so in you realize what the job really entails for the first decade of your career
 
From today's AvWeb:


December 30, 2011

Airline Pilots: Is Anybody Interested in Being One?
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By Captain X



Captain X is a training Captain for a well-known regional airline and occasional correspondent to AVweb and our aviation publications. We're publishing his compelling observations as a guest blog. --Paul Bertorelli

We can't quite put our fingers on what's occurring in the industry right now. I've talked to my counterparts at other regional airlines and they all are seeing the same thing. For lack of a better description, a large percentage of newly hired airline pilots just aren't as excited about their career prospects as they used to be.

During our last hiring boom in 2007 and 2008, it seemed as if we had people climbing all over each other just to get an interview. Now, we'll frequently call 10 for an interview and only five will show up. I don't know if other airlines are hiring them before we can interview them or what, but it just seems the level of interest in our industry isn't there.

Of those who do come to the interview, we are appalled at how many show up and can't pass a written test. Our interview test isn't that hard. It's straight out of the FAA commercial pilot written. We have a couple of questions we took straight from the AIM. I'm amazed at how many people who want to be airline pilots struggle to interpret a TAF! I mean if you want an airline job, wouldn't you at least review the rules on holding pattern speeds and what an ILS Critical Area sign looks like?

Then we send them on to a basic instrument proficiency checkout in an Elite PCATD. Again, it's shocking how many people can't scan a basic six-pack. Is it because Cessnas today have G-1000's? I actually interviewed one candidate who got so slow on an ILS that he stalled and went out of control. He probably would have gotten lost in the holding pattern, except he never got there because he turned the wrong way when I told him to go directly to the VOR. He couldn't read the HSI well enough to know whether he was TO or FROM.

Even those who do get hired seem to lack a basic knowledge of operating in an IFR environment. One of my instructors came to me one day in the middle of a lesson and he was extremely frustrated. He said he couldn't introduce any emergencies to the crew he was working with in the procedures trainer because they were struggling so hard just to navigate. And this was with the FMS fully functional!

It seems that there are a lot of students who think "close enough" is close enough. We tell them on day one of Basic Indoc (and every day thereafter) how important it is to learn their callouts, flows and profiles. Twenty-one days later, they're still arguing with us that they have the callouts down "pretty well." In our program, they don't even go to the simulator until they've spent 13 days in the procedures trainer, and we still have students who struggle to get ready for the sim.

We've discussed this amongst ourselves and think there are many issues at work here: (1) Maybe the younger generation just has a sense of entitlement. I know I sound like an old man here, but there really is a perceptible difference in work ethic from young pilots today and new pilots just four years ago. One of my most senior ground instructors mentioned that it's just different this time around.

(2) The industry has driven the good people away: The last four years have not been kind to the airline industry. Maybe today's best and brightest have decided to go to medical school instead of pursuing their real dream of aviation. I live in the midwest and I think everyone around here knows someone who used to fly for either Delta or Comair who has been devastated by what happened at Delta over the last few years. A friend of mine on furlough tried to get a state grant to get re-trained with a 737 type rating so he could apply to Southwest. In the past, other pilots have been able to do that. This time around, the state of Ohio denied his request by saying that basically they didn't think there would be enough flying jobs in the future to support him and that his retraining grant needed to be spent pursuing another career. It doesn't take long for word to get around that flying isn't exactly the positive career choice it used to be.

(3) The upcoming 1500-hour / ATP minimum requirement for all airline pilots might be scaring away good people. The ATP rule won't go into effect until 2013, so this is a perfect time to get an airline job. In two years of flying 85 hours a month, it'll be easy to beef up the logbook. This may be the last time in history that a guy with less than 1000 hours has a shot at an airline career. But I'm concerned that some pilots have only heard part of the story and have given up, thinking the rule is already in effect.

(4) Now that we're all wired and connected to the cloud, we just process information differently: My company is taking a hard look at our training procedures to see if we can present the information in a way that's more exciting for tech-savvy pilots. Unfortunately, many regional airlines see their training departments as expenses rather than investments, so there's not exactly an open checkbook for new training initiatives.

(5) Economic hard times have made it difficult for instrument pilots to stay proficient if they're paying for their time themselves. I'll be honest; I don't know if I could have afforded to get all my ratings in today's fuel environment. I paid between $50 and $85 an hour to rent most of my training planes, and I struggled to do that. That was when avgas was about $1.50 a gallon. Throw in reduced hours at work or downright unemployment, and staying proficient takes a back seat. We're seeing a lot of people coming in the door who haven't touched an airplane for three years!

(6) No one is getting commercial pilots' licenses any more. The FAA will tell you that the number of commercial pilots licenses issued has plummeted in the last three years. It is only a fraction of what it was four years ago. That means that the regionals are going to be competing for a smaller and smaller pool of pilots. When that happens, the quality of the candidate pool remaining quickly drops.

Everyone on the inside of the industry sees it, but none of us knows exactly what "it" is yet. I personally think it's a combination of all the above factors.

I'm not sure what the answer is, but we are working hard to find one.
 
We all wanted to be airline pilots because of videos like this


And then a year or so in you realize what the job really entails for the first decade of your career



So, you are saying that the reality of the job doesn't match with the fantasy you all had when you started?
 
I've been in this game for 4 years now and still enjoying it and learning new stuff everyday. Everything has been stuck in a rut for since age 65 was implemented in Dec 07. Even Kit Darby saw 5 years of little to no hiring and shut down Air Inc. Aspiring pilots staring down 3-5 years of instructing before getting into the right seat of an RJ for 20k first year saw the same thing and jumped for another career. I believe we'll see a big change for the better industry wide starting Dec 2012
 
Who really wants to go and work a job that will keep you away from home for days on end, pay you just enough money to afford a crash pad if you have ANY kind of debt, and be treated like a pee-on by most of the management out there with such a volatile market that a furlough is only a few weeks away nearly 100% of the time. The airlines seem to be operating on such thin margins, that most of the "bright" people have come to realize that, and stay away.

Just an outsider looking in to the 121 world. But all of that, from reading a crap ton of posts on this and other aviation forums has steered me away from anything 121 at the moment. Maybe in the future when I can take a job with a respectable carrier, but not right now.
 
Really? It's honestly not that complex. Quality compensation attracts quality applicants.

Yzou get what you pay for. Offer pay that attracts people who live with thier parents, and they can tell their friends "I'm so cool cause I fly JETZZZZ" and thats what you get.
 
So, you are saying that the reality of the job doesn't match with the fantasy you all had when you started?

When I came to my four year school for a degree of professional flight management I was oblivious to industry standards and how low they were for those starting out. Before I decided to go into this field with this school I talked to a United 777 captain and two Southwest captains about the industry and their jobs...it may have been skewed opinions.
 
but 50 grand to sit in the right seat and read and I'm in my bed 20 or so days a month with 14 or so days off

Yikes. Our newhire FOs make considerably more than that with roughly the same number of nights at home.
 
I've been fortunate (I guess) to have my flight training span both the pre and post 9/11 era. I began training for my PPL at 16 ... $40 an hour for a 150 ($45 for the 152 ... sometimes I splurged) ... and $25 for instruction.

When I actually finished my PPL nearly 10 years later ... it was $85 for a 150, and $35 for the instruction.

That same flight school has gotten rid of their 150s ... now it's $125 for a 172 and $45 for instruction.

So from $65 to $170 an hour to get in the game ... in about a 14-year period. I understand inflation and all, but I don't think anyone's salary has increased enough to cover that spread.

The costs are insurmountable - and not just for students. There was a letter in EAA SportAviation a month or two ago where a guy talked about owning a few Mooney's over the past 20 years, but having to get out of aviation altogether because costs had gotten out of control. I think that's happening a lot more than you think. Just recently happened to me.

GA is dying ... at the last the piston part of it.
 
...GA is dying ... at the last the piston part of it.
It really is. I had a smidge of hope with recreational pilots, but when I look at a Skycatchers price tag of $130K, well, hope has left the building. I really would not want to be in charge of hiring in 15 years, because it will be tough. Ab-initio may become common place. For the 135 mom and pops, dunno.
 
You know, it wasn't unreasonable 30 years ago for an average guy to own a 1/2 share of a very decent airplane. I still remember looking at Flying Magazine and even purchasing an airplane was completely affordable.

Now it's like "Wow, you own a 35 year old Cessna... Are you a bastard child of Ivan Boesky or a Kardashian?"
 
You know, it wasn't unreasonable 30 years ago for an average guy to own a 1/2 share of a very decent airplane. I still remember looking at Flying Magazine and even purchasing an airplane was completely affordable.

Now it's like "Wow, you own a 35 year old Cessna... Are you a bastard child of Ivan Boesky or a Kardashian?"

When do you want to go fly a 35 year old Cessna located at KDVT?
 
When do you want to go fly a 35 year old Cessna located at KDVT?

I'm home all month*! :) Dad still have that KLN89 in that thing? I still remember, back in the 1980's thinking, "WOW! That thing is showing PRC to ATL?! It knows the direction and it's like a MILLION miles away!"






*well, most of it.
 
You know, it wasn't unreasonable 30 years ago for an average guy to own a 1/2 share of a very decent airplane. I still remember looking at Flying Magazine and even purchasing an airplane was completely affordable.

Now it's like "Wow, you own a 35 year old Cessna... Are you a bastard child of Ivan Boesky or a Kardashian?"

Correct; we used to own a 1/2 share in a very decent airplane.
 
Yeah, for its time it was state of the art. The LORAN is still in it too. Dumb move to decommission the entire system......would be smart to not put all eggs in the GPS basket.
 
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