What would it take for 'the regionals' to cease to exist?

PhilosopherPilot said:
There will be enough hiring that anyone who wants to leave will be able to. Legacy FO is far better than regional captain, in my opinion. Better pay, better stability. Go somewhere that the name on the paycheck matches the name on the plane.
Click to expand...

I agree with you but unfortunately most of my CA's don't. A lot of them are at a stage in their life where they are starting to realize that although more money would be nice it's not worth moving their young kids and wife and a lot are actually originally from this out station base so a lot of their extended family, parents etc are here. They wouldnt dare take a pay cut and attempt to commute on reserve and take a short term loss for a long term gain. I wish they would take your advice and get out of my seat so the 6 year upgrade drops. :)
 
Derg said:
Regionals will continue start small from the wreckage of the last critical mass regional, reach critical mass themselves, increase costs, then be broken up.

The cycle has repeated itself several times and only the names have changed.

Anyone remember Mesa? Yeah, "They were different!" uh huh.
Click to expand...

According to FlightInfo, the more things change, the more Mesa still sucks.

hook_dupin said:
I think escaliting energy prices will drive this. I think a smaller number of larger aircraft will grow to become more cost-effective than continuous RJ service. You said it...customer is shopping for price and convenience. What's the order that they care about those? For most air travelers, I argue price. My bet is that legacy carriers will attempt to keep prices down in the face of growing energy costs by trading fewer, more efficient flights at the expense of their contract carriers.
Click to expand...

A certain regional is buying a lot of not-regional sized airplanes. Actually, a few regional airlines already have what I would consider non-regional jets, and those fleets are probably going to grow.
 
At some point, there are so many bankruptcies and mergers that can happen. Some airline needs to start making a profit. I would venture to guess that most operators running short hops in RJs are bleeding cash. If the pilot shortage ends up being real, the regionals are going to start hurting for pilots and canceling flights, so there goes the frequency argument. When that happens, then it will make sense to run higher capacity, less frequent mainline loads.

Granted, it would take the perfect storm, but we will see.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
50? Where did you find that number? Most people consider the cut off between 40 and 45. Anything later isn't financially viable.

Leaving a >$100,000 job is tough because you take the initial loss and then even once you are back to your present rate of pay, you have to make up for what was lost and then consider the value of that money had you been investing it during the interim.

I'm 3 months from turning 40 and struggling with that decision right now.
Click to expand...

If your job were stable at $100,000 I would agree. But it isn't. You may be there for ten more years, and then be 50 and unemployed, starting at the major anyway because you're on the street scrambling for a job.

Plus, I'm a "whole package" kind of guy. My QOL is better as a junior reserve FO, with $15,000 less than a junior captain at the regional. Next year I'll be nearly on par with my old pay. Year after that, greater than. So yeah, pay takes a hit, but QOL is way better. I'd rather make less money, but live better. That's just me though. Studies have shown that anything over about $75,000 per year doesn't increase happiness. In fact, at a certain point more money trends to less happiness.

QOL is better just not having to look over your shoulder at the other regionals, wondering who will under cut you next year.
 
What about the elimination of 50 seaters? It seems much of mainline is wanting to phase them out. Other then the SKW deal on those 175s, I dont see places like UA flipping the bill for new jets for everyone who flies 50 seaters. I can see consolidation on the regional level, but I don't think they will ever completely cease to exist.
 
Derg said:
Regionals will continue start small from the wreckage of the last critical mass regional, reach critical mass themselves, increase costs, then be broken up.

The cycle has repeated itself several times and only the names have changed.
Click to expand...


The economics of small, growing regionals are attractive. They have the lions share of employees at the bottom of their payscales. After a few years, they are no longer growing and the more senior workforce makes them less competitive. It is a positive feedback loop that ensures their ultimate demise.
 
What is going to get rid of Regionals?

Flying Cars!

images
 
Autothrust Blue said:
According to FlightInfo, the more things change, the more Mesa still sucks.



A certain regional is buying a lot of not-regional sized airplanes. Actually, a few regional airlines already have what I would consider non-regional jets, and those fleets are probably going to grow.
Click to expand...

What is the definition of regional? I say in the 30 seat range max personally. No SLC-SFO legs or the like either.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
Thanks! Toughest decision I ever had to make. Can't shake the feeling that I'm making a horrible mistake.
Click to expand...

I've followed your posts throughout the years and if I were you, I'd make the jump. It's not like you would be going to a bad place. I do think they have significant challenges ahead, will probably merge, and go through some down times, but overall, I think they will survive.

PS-I remember the 'list' you made a few years ago. How we have to eat our words at times. I never need to on here, but always with the wifey. ;-)
 
I think that the regional routes will be first drastically reduced, then absorbed by mainline, while keeping the large regionl aircraft...kind of like what it sems Lufthansa has going in Germany. All mainline pilots. At the end of the day I think this is the cheapest model.
 
Hey Zap. I saw your post where you are saying you have a decision to make. Do you still have your number at US Airways? I'm not getting it. If you go to a regional as a 100K a year Walmart Capt I'd say you're crazy. If you went to a Jetblue, a Virgin, or a even an Alligent, I'd say more power to you. But I keep thinking you have a number at US Airways. I'd stay put unless you can recoup your current pay in 5 years. And if I had a number at US Airways, I'd follow that in a heartbeat if I was 40.
 
DE727UPS said:
Hey Zap. I saw your post where you are saying you have a decision to make. Do you still have your number at US Airways? I'm not getting it. If you go to a regional as a 100K a year Walmart Capt I'd say you're crazy. If you went to a Jetblue, a Virgin, or a even an Alligent, I'd say more power to you. But I keep thinking you have a number at US Airways. I'd stay put unless you can recoup your current pay in 5 years. And if I had a number at US Airways, I'd follow that in a heartbeat if I was 40.
Click to expand...
Unless he is under a different pay structure pay at Wal-Mart starts at 50k and tops at 80k according to recruiters at a recent job fair.
 
If that's the case, how long does it take to make 80 at a regional? I'm gonna say 10 years. Also, a corporate background might allow a sideways move to better pay if flippin' Walmart can't pay better than 80K. I'd just hate to see him head for a regional with his background. I'm hoping I'm missing something.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top