What would it take for 'the regionals' to cease to exist?

WhatRJ

WhatRJ

Well-Known Member
Im interested in hearing what you folks (who currently work for or know a great deal about the regionals) think it would take for the 'regionals' to disappear. I know this likely wont happen as they are a pivotal stepping stone for getting to the majors and time building but lets just talk hypothetically.

A huge merger into 1 or 2 'super' regionals? Throw some theories at me :)
 
The majors seem to like pitting regional vs regional to get better service and mostly lower prices. If they don't want a super-regional, it's not likely to happen!
 
WhatRJ said:
Im interested in hearing what you folks (who currently work for or know a great deal about the regionals) think it would take for the 'regionals' to disappear. I know this likely wont happen as they are a pivotal stepping stone for getting to the majors and time building but lets just talk hypothetically.

A huge merger into 1 or 2 'super' regionals? Throw some theories at me :)
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Well they already don't exist as they did in the 70s then 80s and then 90s. A regional airplane is a 1900, EMB-110/120 or a -8, but probably not the 400. Is guess a pa31 and 402 fit in there nicely to. So will they exist as they are now? Probably not. They'll probably be flying something even bigger for even less money. That'd be my guess. "RJs" made by the Canadians or Brazilians that hold 150 and can do trans-cons for $18/hr up front.
 
As soon as regionals become economically non-viable, to the point that it's cheaper for mainline flying to do the work themselves, they will disappear. Until then, they serve an economic need for larger companies to the detriment of our careers.

That's what created the regionals, and that's what will destroy the regionals. Any other discussion is fruitless.
 
It's more likely, in the not-so-distant future, 'regionals' will do a majority domestic routes with 'majors' flying almost exclusively international routes.

The profession has degraded this far in the last 30 years, what exactly makes you think it would get better?
 
FlyingPoke said:
It's more likely, in the not-so-distant future, 'regionals' will do a majority domestic routes with 'majors' flying almost exclusively international routes.

The profession has degraded this far in the last 30 years, what exactly makes you think it would get better?
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I'm an outsider, but I see the opposite. I think the main carriers will take back more of their work. A city that was served by 8 RJ flights a day may only get a 737 twice a day.
 
Regionals will continue start small from the wreckage of the last critical mass regional, reach critical mass themselves, increase costs, then be broken up.

The cycle has repeated itself several times and only the names have changed.

Anyone remember Mesa? Yeah, "They were different!" uh huh.
 
WhatRJ said:
Im interested in hearing what you folks (who currently work for or know a great deal about the regionals) think it would take for the 'regionals' to disappear. I know this likely wont happen as they are a pivotal stepping stone for getting to the majors and time building but lets just talk hypothetically.

A huge merger into 1 or 2 'super' regionals? Throw some theories at me :)
Click to expand...

A stepping stone? Most of the captains I fly with make 90k+, live in the outstation base, 15-18 days off and haven't updated their logbook in at least 9 years or filled out a mainline app. The regionals use to be a stepping stone back in the day but after a stagnant decade with little major hiring a lot of lifers were created.
 
hook_dupin said:
I'm an outsider, but I see the opposite. I think the main carriers will take back more of their work. A city that was served by 8 RJ flights a day may only get a 737 twice a day.
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All just my opinion of course, as I'm also an outsider, but... Flexibility in choosing flights is what the consumer is shopping for - outside of price, of course. Why would mainline take back the flying and fly 'a 737 twice a day' for nearly the same cost as a regional can do the 8 trips for?

It's obvious the flying public doesn't value customer service (assuming you believe a Major is any better at customer service than a Regional), so there is no incentive to 'take the flying back'.
 
It takes a certain demand to generate the product that has been so oversimplified today. Customers want cheap and quick (frequency).

There's a saying that a customer can only have two of the three things but never all three at once. Cheap, fast, quality.

Cheap & Fast, but it won't be Quality.
Cheap & Quality, but it won't be Fast.
Fast & Quality, but it won't be Cheap.

The demand would have to shift to higher class people who demand a Quality product, and are willing to pay the price for it. Otherwise, it will continue to be the high frequency low cost carriers that win most of the customers...
 
Jet said:
A stepping stone? Most of the captains I fly with make 90k+, live in the outstation base, 15-18 days off and haven't updated their logbook in at least 9 years or filled out a mainline app. The regionals use to be a stepping stone back in the day but after a stagnant decade with little major hiring a lot of lifers were created.
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Agreed, though anyone under 50-55 should probably get out. Just look at Comair and Pinnacle as excellent (recent) examples.

There will be enough hiring that anyone who wants to leave will be able to. Legacy FO is far better than regional captain, in my opinion. Better pay, better stability. Go somewhere that the name on the paycheck matches the name on the plane.
 
There are a lot of variables that could make express carriers grow, shrink or remain the same over the next ten years.
There is no reason united couldn't make a 70 seater into fsd profitable with united pilots at properly negotiated wages if they needed to secure the lift. #tehshortage

And the fact is that they are flying the heck out of full fifty seaters this summer.
Same with swa, I am always stuck in the jumpseat.
But economic hiccup or fuel crisis or you name it and it could all go back to 2008.
 
hook_dupin said:
I'm an outsider, but I see the opposite. I think the main carriers will take back more of their work. A city that was served by 8 RJ flights a day may only get a 737 twice a day.
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Delda is starting that a bit with Moline(MLI), one A319 and 6 RJ flights to ATL. Soon to be 2 Airbi and 4 RJs, and so on hopefully. Which is good. I miss seeing mainline flying into my hometown.
 
PhilosopherPilot said:
Agreed, though anyone under 50-55 should probably get out.
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50? Where did you find that number? Most people consider the cut off between 40 and 45. Anything later isn't financially viable.

Leaving a >$100,000 job is tough because you take the initial loss and then even once you are back to your present rate of pay, you have to make up for what was lost and then consider the value of that money had you been investing it during the interim.

I'm 3 months from turning 40 and struggling with that decision right now.
 
What would it take? Re-regulation.

Too many pimps(majors), Johns(flying public), and the hoes(pilots) have terminal stockholm syndrome(SJS).
 
PhilosopherPilot said:
Agreed, though anyone under 50-55 should probably get out. Just look at Comair and Pinnacle as excellent (recent) examples.

There will be enough hiring that anyone who wants to leave will be able to. Legacy FO is far better than regional captain, in my opinion. Better pay, better stability. Go somewhere that the name on the paycheck matches the name on the plane.
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Those pinnacle guys that are senior were making 120 now making 85. they still get 15-18 days off. i doubt they are leaving. besides our age 63-65 are retiring in the next years so unless they are flowimg I doubt the top guys will leave.
 
FlyingPoke said:
All just my opinion of course, as I'm also an outsider, but... Flexibility in choosing flights is what the consumer is shopping for - outside of price, of course. Why would mainline take back the flying and fly 'a 737 twice a day' for nearly the same cost as a regional can do the 8 trips for?

It's obvious the flying public doesn't value customer service (assuming you believe a Major is any better at customer service than a Regional), so there is no incentive to 'take the flying back'.
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I think escaliting energy prices will drive this. I think a smaller number of larger aircraft will grow to become more cost-effective than continuous RJ service. You said it...customer is shopping for price and convenience. What's the order that they care about those? For most air travelers, I argue price. My bet is that legacy carriers will attempt to keep prices down in the face of growing energy costs by trading fewer, more efficient flights at the expense of their contract carriers.
 
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