What If?

[luke3]

these kind of threads make me very curious how things are going to go during the next industry hiccup for those that made it to career destinations in a blink

In a way I am totally part of that category and have been thinking of this as I'm going through Captain OE after just shy of 2 years at a legacy. Almost certainly if something happens I'm going back to the right seat. Maybe I can be the plug as WB FO if I chose to start commuting to soften the financial blow. Most likely I should be able to stay FO on my current plane or a smaller NB (fingers crossed). I'm ok with that. Sure it doesn't bring the joy and job satisfaction that being a Captain does for me, but it's still a good job. However if they start gutting contracts to try and bring pay and working conditions back to the lost decade, I'm out. I love flying but not enough to endure hardship for it. And despite many people seeing that as weakness and lack of commitment, I think it's a good thing. If more people were willing to not accept this BS they'd think twice before further devaluing this profession.

Speaking of "what ifs", I made the same exact decision in 2010. After my PPL I could have stayed in Europe and tried to go to an expensive ATPL program in hopes of navigating the post 2008 airline industry and get noticed by a ULCC recruiter. Or I could have gone into the P2F scheme with Ryanair. Neither paid well or had good QOL. My family probably had enough political connections to get me that dream job at Alitalia eventually. Not strong enough to network into their cadet program but after a few years of ULCC flying probably enough to get hired OTS. We all know how that would have gone. Years later they all had to reapply for their jobs at ITA for a significant pay cut after liquidation. I made more than what they're paying now flying 135, and it wasnt for a top tier company either. Besides, I didn't feel comfortable asking my parents for that much up front investment, for the chance of landing a pretty crappy job. So I said "forget it", moved to the US and pursued a different career field until 2018, coming in at a much better time and having a much better experience. So looking back, my decision worked out well for me, and I'm totally doing the same thing if the industry goes to • until it gets better again.

Sorry for the rant / wall of text, just wanted to give a potentially different perspective

 

[DE727UPS]

Nah, the 'what if' game is bad. Imagine everyone you love, the things you cherish and all of your life experiences gone, that's what making different decisions would potentially mean.

I love "what if" stories. You get to have a different girlfriend in every alternate scenario.

Here's my second what if story. I was pretty disillusioned with flying when I was about 23 or 24. Was working at a 135 Grand Canyon tour outfit flying 207's making next to nothing, boss was a jerk, and you needed multi time to move on. Had always thought ATC would be a cool career and had taken the test a few times. I finally scored high enough on the test and that combined with points from my flying time and degree got me in the door. I got hired as a controller trainee and went through the screening program in OKC. It was really harder than it needed to be and only 4 in my class of 20 passed. Felt bad for some of the guys that had families and quit good jobs only to fail in a really stupid way to screen people for the job. Anyhow, I got a 67 and you needed a 70 to pass. I did well enough to get offered a job as an Air Traffic Assistant with a chance to go thru the academy again in a year.

Off to LAX I go. I was supposed be at the TRACON but the address on the order took me to the tower. After some discussions with the tower supe, he offered me a job doing clearance delivery right there on the spot. I declined since I didn't want to get in trouble and was able to find the TRACON but how cool would it have been to work at LA tower. I've always wished I had said yes to the tower supe. I ended up working at the TRACON for about eight months. It was a lot of fun and what a bunch of partiers but they all knew I was a pilot and encouraged me to get back into flying. Everyone knows pilots make bank and just sit in the plane and watch the world go by. I did miss flying and became a self employed Cessna 150 fish spotter. The rest is history.

I always say washing out of the academy was the best thing that ever happened to me.

 

[Hiboglossi]

I love flying but not enough to endure hardship for it. And despite many people seeing that as weakness and lack of commitment, I think it's a good thing. If more people were willing to not accept this BS they'd think twice before further devaluing this profession.

Exactly. I remember when a bunch of people on here took it as a personal insult that someone quit the airlines to go back to instructing a few years ago:

An interesting take on "quitting"

Although it kind of strikes me as funny, as hiring at mainline has progressed to the point where someone only has to "pay dues" at the regional level for a few years. He talks about it being easy to "just go back"- but bridges are hard to cross once they're burned. In any case, food for thought...

jetcareers.com

You'd think they'd be happy about pilots like him voting with their feet resulting in less competition for pilot jobs...

 

[Boris Badenov]

In the spirit of some of the previous offerings, what if that 520 had quit while I was doing an approach to mins back in the check-hauling days. What if I had developed a career-ending medical condition before I had insurance for such a circumstance? What if I'd gotten hit by a bus just walking along in some damned place or another?

I'm pretty happy to be on the right side of the dirt with a job that doesn't seem overly-likely to go away and pays me enough to live in the ways I like. *shrug*

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

these kind of threads make me very curious how things are going to go during the next industry hiccup for those that made it to career destinations in a blink

I’d it was a true downturn mass layoff situation, I think you’d see more suicides than post 9/11 and 2008-2009 GFC.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

For guys like @luke3 saying if it gets bad, you’re out. What are you going to go do? Legacy CA making 300k-650k+ so what can you do that even remotely comes close to replacing that income?


Now I love my job. Absolutely do. I’m a nerd about it. After every flight, on the 737 I flick the fuel switch to used, and compare that to the flight plan to see how we did. Like I said, I’m a nerd in love with my job.


But I gotta be honest. Even if I hated my job, how can I quit? There is NOTHING else that would come close to what I make here.

 

[Hiboglossi]

For guys like @luke3 saying if it gets bad, you’re out. What are you going to go do? Legacy CA making 300k-650k+ so what can you do that even remotely comes close to replacing that income?


Now I love my job. Absolutely do. I’m a nerd about it. After every flight, on the 737 I flick the fuel switch to used, and compare that to the flight plan to see how we did. Like I said, I’m a nerd in love with my job.


But I gotta be honest. Even if I hated my job, how can I quit? There is NOTHING else that would come close to what I make here.

If memory serves you were an engineer before you went into flying. Would you be able to go back to engineering if need be? Though I assume without any recent experience you wouldn't be able to make nearly as much as you do now.

I agree with your point. I've noticed that, when complaining about the profession, pilots often compare themselves to doctors, lawyers or engineers and imagine they'd be one of those things if not a pilot, but that seems unlikely.

Honestly a lot of people would probably say I should leave aviation, since, although I did finally escape the regionals, I have an accident and a lot of training failures on my record. Besides inertia, the main reason I haven't is that I have never had a good paying job outside of aviation and realistically am not qualified for one, so I probably wouldn't be able to make as much as I do as a pilot even with these issues.

 

[CFIT99]

For guys like @luke3 saying if it gets bad, you’re out. What are you going to go do? Legacy CA making 300k-650k+ so what can you do that even remotely comes close to replacing that income?


Now I love my job. Absolutely do. I’m a nerd about it. After every flight, on the 737 I flick the fuel switch to used, and compare that to the flight plan to see how we did. Like I said, I’m a nerd in love with my job.


But I gotta be honest. Even if I hated my job, how can I quit? There is NOTHING else that would come close to what I make here.

grudging I agree...there are almost zero jobs that you can make the money we do with that kind of time off...(business owners are the exception)

My SiL is a lawyer and makes 300K+ but works 90+ hours a week. The ratio of what I work and get paid VS what she works and gets paid...is VASTLY in my favor (and that's as a 3rd year NB FO, not inluding when I was a NB CA or when I'll be a NB/WB CA)

The question is, if you were paid "close" to what you are now, would you switch careers?

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

If memory serves you were an engineer before you went into flying. Would you be able to go back to engineering if need be? Though I assume without any recent experience you wouldn't be able to make nearly as much as you do now.

I agree with your point. I've noticed that, when complaining about the profession, pilots often compare themselves to doctors, lawyers or engineers and imagine they'd be one of those things if not a pilot, but that seems unlikely.

Honestly a lot of people would probably say I should leave aviation, since, although I did finally escape the regionals, I have an accident and a lot of training failures on my record. Besides inertia, the main reason I haven't is that I have never had a good paying job outside of aviation and realistically am not qualified for one, so I probably wouldn't be able to make as much as I do as a pilot even with these issues.

I could. But I’m a max 12 yr guy and at these rates, it’s over 450k.

As a 22 yr old with a BSE degree, I started at 55k. This day and age with crazy inflation and supply of jobs, maybe 80-100k? Get a masters and maybe 120-140k?

Nothing comes close. My brother is a family practice doctor and I make more, and that’s considering his 12 yr schooling post high school.


Call me a pessimist, but I’m a believer in make hay while the sun shines. I still can’t believe this will last. Wages - across everything - along with costs of mostly everything - all seem too high.

 

[luke3]

For guys like @luke3 saying if it gets bad, you’re out. What are you going to go do? Legacy CA making 300k-650k+ so what can you do that even remotely comes close to replacing that income?

I absolutely love my job too. It's all I ever wanted to do, and the fulfillment of a lifetime obsession of mine that continues to this day. My backup career that became my primary career during the lost decade is engineering. My industry experience is a bit stale but I'm confident I could figure it out.

As a legacy CA there's nothing that can make it bad. I chose to take an early upgrade putting me close to the plug on my equipment in my base. Forecasting years of reserve outside of lucking out on the very slow months of low season and virtually no schedule control. I'm happy to deal with all of that for the money and satisfaction that being a Captain brings to me. It also puts me one industry sneeze away from downgrade. Legacy FO rates are currently still more than I could make in an engineering career with my age and longevity, so I'm still OK with that, especially with our current contract.

Now add in bankruptcies, large pay cuts, and gutting of work rules that we saw in the past and it starts getting to the point where financially it's close to even with a big QOL disadvantage. Or get furloughed and end up commuting to reserve for year 1 pay at another carrier. At that point I'd rather sleep in my own bed every night and go back to engineering. I'm hoping that I'm at the stage of my career where I'm safe from the worst of worse outcomes, and that we as an industry won't repeat the mistakes of the past. I wouldn't wish that on anybody. But I have established a point beyond which I'm just going to cut my losses and get out. Beats going back to flying 135. Hopefully that point never comes.

 

[Hiboglossi]

Call me a pessimist, but I’m a believer in make hay while the sun shines. I still can’t believe this will last. Wages - across everything - along with costs of mostly everything - all seem too high.

I've often thought it seems a little too good to be true how well the industry recovered after the Pandemic...

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

I absolutely love my job too. It's all I ever wanted to do, and the fulfillment of a lifetime obsession of mine that continues to this day. My backup career that became my primary career during the lost decade is engineering. My industry experience is a bit stale but I'm confident I could figure it out.

As a legacy CA there's nothing that can make it bad. I chose to take an early upgrade putting me close to the plug on my equipment in my base. Forecasting years of reserve outside of lucking out on the very slow months of low season and virtually no schedule control. I'm happy to deal with all of that for the money and satisfaction that being a Captain brings to me. It also puts me one industry sneeze away from downgrade. Legacy FO rates are currently still more than I could make in an engineering career with my age and longevity, so I'm still OK with that, especially with our current contract.

Now add in bankruptcies, large pay cuts, and gutting of work rules that we saw in the past and it starts getting to the point where financially it's close to even with a big QOL disadvantage. Or get furloughed and end up commuting to reserve for year 1 pay at another carrier. At that point I'd rather sleep in my own bed every night and go back to engineering. I'm hoping that I'm at the stage of my career where I'm safe from the worst of worse outcomes, and that we as an industry won't repeat the mistakes of the past. I wouldn't wish that on anybody. But I have established a point beyond which I'm just going to cut my losses and get out. Beats going back to flying 135. Hopefully that point never comes.

I hope it works out. I think you are optimist if as a 2 yr guy you assume your worse case is a downgrade. I would think streets. I still remember when March 2020, the first “oh chit” moment was an reticle that Delta was parking 70% of their fleet. I did the quick math that if someone as big was gonna park 70% of their planes, then we were screwed. Even as I started 9th yr CA, I remember telling my wife that this Covid thing might mean I go from CA to furlough, and we’d have to leave California since we were only here for my job.

 

[ZapBrannigan]

Heck, before 9/11 I had 1,149 pilots junior to me - 20%

They furloughed me in March of 02' and kept going until pretty much all of the FOs had been furloughed. We were out for almost a decade (which is why so many just moved on)

 

[Jordan793]

I hope it works out. I think you are optimist if as a 2 yr guy you assume your worse case is a downgrade. I would think streets. I still remember when March 2020, the first “oh chit” moment was an reticle that Delta was parking 70% of their fleet. I did the quick math that if someone as big was gonna park 70% of their planes, then we were screwed. Even as I started 9th yr CA, I remember telling my wife that this Covid thing might mean I go from CA to furlough, and we’d have to leave California since we were only here for my job.

At the rate that all the legacies have hired the past few years I wouldn’t be surprised if a 2-3 year guy is at at least 70% company wide which *should* be furlough safe

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

At the rate that all the legacies have hired the past few years I wouldn’t be surprised if a 2-3 year guy is at at least 70% company wide which *should* be furlough safe

I just can’t take it for granted. It would depend on what the “event” is and what the government appetite is for a bailout.

 

[JordanD]

It’s weird. What if I didn’t spend7 years putting around at @CK ’s outfit and was a regional captain? What if I had my degree and got hired at my dream job earlier? So many different scenarios, but had I even been hired a class before I was, I wouldn’t be putting around the world in a Bus not as cool as @derg ’s I guess it’s pure luck, timing and when we all start in this whirlwind of a career.

I occasionally chuckle about about how our careers have gone since we've known each other. I remember putting around in a clapped out 172 taking photos while you were logging turbine PIC in a Hawker, then being senior to you at my last shop, then being junior to you at the current shop. Just kind of reinforced how pointless the "what if" game is and there's no real point stressing about it when the reality is a lot of us are just fortunate to have everything fall into place after all the hard work.

Nah, the 'what if' game is bad. Imagine everyone you love, the things you cherish and all of your life experiences gone, that's what making different decisions would potentially mean.

I think about this a lot. I passed up a few opportunities and got my CFI to try to stay close to home to try to keep a bad relationship alive and regretted it for a long time. Which at most would have gotten me to the airlines maybe a year sooner, at absolute maximum. Which could have meant not having to chase the first base I could hold a line in, moving there, and eventually meeting my wife. So many little career moves could have canceled all of that out.
It's easy to look back at how I lived building time and not think "wow, that sucked and I'd never do that again", but my only real regret is not enjoying some of the steps a little bit more as they were happening.

 

[SteveC]

…but my only real regret is not enjoying some of the steps a little bit more as they were happening.

One of my dad’s many sayings is “too soon old, too late wise”.

Enjoy and/or appreciate every day whether good, bad or indifferent.

 

[///AMG]

At the rate that all the legacies have hired the past few years I wouldn’t be surprised if a 2-3 year guy is at at least 70% company wide which *should* be furlough safe

While this is probably true, it also assumes that present pilot staffing at the legacies is actually sustainable, long-term. Following an industry downturn, do all those thousands of pilot jobs made at each one, in the last 5 years or so (and especially in the last couple), ever come back? Or do companies come to terms with a new economic reality where 10k pilots (or whatever) is the roadmap towards profitability?

 

[ClearedForOption]

Counterfactuals is always a fun game to play...

I had CJO's/Class Dates at Omni, AzulNorte, and Cathay Pacific at the same time... what if I had gone to CX? Well... I know the answer to that one, but did I miss out on crazy adventures all over the world?

When I was furloughed from Mesa, I ended up using my retraining $ to get a CE-500 type, vs the 737 which was $1000 more at the time and a few weeks in Dallas vs driving to VNY. Would that have helped me get on at SWA vs. Azul? Would Azul even looked at me with the 73 on my cert?

5 min after I passed my upgrade LOE a old friend reminded me that her mom had Fred Smith on speed dial because she was a senior sales something at Purple? Did I want her to make the call?

What if I hadn't completely torpedoed my Compass interview in '10? By being way to frickin excited about getting off furlough and the flow?

The list goes on and on...

I've had a great career, and maybe it wasn't exactly what I had hoped, I've still had a great ride so far. And sitting TOS, driving to work, and bidding reserve are pretty great.

(Can't change the past or the TVA will be along shortly to incinerate your timeline.)

 

[Screaming_Emu]

I could. But I’m a max 12 yr guy and at these rates, it’s over 450k.

As a 22 yr old with a BSE degree, I started at 55k. This day and age with crazy inflation and supply of jobs, maybe 80-100k? Get a masters and maybe 120-140k?

Nothing comes close. My brother is a family practice doctor and I make more, and that’s considering his 12 yr schooling post high school.


Call me a pessimist, but I’m a believer in make hay while the sun shines. I still can’t believe this will last. Wages - across everything - along with costs of mostly everything - all seem too high.

Trust us. It’s not hard to call you a pessimist. You seem absolutely miserable.