"We need 1,600 pilots."

[Richman]

FWIW, in my experience, there is significant, and I do mean significant, "news lag" from management to the line pilot.

By the time something becomes "commonly known", or even just "plain news", it's hopelessly out of date and/or corrupted well beyond the "telephone game" ARINC standards.

In 2005, I watched an FO argue with a senior Captain for about 10 minutes on the crew bus that NWA had pilots on furlough (like 800). The Captain hadn't heard about it from any of 'his' usual sources, so naturally the FO was making it up.

It's also in the delivery. Lies are told with a straight face. The truth is told with a dismissive giggle.

Richman

 

[RamRise]

Where are you coming up with those numbers? Because per the FAA at https://www.faa.gov/data_research/a...statistics/media/2015-civil-airmen-stats.xlsx they have only given out about 12K ATPs over the last 10 years and most of those are because of the ATP rule.

Yes but how became inactive during that period ? I guess when an ATP holder passes away or ceases to renew a medical. Say we lost 2k a year, the. Then the net gain would still be 3k or so a year. Nothing like 10-20k figures above. I find those hard to believe.

 

[thehobbit]

Where are you coming up with those numbers? Because per the FAA at https://www.faa.gov/data_research/a...statistics/media/2015-civil-airmen-stats.xlsx they have only given out about 12K ATPs over the last 10 years and most of those are because of the ATP rule.

Well last year they issued 6000+ new atps so its much more than that.

 

[Gonzo]

Well last year they issued 6000+ new atps so its much more than that.

But look at Table 1, the numbers in Table 1 are in line with the 590K in total pilots in the US.

 

[thehobbit]

But look at Table 1, the numbers in Table 1 are in line with the 590K in total pilots in the US.

Yes in that table it shows about a 13,000 increase in pilots over the last eleven years, but that is only an estimate of total pilots not what was actually issued over the same time frame. The faa need to keep better records of what is actually out there. They need to break it down to include who is flying stateside vs overseas.

 

[Screaming_Emu]

FWIW, in my experience, there is significant, and I do mean significant, "news lag" from management to the line pilot.

By the time something becomes "commonly known", or even just "plain news", it's hopelessly out of date and/or corrupted well beyond the "telephone game" ARINC standards.

In 2005, I watched an FO argue with a senior Captain for about 10 minutes on the crew bus that NWA had pilots on furlough (like 800). The Captain hadn't heard about it from any of 'his' usual sources, so naturally the FO was making it up.

It's also in the delivery. Lies are told with a straight face. The truth is told with a dismissive giggle.

Richman

At ASA I was flying with a senior captain who was trying to argue with me that we had never furloughed while we currently had people out on the street. It must be awesome to be that out of the loop.

 

[Fixtur]

1. Those are total certs issued, so a few going to foreign students. Perhaps quite a few.
2. ATP glut could be due to pilots taking advantage of the 2014 rule. I have talked to a few DPEs who were very busy this last year doing ATP rides for guys who wanted to get in under the wire. Doesn't mean they're all going to the airlines.

 

[Gonzo]

Yes in that table it shows about a 13,000 increase in pilots over the last eleven years, but that is only an estimate of total pilots not what was actually issued over the same time frame. The faa need to keep better records of what is actually out there. They need to break it down to include who is flying stateside vs overseas.

Yea I think the FAA could also have better charts, because if you go by table 17 they have issued 55,767 new ATPs over the last 10 years and the math just doesn't work, add in age 65 and some how between table 1 and table 17, 42,972 ATPs have not renewed their medicals.

 

[milleR]

Well... United is in luck. There has been between 10,000 and 20,000 new ATP certificates issued every year since 2006. Data here:

View attachment 37231



I firmly believe there isn't a pilot shortage and there is more than enough pilots in the airline system for the majors to not have a labor supply issue.

To be fair, there's intense competition at the lower-wage spectrum of airline work. To me, that's a normal functioning market and not a "shortage."

I must be dense because I'm having a hard time figuring out how you can issue almost 120,000 private pilot certs over those 10 years but only issue roughly 11,000 student pilot certificates. If every other cert is effectively an upgrade of an existing one, then student pilot certificates issued is the only true indicator of people entering the system, no? Furthermore, if you've got people going through a program like ATP, then you have one individual potentially going from student pilot to commercial in less than a year, 4 of the certificates listed on that chart.

 

[Cptnchia]

In 2005, I watched an FO argue with a senior Captain for about 10 minutes on the crew bus that NWA had pilots on furlough (like 800). The Captain hadn't heard about it from any of 'his' usual sources, so naturally the FO was making it up.
Richman

At ASA I was flying with a senior captain who was trying to argue with me that we had never furloughed while we currently had people out on the street. It must be awesome to be that out of the loop.

Happens everywhere. When I got furloughed from SJI, we were issued "furlough IDs" in lieu of regular ones. They looked just like a regular one but had a light blue background and said "FURLOUGHED" on it. We had Jumpseat rights per the contract, although FAA and TSA said no.

While standing in the jetway one day while non revving, I was talking with the FO. He was an FM2 guy while I was an FM1 guy. The captain came out and asked what we were talking about. When we said about being furloughed, he asked what airline. When we told him SJI, he claimed there were no pilots furloughed from there. He was confused, because the FM2 guys had been recalled, but the FM1 guys were still out.

Went so far as to call me a liar to my face when we tried to explain it to him and claimed I faked the ID when I showed it to him. Said he was going to call the FBI and report me for impersonating an airline pilot. When I told him to check his facts with the union, he said he only listened to what the CPO put out.

I just walked away. You can't fix stupid.

 

[hook_dupin]

Where are you coming up with those numbers? Because per the FAA at https://www.faa.gov/data_research/a...statistics/media/2015-civil-airmen-stats.xlsx they have only given out about 12K ATPs over the last 10 years and most of those are because of the ATP rule.

Table 18 on the link you provided.

What's the source? How is it possible that, on average in the last 10 years, more pilots have received the ATP cert than the private cert? Was there some massive pool of private pilots from pre-2006 who decided to get ATPs in record numbers over the past 10 years? I've poked thorough the airman database and for any given first and last name the majority are private pilots. I'm not sure how those add up given that an ATP has to first earn a private pilot certificate.

Maybe the "certificates issued" column counts each type added to an ATP's cert separately.

I must be dense because I'm having a hard time figuring out how you can issue almost 120,000 private pilot certs over those 10 years but only issue roughly 11,000 student pilot certificates. If every other cert is effectively an upgrade of an existing one, then student pilot certificates issued is the only true indicator of people entering the system, no? Furthermore, if you've got people going through a program like ATP, then you have one individual potentially going from student pilot to commercial in less than a year, 4 of the certificates listed on that chart.

I'll buy these arguments. It was late last night and I didn't see that. Here's the new certificate data vice additional ratings:

One of the most detailed works on the "Pilot Shortage" is a PhD thesis by an Air Force Student at the RAND graduate school. Here's the author's plot of airline hiring and ATP production:

The author predicts major airline hiring in the 4K-5K per year range for 2014 and beyond:

I somewhat disagree with the 4K-5K per year demand as it does not account for the economic cycles that clearly exist in this business. This is a different argument altogether, but I believe we are due for a recession in 2018-2020.

The author then forecasts ATP production and demand out to 2028:

In the analysis, the author believes there is enough ATP production to meet demand until 2028.


My initial grab at the data may have been wrong, but I still don't buy the "pilot shortage." Look guys, this is a business with 2%-3% domestic growth.

The GAO did a study in 2014, and pretty much came up with the same conclusion.

One last data point - a shot of the line at the most recent Delta jobs fair:

Here's Hook's prediction of the future: The Majors do not and will not face a pilot shortage. Sure, they'll have to run full classes to keep up with the retirement pace. At the same time, the regionals will continue to face increased competition to bring in pilots -they'll have to get very creative with how they recruit and retain people. I'm concerned with what will happen at the bottom end of the market - small cities connecting to large hubs. I believe there will be further contraction of regional service. I am not at all concerned with the Majors ability to hire folks. None of the studies I've seen account for any type of recession, and I think the next one is around the corner.

 

[FloridaLarry]

...It's also in the delivery. Lies are told with a straight face. The truth is told with a dismissive giggle.

Finally, someone has helped me understand the Trumpster. And Internet 'news' and 'wisdom' - if you can't see their mouths moving,...

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

FWIW, in my experience, there is significant, and I do mean significant, "news lag" from management to the line pilot.

By the time something becomes "commonly known", or even just "plain news", it's hopelessly out of date and/or corrupted well beyond the "telephone game" ARINC standards.

In 2005, I watched an FO argue with a senior Captain for about 10 minutes on the crew bus that NWA had pilots on furlough (like 800). The Captain hadn't heard about it from any of 'his' usual sources, so naturally the FO was making it up.

It's also in the delivery. Lies are told with a straight face. The truth is told with a dismissive giggle.

Richman

At ASA I was flying with a senior captain who was trying to argue with me that we had never furloughed while we currently had people out on the street. It must be awesome to be that out of the loop.

I know you guys are referring to a while ago, but I honestly think today, most people are wired to only hearing what they want to believe. They either associate with those people with similar beliefs, or on social media with similar beliefs and the algorithms take over and reinforce their ideas. Somewhere out there is the truth, but I'm not so sure society cares much for that anymore. Just whatever conforms to what we want to believe - or perceive to be true.

 

[Cruise]

Republic is buying Usairways.

What is this USAirways of which you speak?

 

[Cruise]

I must be dense because I'm having a hard time figuring out how you can issue almost 120,000 private pilot certs over those 10 years but only issue roughly 11,000 student pilot certificates. If every other cert is effectively an upgrade of an existing one, then student pilot certificates issued is the only true indicator of people entering the system, no? Furthermore, if you've got people going through a program like ATP, then you have one individual potentially going from student pilot to commercial in less than a year, 4 of the certificates listed on that chart.

It's government math...we wouldn't understand.

 

[mshunter]

One of the last guys I flew with is convinced that with UPS's order for 747-8s, they're going to buy us. "Well, we are the only US operator of those. We have a lot of experience."Because a powerpoint slide and a few hours in front of a touchscreen FTD is beyond their expertise.

I really don't understand why pilots think we're all so smart. The job we do isn't that difficult and we're given a WHOLE bunch of training to learn how to do it. But once we master it we somehow think we're geniuses on every subject.

Wait.....you mean......we aren't?

 

[bLizZuE]

1,599

 

[Deleted member 27505]

Well... United is in luck. There has been between 10,000 and 20,000 new ATP certificates issued every year since 2006. Data here:

View attachment 37231



I firmly believe there isn't a pilot shortage and there is more than enough pilots in the airline system for the majors to not have a labor supply issue.

To be fair, there's intense competition at the lower-wage spectrum of airline work. To me, that's a normal functioning market and not a "shortage."

When you look at the number of private certs granted vs commercial vs ATP, that appears to be a really weird distribution at the ATP level. Where are all the applicants coming from? It's even weirder when you look at the number of CFI tickets handed out.

 

[JustinS]

Once the regionals legitimately lose pilots faster than they can hire new ones.... Then you know there will be a pilot shortage. Until then, we're just seeing movement. Massive retirements which are only beginning is causing lots of hiring both at the majors and the regionals. Once the regionals begin to dry up, then we'll know there is a pilot shortage. In my mind that's the most obvious sign. We can throw out data all day long and make predictions, but the proof is in what is happening in the moment.

However, just because there isn't a pilot shortage (yet), doesn't mean there isn't a ton of hiring happening at every single airline.

 

[derg]

One of the last guys I flew with is convinced that with UPS's order for 747-8s, they're going to buy us. "Well, we are the only US operator of those. We have a lot of experience."Because a powerpoint slide and a few hours in front of a touchscreen FTD is beyond their expertise.

I really don't understand why pilots think we're all so smart. The job we do isn't that difficult and we're given a WHOLE bunch of training to learn how to do it. But once we master it we somehow think we're geniuses on every subject.

I could probably retire today if I simply shorted Airline Pilot stock recommendations.