"We need 1,600 pilots."

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Sounds like a sure thing
 
I also heard from a United first officer while deadheading that UAL will buy SkyWest. I try not to believe everything that I hear.
 
I also heard from a United first officer while deadheading that UAL will buy SkyWest. I try not to believe everything that I hear.

One of the last guys I flew with is convinced that with UPS's order for 747-8s, they're going to buy us. "Well, we are the only US operator of those. We have a lot of experience."Because a powerpoint slide and a few hours in front of a touchscreen FTD is beyond their expertise.

I really don't understand why pilots think we're all so smart. The job we do isn't that difficult and we're given a WHOLE bunch of training to learn how to do it. But once we master it we somehow think we're geniuses on every subject.
 
One of the last guys I flew with is convinced that with UPS's order for 747-8s, they're going to buy us. "Well, we are the only US operator of those. We have a lot of experience."Because a powerpoint slide and a few hours in front of a touchscreen FTD is beyond their expertise.

I really don't understand why pilots think we're all so smart. The job we do isn't that difficult and we're given a WHOLE bunch of training to learn how to do it. But once we master it we somehow think we're geniuses on every subject.

from what i've learned in pilot lounges i'm pretty sure an atp is at least equivalent to an PHd in political science.
 
Well... United is in luck. There has been between 10,000 and 20,000 new ATP certificates issued every year since 2006. Data here:

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I firmly believe there isn't a pilot shortage and there is more than enough pilots in the airline system for the majors to not have a labor supply issue.

To be fair, there's intense competition at the lower-wage spectrum of airline work. To me, that's a normal functioning market and not a "shortage."
 
Well... United is in luck. There has been between 10,000 and 20,000 new ATP certificates issued every year since 2006. Data here:

View attachment 37231



I firmly believe there isn't a pilot shortage and there is more than enough pilots in the airline system for the majors to not have a labor supply issue.

To be fair, there's intense competition at the lower-wage spectrum of airline work. To me, that's a normal functioning market and not a "shortage."

Damn that is a lot of ATPs
 
Well... United is in luck. There has been between 10,000 and 20,000 new ATP certificates issued every year since 2006. Data here:

View attachment 37231



I firmly believe there isn't a pilot shortage and there is more than enough pilots in the airline system for the majors to not have a labor supply issue.

To be fair, there's intense competition at the lower-wage spectrum of airline work. To me, that's a normal functioning market and not a "shortage."

There's hardly a growth in any Private Pilot Certificates, and a decrease in Commercial Certificates, and yet almost double the amount of ATPs as Commercial Pilots being issued. It's just been the previous pool of Commercial Pilot's soaking up the opportunity to get their ATP. It will all catch up.
 
There's hardly a growth in any Private Pilot Certificates, and a decrease in Commercial Certificates, and yet almost double the amount of ATPs as Commercial Pilots being issued. It's just been the previous pool of Commercial Pilot's soaking up the opportunity to get their ATP. It will all catch up.

That is still 8,000 plus commercial pilots a year. How long does it take a wet commercial pilot to reach atp mins? Three years at most working full time...
 
Well... United is in luck. There has been between 10,000 and 20,000 new ATP certificates issued every year since 2006. Data here:

View attachment 37231



I firmly believe there isn't a pilot shortage and there is more than enough pilots in the airline system for the majors to not have a labor supply issue.

To be fair, there's intense competition at the lower-wage spectrum of airline work. To me, that's a normal functioning market and not a "shortage."
What's the source? How is it possible that, on average in the last 10 years, more pilots have received the ATP cert than the private cert? Was there some massive pool of private pilots from pre-2006 who decided to get ATPs in record numbers over the past 10 years? I've poked thorough the airman database and for any given first and last name the majority are private pilots. I'm not sure how those add up given that an ATP has to first earn a private pilot certificate.

Maybe the "certificates issued" column counts each type added to an ATP's cert separately.
 
Well... United is in luck. There has been between 10,000 and 20,000 new ATP certificates issued every year since 2006. Data here:

View attachment 37231



I firmly believe there isn't a pilot shortage and there is more than enough pilots in the airline system for the majors to not have a labor supply issue.

To be fair, there's intense competition at the lower-wage spectrum of airline work. To me, that's a normal functioning market and not a "shortage."
Where are you coming up with those numbers? Because per the FAA at https://www.faa.gov/data_research/a...statistics/media/2015-civil-airmen-stats.xlsx they have only given out about 12K ATPs over the last 10 years and most of those are because of the ATP rule.
 
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