United Exits Ch. 11

TrinidadGT20 said:
United absolutely will not obtain $5B or even $1B in profit this quarter. Why don't you read this first and then see if you still want to make that bet.


http://www.usatoday.com/travel/columnist/brancatelli/2006-01-30-brancatelli_x.htm
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I don't have to read what some pundit for Pie Chart Today! has to say about it. 1Q '06 will show UAUA posting a large profit. If you're so confident, $100, and since you don't even think they'll get to $1B, let's make that the over/under...
 
Chris_Ford said:
I don't have to read what some pundit for Pie Chart Today! has to say about it. 1Q '06 will show UAUA posting a large profit. If you're so confident, $100, and since you don't even think they'll get to $1B, let's make that the over/under...
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6 months ...
 
Chris_Ford said:
Just like USAir was going to be Ch 7 in '02, eh?
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That's the scary part. I fly all US Air trips, and I've only had 2 flights that were full. And both were due to another flight canceling. Most flights have 10-25 people on them (20-50% LF's). I'm actually scared about where they will be in one to two years - and US Air is the only codeshare we have :(...

United DEFINATELY knows how to fill a/c. They also got the jump on the 170's. I believe they still have a good route structure. I think they'll pull through.

As a side note, US Air and United are still code sharing...:bandit: ...things that make you go HMMMMMM.

~wheelsup
 
frog_flyer said:
1billion in q1 06

lies!
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bagdad_bob_large.gif


For some reason, this quote reminded me of our pal, The Iraqi Information Minister.
 
Chris_Ford said:
I don't have to read what some pundit for Pie Chart Today! has to say about it. 1Q '06 will show UAUA posting a large profit. If you're so confident, $100, and since you don't even think they'll get to $1B, let's make that the over/under...
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Look, I'm routing for United as much as the next guy, but the reality is they are not going to make anywhere near $1B in NET profit this quarter, let alone more than $1B.
 
flying_ME said:
True, but earlier you said:


Me thinks you are on the losing end of this bet :)
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No, I'm saying that they'll probably have an operating loss, but a net profit over $1B. Will someone please just take the bet so I can make my $100? :)

Think about this guys, why would I be this adament about something unless I was 100% sure.
 
Chris_Ford said:
No, I'm saying that they'll probably have an operating loss, but a net profit over $1B. Will someone please just take the bet so I can make my $100? :)

Think about this guys, why would I be this adament about something unless I was 100% sure.
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If United posts a net profit of $1B, it will not be as a result of their operations. United's Operating Income (Gross Profit minus Operating Expenses--Operating Income is the pre-tax, pre-interest profit from the company's "operations") at best may break even and perhaps have a slight profit but it won't be anywhere near $1B.

United's Earnings (aka "Net income"--after-tax profit before paying dividends; What's left over after paying dividends is called "earnings available to common shareholders"; this is the number used to calculate earnings per share and the P/E ratio.) may top $1B but it definitely won't be as a result of operations. They may post a net profit of a $1B by selling say, all of their 747's, but in the end Wall St. is still going to pummel their stock because of their poor operating income.

It's because of United's excessively quick stock vesting schedule that leads many to believe that UAL mgmt will take actions that are necessary for short-term profit at the expense of long term strategic planning and growth. As the article mentions, United has no plans to increase capacity (i.e. grow) until 2010 the earliest.

Chris, if you know something the rest of us don't then spill it. But I maintain that United will not post anywhere near $1B in earnings from their operations.
 
Chris_Ford said:
Will someone please just take the bet so I can make my $100?
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As long as their stock keeps dumping today I'll be happy. So far I've made $80 in the last 20 minutes...

EDIT: Wait, $90.

EDIT2: $145. Sweet - I'm out.
 
Yeah. Not for long though, I don't have nerves of steel. I'll make a quick $$, as I'm just learning how to do this stuff (long layovers - I need something to do).
 
TrinidadGT20 said:
Chris, if you know something the rest of us don't then spill it. But I maintain that United will not post anywhere near $1B in earnings from their operations.
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Good, now we've got someone who understand finance 101. Net profit (or loss) is not the same as earnings from operations!
 
tonyw said:
Good, now we've got someone who understand finance 101. Net profit (or loss) is not the same as earnings from operations!
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Exactly my point. Trinidad, find where in this thread I mentioned that they'll have OPERATIONAL profit? Of course, I never said that. They're probably not going to turn any operational profit....
 
Chris_Ford said:
Exactly my point. Trinidad, find where in this thread I mentioned that they'll have OPERATIONAL profit? Of course, I never said that. They're probably not going to turn any operational profit....
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6 months ...
 
Chris_Ford said:
Exactly my point. Trinidad, find where in this thread I mentioned that they'll have OPERATIONAL profit? Of course, I never said that. They're probably not going to turn any operational profit....
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I never meant to imply that you said the profit would be from operations. What I was trying to demonstrate was that there is no way in heck United will pull a $1B profit from operations. The only way United could post a profit like that is from income generated from somewhere other than operations, such as investments.

My point is... Where will United get this magic $1B in earnings you're predicting if it's not from operations? You seem to be implying you know the answer to this question, hence my challenge to spill it.
 
United, or any other airline who is not making money will not do so until it's done raping it's employees. Let's just be honest.
 
Maximillian_Jenius said:
Gotta love the repeat offenders...:)

:sarcasm:
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See that's the thing ... they aren't repeating. Every airline out there over the past five years has had at least two CEOs (or major changes at the top of managment, including SWA).

So it's more of a gangbang ... :eek:
 
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