JaceTheAce'sDad
Flying the Duchess.
I just wondered what you thought of them.
the volume of air travel worldwide is expected to double
- Thread starter JaceTheAce'sDad
- Start date
I just wondered what you thought of them.
I would tend to guess it is more to China opening its airs to general aviation aircraft in 2010. For which large sums of money have already been invested to begin teaching, part of which includes 600 Liberty XL2 aircraft being purchased to arrive early 2010.
They didn't say commercial airline traffic, but air traffic alone. As China's population is far greater than ours (280 million versus 1.3 billion in 2000) I would assume it is likely that it will quickly double with the introduction to GA in China. Just my 02.
JaceTheAce'sDad
Flying the Duchess.
Kaching...What I'm trying to determine is 1)Is this stat true in today's economy? and 2)If true, where are most of the pilot jobs going to be?
Thanks for your 2 cents.
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
Why? Air travel can increase exponentially without ever adding a single takeoff and landing. All it takes is replacing the replacement jets with mainline airplanes. Air travel volume is measured in passengers, not in departures.
JaceTheAce'sDad
Flying the Duchess.
Ok, where did you find out that they use this "volume measured in passengers" criterion? I'd like to know how they do measure it. And if the number of passengers traveling on aircraft will double are we going to have a combination of full planes where they are now half full, new planes with twice the capacity (that are fully loaded) or a combination. And who's buying these new bigger planes when there have been so many canceled orders this past year? And if these new planes are being bought, who's going to fly in them when business and pleasure travel is down? I'm not saying it will always stay this low, but double the "volume".
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
Read the FAA report that someone posted in this thread. It's all in there.
JaceTheAce'sDad
Flying the Duchess.
Oooops, I thought it might be in there, my bad, your good, thanks. My other questions remain unanswered.
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
It's all assumed on a roughly 3% annual economic growth, which is pretty standard when averaged over that many years. The FAA forecast isn't "double," but it is about a 60% increase, which is probably pretty accurate over that period of time. Some of it will come from increased aircraft size, and some will come from new deliveries. A lot will be for international travel rather than domestic, but there will still likely be a lot of domestic growth as well.
I know things seem bad right now, but they will get better, and predicting a 3% annual growth rate is pretty conservative.
JaceTheAce'sDad
Flying the Duchess.
Thank you. Time will tell. I'm questioning conventional wisdom and predictions based on what happened in the past (and yes I know, are there any other kind). In my humble opinion having had way too much time to delve into current events based on my current employment position, here's what makes me so skeptical. The dollar may very well collapse and take down all other fiat currencies (which is virtually everything else) since all fiat currencies are derivatives of the dollar and all nations use fiat currency. At the bare minimum we are looking at either a deflationary depression or a high to super high inflationary depression (experts are arguing about which it will be). And lastly, the boomer generation is past their peak spending age and will no longer be the force that consumes, cutting off tax receipts for the US government, the engine that has driven the US economy and the export lifeblood of China crippling all in the process. I'm bearish I know, but no wonder. I wish this doubling or plus 60% or whatever was true. And I would hope that us unemployed/underemployed American pilots will find financially satisfying jobs in the near future. I just want everyone to think about these lofty claims carefully and weigh their true options. Good luck to all my flying brothers and sisters.
As others have said, it will increase again domestically as well, though I suspect the doubling is more from what I mentioned earlier. Certainly there will be many jobs open in China from this happening, here is a link: http://www.china.org.cn/china/news/2009-08/26/content_18404609.htm
Here is the link on the 600 aircraft in Beijing: http://www.libertyaircraft.com/airp...raftPurchaseManufactureAgreementinBeijing.php
That being said I have no idea what kind of hiring will be available for non chinese citizens for flight training, but I suspect if you do some digging you can find out. If you were up to learning chinese and moving I would bet you would have many opportunities. But don't give up on the US so fast, I do not have a graph maybe someone can post it so I will try and do this from memory.
In the early 90s air travel was at an all time high, by the mid 90s it fell again only to climb back to its peak and record high just prior to 911. After 911 it tanked again only to start building again from 02-07/08 where sky rocketing fuel prices caused it to once again tank. It has been a roller coaster ride for the last 20 years and I don't foresee any change in that until we break ourselves from the necessity for foreign oil and get the economy stable.
We can only hope that with all these new "greener" acts being will quickly spread to newer more efficient and maybe one day propulsion systems w/o oil as the source for general aviation and jet aircraft. The introduction of FADEC into GA aircraft up to the IOF-540 which I believe stands as the largest right now will drastically cut fuel usage, but it is merely a start. Lean of peak operations are now being pushed for in the current economy for aircraft with individual CHT's and metered injectors: http://www.gami.com/articles/frugalflyer.php
Furthermore, about 4 months ago the FAA started digging into training and pilot hiring for airlines as a major flaw in our system, which I couldn't agree more. We are still young and have a lot of kinks to work out in our system, but it is worth the ride IMO, I have been following for years but only living in it briefly. I can't imagine being anywhere else though.
Well that's just crazy. Everyone knows lean of peak operations leads to running over-square and shock cooling and can drastically increases your chances of scabbing, PFT or getting denied the jumpseat as a GoJet pilot. Not to worry, though! If something goes wrong you can just pull the chute. Wait, are these high wing or low wing aircraft you're running lean of peak in? There's a difference. Of course, I wouldn't want to do this in a multi-engine airplane, which are more dangerous than singles. No wait, scratch that...reverse it. No wait, scratch that...reverse it. Oh it doesn't matter as long as you have your TCAS installed and always fly with two pilots! Hey, can I log that as SIC?
-mini
:yeahthat: :yup: mini is a funny guyWell that's just crazy. Everyone knows lean of peak operations leads to running over-square and shock cooling and can drastically increases your chances of scabbing, PFT or getting denied the jumpseat as a GoJet pilot. Not to worry, though! If something goes wrong you can just pull the chute. Wait, are these high wing or low wing aircraft you're running lean of peak in? There's a difference. Of course, I wouldn't want to do this in a multi-engine airplane, which are more dangerous than singles. No wait, scratch that...reverse it. No wait, scratch that...reverse it. Oh it doesn't matter as long as you have your TCAS installed and always fly with two pilots! Hey, can I log that as SIC?
-mini
:clap:
JaceTheAce'sDad
Flying the Duchess.
Thanks for the nice post. I've sent a resume to Liberty just for grins. I'd move to China for the right job, but I would have a time with speaking Chinese. Still only time will tell what the future holds, my crystal ball broke.
From what I hear much of the military uses Rosetta Stone, I am sure you have heard about it on TV. Pick up a CD give it a shot if you're serious, lol. I thought about it with a local airport that does training with a chinese airline contract, but would rather spend my time with aviation learning not languages.
JaceTheAce'sDad
Flying the Duchess.
Thanks, I've heard of Rosetta and I agree with you.