the volume of air travel worldwide is expected to double

JaceTheAce'sDad

JaceTheAce'sDad

Flying the Duchess.
I just copied the title off of an article in an online business journal. Can anyone tell me from where they get this kind of forecast statistic? They go on to say that air travel historically doubles every 15 years. Maybe it did, but really are they serious? I know we're all a bit jaded about the pilot career choice, but doubling of commercial flight operations, which I think is what "air travel" refers to means exactly that. If an airport has X take offs and landings/day they will have to have 2X in 15 to 20 years. With the baby boom generation entering their cutback, save and survive mode and the demographics of smaller populations in the age segments below them, who's going to pay for all those flights? Sorry if this sounds negative, but it is.
 
moxiepilot said:
i think it has more to do with the asia continental market and growtlh
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Perhaps, but I assume you are referring to China and India which are both emerging markets with large populations, but still in the dark ages. They have a long way to go before significant numbers will be flying within the country (very few airports) or outside the country (still commie (at least China) with a small middle class). That's a good conjecture, but where are these people saying this getting their info? That's what I'd like to know.
 
JaceTheAce'sDad said:
Who's going to pay for all those flights?
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It is a global forecast, and the answer is emerging middle classes in developing nations ("Hot, Flat and Crowded" or "The World is Flat" by Friedman). Many of my friends in the recent college graduate demographic (you don't need to be on a plane with Nixon) go to China and India regularly for business and I doubt it was that way 15 years ago. Who knows how it will be in 15 more years? The engineering challenge the industry must face in the current enviropolitical climate is how to accomplish a doubling of capacity without a doubling of emissions.
 
JaceTheAce'sDad said:
Perhaps, but I assume you are referring to China and India which are both emerging markets with large populations, but still in the dark ages. They have a long way to go before significant numbers will be flying within the country (very few airports) or outside the country (still commie (at least China) with a small middle class). That's a good conjecture, but where are these people saying this getting their info? That's what I'd like to know.
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Woah, dark ages? India and China may not be quite as modernized as the western world, but they're hardly in the "dark ages". The last 10 years alone have brought about huge changes. Their combined middle class rivals the United States', in 15 or 20 years they'll likely be double the entire US population. Besides, China is more Authoritarian capitalist than communist.

The AIC compiles data on the subject as other institutions like the FAA.

http://www.icao.int/ceans/Docs/Ceans_Wp_066_en.pdf
http://www.pata.org/patasite/fileadmin/news_pata/2007/ACI_Forecast_Executive_Summary.pdf
http://www.airports.org
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/2009-2025/media/2009%20Forecast%20Doc.pdf
 
The stock market is going to double (circa 2000)....... never mind,:drool:


The real estate will keep going up and double (circa 2007)....... never mind,:drool:



The passenger traffic will double (circa 2009)....... never mind,:drool:



The price of oil will triple and again drop the world economy flat on it's face. :clap:
 
PGT said:
Chine is spending a ton of money on a high speed rail system, just fyi.
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Thanks, I knew that, but how would a rail system like that affect air traffic? Yes, it would reduce it. I'm drawing attention to all this because we are all looking out for our desires to fly airplanes somewhere. I'm wondering where that will be.
 
Realms09 said:
It is a global forecast, and the answer is emerging middle classes in developing nations ("Hot, Flat and Crowded" or "The World is Flat" by Friedman). Many of my friends in the recent college graduate demographic (you don't need to be on a plane with Nixon) go to China and India regularly for business and I doubt it was that way 15 years ago. Who knows how it will be in 15 more years? The engineering challenge the industry must face in the current enviropolitical climate is how to accomplish a doubling of capacity without a doubling of emissions.
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Ok, now we're talking international flights between the US and China/India increasing due to trade between us and them. Hey pilots, how will you put yourself in those cockpits? This is getting interesting. Have you read either or both of Friedman's books?
 
Clearblue said:
Woah, dark ages? India and China may not be quite as modernized as the western world, but they're hardly in the "dark ages". The last 10 years alone have brought about huge changes. Their combined middle class rivals the United States', in 15 or 20 years they'll likely be double the entire US population. Besides, China is more Authoritarian capitalist than communist.

The AIC compiles data on the subject as other institutions like the FAA.

http://www.icao.int/ceans/Docs/Ceans_Wp_066_en.pdf
http://www.pata.org/patasite/fileadmin/news_pata/2007/ACI_Forecast_Executive_Summary.pdf
http://www.airports.org
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/2009-2025/media/2009 Forecast Doc.pdf
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Thanks for the links. I read the first and skimmed the rest of them. I kind of threw out the one from 2006 since it was before the major economic downturn and even the one done in September 2008 was done just after Lehman Bros. collapsed and before all the major events in October 2008 so it is suspect too. The ACI updates have current information that verifies the growth figures for the Asia/Pacific region. The FAA report was interesting. It's full of revisions to the previous rosy forecasts and slanted toward a reliance on the housing industry not going below a "floor" in values for the economy to improve. Yeah, let's not let the market chose the values. Here's a quote: In last year’s forecast the FAA
predicted for the U.S. commercial aviation industry to carry one billion passengers by 2016. We now
believe the industry will reach this mark in 2021

So they are adjusting the forecast.

My "dark ages" comment is not meant literally although I've read it's not far off but refers to the inland areas of China. Research how many airports they have inland It's about 2 I think. Yes, the coastal cities are very modern. But where did you get the stats on their middle class? I find that hard to believe except to say that ours is dwindling while theirs is increasing. You must see the problem with that. They sell to us. If we can't buy from them, who will they sell to, themselves? Perhaps.
And "Authoritarian Capitalist", I had to look that up. Yes, it's a little different from communism although not by much. It's starting to sound like our economy with the fiat currency, Federal Reserve and political control of industry the past few months. What, did you major in economics? Do you know about Austrian economics, Von Mises, Hayek et al?
 
Minuteman said:
Also, the Boeing Commercial Outlook 2009-2028
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Thanks for this one too. I need more time to study this one. Nice charts, but I hope they back up their predictions with reasons. So many of these reports say, "It's going to be so, so you just better believe what we say because we say it's so". I'd like to see some reasons based on other trends in the economies of the world.

So far, it appears that if we are to get jobs flying airplanes they will come from somewhere other than the US. Looks like it's a good idea to be an economist if you are a pilot.

I'm going to bed. And everyone says, "Thank God".
 
seaav8tor said:
The stock market is going to double (circa 2000)....... never mind,:drool:


The real estate will keep going up and double (circa 2007)....... never mind,:drool:



The passenger traffic will double (circa 2009)....... never mind,:drool:



The price of oil will triple and again drop the world economy flat on it's face. :clap:
Click to expand...

This sounds like me....
 
seaav8tor said:
The stock market is going to double (circa 2000)....... never mind,:drool:


The real estate will keep going up and double (circa 2007)....... never mind,:drool:



The passenger traffic will double (circa 2009)....... never mind,:drool:



The price of oil will triple and again drop the world economy flat on it's face. :clap:
Click to expand...

You can add one more; Pilots wages will continue to decline.:drool:
 
I've always wondered, when "passengers" are counted, are they counting unique passengers or boardings? Just making up figures for an instance, would it be measured 2,000 boardings in a small market (but in reality only 800 passengers) or 2,000 actual passengers out of that market?
 
JaceTheAce'sDad said:
Meanwhile, how's it going in the Ag business? I've read that you folks are doing quite well?
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acres flown down 30% this year, crop prices are generally down. at least fuel prices are also down.

I am expecting a lot of grasshoppers next year. hopefully that will keep us busy.
 
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