the big picture of hiring...where you at ?

N

notawannabee

New Member
I'm looking at several groups of people and trying to get some opinions on "timing" in this industry.

1. pilots employed
2. pilots furloughed
3. CFI 's coming close to the minimums for regional hire
4. newly minted CFI's
5. new student that needs all ratings

In your opinion, where is the place to be ? 1 and 3 may seem like obvious choices, but there are many factors that may come into play.
Where are the cusp of retirements coming ? Do they exist ? and where are they? It seems to be the retirements are concentrated at certain carriers.

My guess would be that a recent new hire regional FO could go to captain in 4-5 years at the regional, or go to a major as a FO ( due to the retirements coming ).

The new student....what if he takes his time and gets to hiring minimums in 5 years....pay may be higher then, and the new hire would have less of a struggle financially. In my opinion, I know this is a long shot, and I wouldn't count on it.

One of the trends I'm hoping for is less people choosing aviation as a profession, and the demand goes up. Add that with mandantory retirements, and there could be alot of opportunity....or is this all hype.

What are the trends on these furloughed pilots ? Are they keeping current, or do they find another ( supplemental ?) occupation?

Are the furloughed pilots competition to the newbies ? Why ?


I know it's alot of questions, and so many variables I didn't mention, but thnaks in advance for all your input.
 
notawannabee said:
1 and 3 may seem like obvious choices, but there are many factors that may come into play.
Where are the cusp of retirements coming ?
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Mostly majors or folks diving out of the profession I presume

Do they exist ? and where are they? It seems to be the retirements are concentrated at certain carriers.
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Folks hit 60 every day. They've been saying "Massive retirements coming soon!" to sell goods and services for the past 20 years. Trust me. Initially I couldn't hold a first class medical but I bought into the hype that the airlines wouldn't care because there'd be such a shortage of pilots because of all of the Vietnam vets retiring, they'd take darned near anyone.

The new student....what if he takes his time and gets to hiring minimums in 5 years....pay may be higher then, and the new hire would have less of a struggle financially.
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Maybe. But there's a "Civil War" of sorts quietly going on behind the scenes and who knows how it'll all turn out.

One of the trends I'm hoping for is less people choosing aviation as a profession, and the demand goes up. Add that with mandantory retirements, and there could be alot of opportunity....or is this all hype.
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If demand and training went down, the benefits may go up, but then you'll have to compete with a lot of former military pilots with heavy time in C-5's that you've got to compete with like what was going on in the 1980's. The major airlines, generally always have an affinity for military pilots.

What are the trends on these furloughed pilots ? Are they keeping current, or do they find another ( supplemental ?) occupation?
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Most of the regional guys that were furloughed that I know went to other regionals. Most of the major furloughed pilots that I know were disenfranchised and looked into other career planes. Personally, if i got furloughed, I'd look into some other career track.

Are the furloughed pilots competition to the newbies ? Why ?
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Sure! Experience. They already know what they're doing. Compared to the trials and tribulations of having to explain to a new hire pilot that he's getting reverse assigned on Xmas and even though he's carving the turkey, he needs to be suited up and in the cockpit in 60 minutes.
 
disenfranchised ? is that binding competetion contract....surely not ! That's just a fancy way of saying " your fired ", right ?

Yea, I know the majors like the military pilots. I'm not one of those. My father in law just retired from ANA..in Japan..I visit him in a couple of weeks. I'll have a good talk with him about the industry. Who knows , maybe he can help. I'd move to Japan to get into the majors early. He now teaches safety seminars CRM for ANA.

For those interested in salary....I believe it was was 350k when he left there.

Doug, Thanks for all the insight !
 
notawannabee said:
disenfranchised ? is that binding competetion contract....surely not ! That's just a fancy way of saying " your fired ", right ?
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There's no 'binding competition contract' in the pilot business. "Disenfranchised" meaning that if I got furloughed, the benefit of me starting over as a new hire at a regional to make $18/flight hour to sit reserve in ORD is silly because I can largely make 4x that dumping trash and being at home nightly. A lot of other majors won't touch a furloughed major airline pilot without him resigning his seniority number (quitting).
 
notawannabee said:
I'm looking at several groups of people and trying to get some opinions on "timing" in this industry.

1. pilots employed
2. pilots furloughed
3. CFI 's coming close to the minimums for regional hire
4. newly minted CFI's
5. new student that needs all ratings

In your opinion, where is the place to be ? 1 and 3 may seem like obvious choices, but there are many factors that may come into play.
Where are the cusp of retirements coming ? Do they exist ? and where are they? It seems to be the retirements are concentrated at certain carriers.

My guess would be that a recent new hire regional FO could go to captain in 4-5 years at the regional, or go to a major as a FO ( due to the retirements coming ).

The new student....what if he takes his time and gets to hiring minimums in 5 years....pay may be higher then, and the new hire would have less of a struggle financially. In my opinion, I know this is a long shot, and I wouldn't count on it.

One of the trends I'm hoping for is less people choosing aviation as a profession, and the demand goes up. Add that with mandantory retirements, and there could be alot of opportunity....or is this all hype.

What are the trends on these furloughed pilots ? Are they keeping current, or do they find another ( supplemental ?) occupation?

Are the furloughed pilots competition to the newbies ? Why ?


I know it's alot of questions, and so many variables I didn't mention, but thnaks in advance for all your input.
Click to expand...

Where am I?
None of above!
I think I already put the last nail in my coffin at SkyWest.

Is it possible to have burnout before being an airline pilot?
 
I believe I saw in one of your post where you have been with your company for 9 years...I think I also saw where you are FO..but that may be an old post. When someone changes from FO to CA, do they go to the bottom of a " general " seniority list, or is there a separate list for each FO and CAPT ?

Or I guess a better question is....is there a difference in being a very senior level FO or a low level CAPT in terms of vulnerbility of getting furloughed?
 
notawannabee said:
I believe I saw in one of your post where you have been with your company for 9 years...I think I also saw where you are FO..but that may be an old post. When someone changes from FO to CA, do they go to the bottom of a " general " seniority list, or is there a separate list for each FO and CAPT ?

Or I guess a better question is....is there a difference in being a very senior level FO or a low level CAPT in terms of vulnerbility of getting furloughed?
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Read post #8 in this thread
 
I see..thanks.
a little off subject, but what do you think about the popularity of the new (affordable ? ) light jets. Could they could hurt business for the regionals ?
 
notawannabee said:
I see..thanks.
a little off subject, but what do you think about the popularity of the new (affordable ? ) light jets. Could they could hurt business for the regionals ?
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Regionals don't have business. You can't book a ticket on Mesa, Skywest or Republic.

But to answer the question at large, it's doubtful.
 
where??!

Doug Taylor said:
There's no 'binding competition contract' in the pilot business. "Disenfranchised" meaning that if I got furloughed, the benefit of me starting over as a new hire at a regional to make $18/flight hour to sit reserve in ORD is silly because I can largely make 4x that dumping trash and being at home nightly. A lot of other majors won't touch a furloughed major airline pilot without him resigning his seniority number (quitting).
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Doug, where can you dump trash that pays that well?? Enquiring minds want to know!

On another subject, Delta management is well, HYPOXIC!! I mean how can they expect you guys to take a 70% total paycut while they give themselves millions in bonuses?

Doug is it possible that the employees of Delta can buy the company? I think what the current management is asking is totally unfair, so why not tender an offer and make those guys leave??

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

Imagine the great things Delta could do if owned by well, you! (repeat this for thousands of times)
 
notawannabee said:
I know it's alot of questions, and so many variables I didn't mention, but thnaks in advance for all your input.
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The main, and probably most important, variable you didn't mention: The industry as you see it now is not the industry as it will be in 5 or 10 years. It is in the middle of a restructuring. If the industry is going to get healthy again there will be some consolidation and closing of hubs. If there isn't then sick companies who limp out of bk will likely be back in shortly.

That throws any "upgrade" and growth projections into serious question.

The biggest trick will be getting on with the right company. SWA would top my personal list, freight operators would be up there. After that it gets really dicey.
 
One of the trends I'm hoping for is less people choosing aviation as a profession, and the demand goes up. Add that with mandantory retirements, and there could be alot of opportunity....or is this all hype.
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As long as there are large shiny full page adds "be an airline pilot in 10 months for only $70k" or "START your career in the right seat of a Beech 1900 aircraft! You won't have to teach a soul about steep turns!" or "being owned by a cheeseburger means everything!" you'll see a demand to become an airline pilot.
 
I don't know whether I'm hungry, or if I feel nausea because I know who you're talking about!
 
sorrygottarunway said:
Zudem ist die Saab 2000 das einzige Regionalflugzeug der Welt, welches eine Bordtoilette mit Blick nach draussen bietet.
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ja, das stimmt....es geht ein biss langsam, aber der blick aus dem fenster sieht so schon aus. wohin hast du die deustsche sprache gelernt. wieleicht koonen wir einen forum entwickeln, nur fur deutschen Piloten.

tchuB
 
Which one of you hessians are going to try to 'unpimp my ride'? :)

feb22pimp.jpg
 
its all one list. when you get the seniority you can move into the left seat. but you'll have last pick at trips. thats why some guys like to sit as a very senior fo instead of upgrading
 
Does anyone here believe there will be/could be a pilot "shortage" in the future? I've read (and I know Doug provided evidence against this in the 2nd post) that Southwest is expecting to lose 50% of their pilots in the next 5-6 years (I know...long time) and I read that another airline is expecting to lose 54% of their pilots in the same time frame. With the state that the industry is currently in, it seems that less and less people are attracted to aviation. Also, todays young adults, teens, and what not are far more interested in the booming medical field and IT fields. I know there will always be the desire to be an airline pilot, however, with it on the decline and the baby-boom generation closing in on mandatory retirement, does anyone believe there will be/could be a "shortage?"
 
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