Thats a gamble where you better be prepared to pay the price if you lose, one way or another.
Yes, indeed. I was hesitant to even bring this topic up because I know how "cowboy" it sounds. But I also think it's worth talking about, because I know it happens out in the real world.
Where Ive seen this get busted directly was an accident post-takeoff, normally immediately following. Saw this with a PA-32R taking off from Arkansas just a few years ago. Crashed just after takeoff after being "only" 200 lbs overweight, killing 3 people, with two more injured. Granted the pilot was killed, so in terms of enforcement action, thats a moot point. But facts and intentions can be proven at particular times.
It's hard for me to comment on this without knowing more details. Here are a couple of the first thoughts that popped into my mind--200 pounds in a PA32R is not the same as 200 pounds in a a Baron, or 402, or Beech 1900 (in terms of percent GTOW). Also, what was the runway length/obstacles/density altitude? Was the accident caused directly and solely as a result of the weight? I can't help but wonder if engine trouble or weight outside of CG limits were also a factor.
Additionally, I didn't mean to imply 200 pounds overweight is somehow a magic number for being safe. 200 pounds is quite a lot, depending on the aircraft and location.
This is why in my original post I questioned the safety of ghost fuel and left it up to decide by the PIC in the moment.
Here's where the question of necessity comes in. Can the plane fly overweight? Likely yes. But why would you be doing it; in terms of what is the priority of the mission that would drive doing this? It's one thing to be doing what needs to be done in order to save a human beings' life/limb/eyesight. It's another to do it for junk boxes or cargo.
Very true. Unfortunately that's getting in to philosophy beyond what any of us can solve in a single thread on the interwebs.
Let me add a few thoughts that might help clarify my original post.
There are many operators who fly without really knowing what's on their flight and could easily end up a bit overweight in the real world, while the numbers work on paper. I saw a joke in another thread recently about how ALL airline passengers weigh the FAA-standard 189 pounds in the winter. Sure.
I'll use my own carrier as an example, flying 402s. I should add, there are numerous reasons why I would never need to "ghost" fuel at this operation, but I'll use the numbers from here because it's what I know best.
We ask for passenger body weights during check-in. Let's say all nine pax fudge their weight by 10 pounds to the flattering side (or two passengers each lie by 40 or 50 pounds--not at all impossible!). And our fuel gauges are pretty accurate, but it's still not impossible to mis-read by 50 or 60 pounds. The difference between 500 and 550 pounds is hard to see. Now we're talking about potentially carrying 150 pounds total more than we intended. At normal cruise speed, that's nearly an hour's worth of fuel. At holding speed, that's over an hour's worth.
The OP pointed out how it's very difficult to know exactly how much fuel is in a Baron. We all agree this is not an exact science.
So why place a fuel order under the assumption that it IS an exact science? Especially when you know you're going to be dealing with unpredictable weather. And you're trusting the previous pilot's count, who might have been trusting the pilot before him as well. In the original post, times are mentioned down to the tenth of a hour. Why are you measuring fuel down to the tenth of an hour when you didn't REALLY know how much fuel you started with?
I think there is a time and place to "stack the deck" in your favor, so to speak. Sometimes that extra 100 pounds of fuel is going to make the difference between an easy diversion, versus sweating your balls off, constantly glancing at the gauges, hoping you don't become a glider in low IMC.
I should also point out that I'm not talking about sticking a little extra freight on to be a company man, or flying with twice as much fuel as you need, without listing it. I'm not advocating flying over gross weight all the time. Don't throw out flight planning because a guy on the internet said it doesn't matter. That's not what I'm saying. Don't let the company push you into doing something you don't think is safe. I can't stress this enough--you have to use this advice within reason.
All I'm saying is, this is another tool to help keep yourself from getting backed in to a corner.