kellwolf
Piece of Trash
No kidding. Get rocked at FL210, and then the guy gets the Fail Whale on his screen.
Single-pilot crews for airliners?
- Thread starter seaav8tor
- Start date
No kidding. Get rocked at FL210, and then the guy gets the Fail Whale on his screen.
If you took the new iphone gen4, went back in time 30 years and told the computer design engineers of the time what its capabilities would be 30 years into the future, they would scoff and laugh................. just like you mw.
By the way mw, the rate of change has been and is increasing. My estimates are probably way too conservative.
http://www.aircargonews.net/News/Are-robo~freighters-the-future.aspx
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JoelT
Well-Known Member
Technology has almost nothing to do with it. The reason why we have two pilots up there is for descision making. Two heads are better than one. We are there to back each other up. So, not until artificial intelligence comes along that has the fear of death will we ever see single pilot or no pilot airliners.
upup89
Well-Known Member
exactly.
No matter how good the technology gets I just cant see UAV or even single pilot Airliners. I myself would have a hard time justifying riding on one.
Polar742
All the responsibility none of the authority
I'll say they'll have no pilots about the time the launch a single on revenue service across a pond. Ya'll should be smart enough to never say never.
I know my company is buying brand new airplanes that require 2 pilots at the controls, and they are expecting 20-35 years out of the airframes.
I wonder how much it'd cost to do all the retrofits? I'll bet older planes won't even have the capabilities for it. We can't even fully integrate EFBs into the 747-400 due to the limited databus capabilities.
We'd be talking probably a new airframe, and early retirement of existing frames. Good for manufacturers, bad for business.
$5 of my $.02
I know my company is buying brand new airplanes that require 2 pilots at the controls, and they are expecting 20-35 years out of the airframes.
I wonder how much it'd cost to do all the retrofits? I'll bet older planes won't even have the capabilities for it. We can't even fully integrate EFBs into the 747-400 due to the limited databus capabilities.
We'd be talking probably a new airframe, and early retirement of existing frames. Good for manufacturers, bad for business.
$5 of my $.02
There is a book called "The Singularity is Near" by Ray Kurzweil. It posits that we are approaching a "technological singularity," a point at which computers become "smarter" (for lack of a better word) than humans. Such computers could, in theory, then be used to develop even smarter computers, and so on.
I don't know if it will happen or not, but when I think about our technological capabilities today when compared to just 10 years ago...
I don't know if it will happen or not, but when I think about our technological capabilities today when compared to just 10 years ago...
PhilosopherPilot
Well-Known Member
I'm amazed at how short-sighted people are on this issue. It may not happen in my lifetime, but never is a LONG time. It will happen. No question. As long as civilization isn't wiped out beforehand, it will happen. It may be 200 years, but probably more like 75 to 100, and that is generous.
How can you say what will be in existence in 500 years? Never is longer than that, people.
Polar742
All the responsibility none of the authority
KLB
Well-Known Member
My career will be over and I'd be long gone by then. I don't care so much what happens after I'm gone.
falconvalley
Absentee Dad of the OOTSK, Runner, Cat Frustrator
The crew reductions we've seen followed a technological change in aircraft. I would figure another reduction would result from a similar scenario, but not quite the same. Navigators did what their name implies. Flight Engineers managed systems. When aircraft had the technology to allow the workloads of both positions to be done by the Capt and FO, those positions went away. They were very unique positions, however. The Capt and FO are essentially separated by ultimate responsibility these days. Other than that, they do pretty much the same job. Therefore, imo when aircraft that come off the line are virtually "uncrashable" with the absence of the redundancy of the FO, then we'll see single pilot airlines. The aircraft will need to be able to do the job of a second set of eyes or be fully automated without the need for normal human intervention. Today's UAV's are NOT fully automated. I think we're a ways away from fully automated air travel.
Bumblebee
Commodore
beam me to Toledo!
[slightly off-topic]
This discussion along with the recent Father's Day celebration, remind me of my father's perspective on life. He's semi-retired, but still runs a tree farm on a few hundred acres of gorgeous property north of here. He's in better shape than I am and is a whiz with a chain saw and two weeks ago they used a portable saw mill to cut up some beautiful cherry, ash, and pine logs. He plants 500 to 1,000 new hardwood trees every year.
Trees that won't be fully mature and harvestable for 80 to 100 years.
My dad turned 80 years old this year.
He has a true long term perspective.
Just a reminder that 5 or 10 years is a really SHORT period of time.
[/o-t]
This discussion along with the recent Father's Day celebration, remind me of my father's perspective on life. He's semi-retired, but still runs a tree farm on a few hundred acres of gorgeous property north of here. He's in better shape than I am and is a whiz with a chain saw and two weeks ago they used a portable saw mill to cut up some beautiful cherry, ash, and pine logs. He plants 500 to 1,000 new hardwood trees every year.
Trees that won't be fully mature and harvestable for 80 to 100 years.
My dad turned 80 years old this year.
He has a true long term perspective.
Just a reminder that 5 or 10 years is a really SHORT period of time.
[/o-t]
C150J
Well-Known Member
I'll say it again - when this happens (I'll posit that it'll take longer than you predict, but that's not my point), there WILL be jobs that pique the interest of once-winged aviators. From luddites to early adopters, we've seen the "response spectrum" for posts like these. Regardless, there will be interesting jobs out there.
trafficinsight
Well-Known Member
(8) A computer will kill 500 people and CNN will ask "How could the FAA have let this happen?" But will anything change? nope.
trafficinsight
Well-Known Member
Actually I think it goes: "We all should be smart enough to say NEVER"
Seriously, it's a road we should not go down.