Single-pilot crews for airliners?

seaav8tor

New Member
Also mentioned in the article but worth pointing out here, there has been in the past, FEs, Radio Operators, Navs, Flight Mechanics, etc. All gone.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/06/22/343425/comment-single-pilot-crews-for-airliners.html



How many pilots does it take to fly a commercial airliner? At the moment the regulators say two, but some of the reasons for having such a rule will not be valid for state-of-the-art aircraft in a few years.

All aircraft can be flown by a single pilot. The most basic safety argument for requiring two is pilot incapacitation, and flightdecks are designed so that the one remaining fit pilot can bring the aircraft home safely, even if it were the captain who had become incapacitated. So, regulation accepts a single pilot can operate an airliner, but only allows it in an emergency.
It is outside the arena of direct regulation that the arguments for and against a single-pilot crew become most interesting: the arenas of practical considerations and cultural reactions. Here's one practical consideration: all airline pilots would have to be rated as aircraft commanders, but how would they achieve that competency without a co-piloting apprenticeship?
Here's another: if security regulations remain as they are, all types except short-hop regionals would require an en-suite flightdeck. And the autopilot must be approved for periods of pilot absence from the controls, with a mode that does not allow it to trip out, which raises lots of technical questions.

It was undoubtedly once true that crew workload demanded a pair of pilots, a flight engineer and - even further back in aviation history - a navigator and radio operator. The reasons such a crew is no longer necessary are too obvious to need rehashing here. An aeroplane today may be extremely complex, but self-monitoring automation and massive advances in system reliability has reduced the human operator's workload dramatically. And Embraer, the first manufacturer to break cover on the issue of single-pilot crews, correctly cites future air traffic management systems as an influential enabling component. The new environment will be one in which the precise four-dimensional navigation of a flight will have become a largely automated, centrally co-ordinated exercise.

A single human operative in a completely automated environment would risk being psychologically out of the loop when the automation failed, and therefore likely to be ineffective.

The questions that really arise are not whether the crew could be reduced to one, but the more subjective issues of whether it should be done, whether it is practical, and finally whether the pilot would best be on the aircraft, or controlling it remotely.
 
Admittedly, this scenario from a "makes logical sense" standpoint has some momentum. That being said, the fundamental reality is that it's a long long long way from happening. Could I safely fly an airliner from point A to point B? I certainly think so and it has been demonstrated that it can be done many times. The problem comes in the "what if" area. Despite all the gadgetry and technology that exists today, there isn't sufficient reliability or redundancy to replace that second pilot. Hell, the Space Shuttle still has reliability issues and you would think that with an almost unlimited budget to work with, NASA could have a pretty flawless vehicle - NOPE. I have seen too many strange and unusual anomalies on the flight deck to believe that a single pilot airliner, who is flying one heartbeat away from being pilotless, will ever be embraced and accepted by society. I do accept however that if a man 100 years ago were to be asked about the things we routinely do today, you would likely get the same "it will never happen" response.
 
Admittedly, this scenario from a "makes logical sense" standpoint has some momentum. That being said, the fundamental reality is that it's a long long long way from happening. Could I safely fly an airliner from point A to point B? I certainly think so and it has been demonstrated that it can be done many times. The problem comes in the "what if" area. Despite all the gadgetry and technology that exists today, there isn't sufficient reliability or redundancy to replace that second pilot. Hell, the Space Shuttle still has reliability issues and you would think that with an almost unlimited budget to work with, NASA could have a pretty flawless vehicle - NOPE. I have seen too many strange and unusual anomalies on the flight deck to believe that a single pilot airliner, who is flying one heartbeat away from being pilotless, will ever be embraced and accepted by society. I do accept however that if a man 100 years ago were to be asked about the things we routinely do today, you would likely get the same "it will never happen" response.

Good points. While technology will continue to advance, the one limitation here is the human body. Until they put Terminators onboard flying, it might take a while for people to accept a 1 man crew for major airlines.

That being said, smaller outfits down here in the carribean do fly single pilot. I don't think Flamenco, Sea Flight, Vieques Air Link, and other like that don't go IFR, but Cape Air does for sure. So here you have up to 9 people that are willing to ride with one guy, even in bad weather. Heck Sea Flight and VAL fly Caravans over the water filled with PAX, and I guess the public doesn't think how that could be a problem either.
 
Good points. While technology will continue to advance, the one limitation here is the human body. Until they put Terminators onboard flying, it might take a while for people to accept a 1 man crew for major airlines.

That being said, smaller outfits down here in the carribean do fly single pilot. I don't think Flamenco, Sea Flight, Vieques Air Link, and other like that don't go IFR, but Cape Air does for sure. So here you have up to 9 people that are willing to ride with one guy, even in bad weather. Heck Sea Flight and VAL fly Caravans over the water filled with PAX, and I guess the public doesn't think how that could be a problem either.
The willingness of passengers to get in the airplane is one thing, but the complexity of cascading system failures in a large airliner vs. the possibilities of system failures in a twin piston is not comparable.
 
the gamer on the ground takes over.

Aww crud. I was fixing to have a smug reply that there will be single-pilot airliners as soon as there are single-engine transport aircraft (the "737NG²" with one GEnx).

But yeah, I could totally see a Modest Proposal being made where the captain is on the aircraft, and an F/O is back on the ground, working several flights at the same time with new-fangled telepresence. :(
 
Bumblebee said:
The willingness of passengers to get in the airplane is one thing, but the complexity of cascading system failures in a large airliner vs. the possibilities of system failures in a twin piston is not comparable.

That is true. A 402 is significantly less complex than a transport category jet. However, who's to say the jet couldn't be designed to be automated to the point one pilot could handle cascading failures? For instance, a bleed leak on a modern jet requires the crew to break open the QRH and go through it step by step. One person flies and the other person works through the procedure. What if the aircraft went through the procedure itself? In the case of a bleed leak, the aircraft will automatically isolate the bleed and keep the pilot updated on what it's doing. If the computer does something the pilot doesn't like, he can override it. The computer will also prompt the pilot if, for example, an engine needs to be shut down to stop the leak. Just being the devil's advocate here.

By the way, even though systems on the 402 aren't as complex, single-pilot workload can be very high. In fact, more so than in the ERJ I used to fly. Instead of two people working out a problem, you have one person running through QRH procedures, doing the radios, and flying. If I pop an engine on takeoff, I have to run through memory items then 4-5 QRH procedures once I'm on autopilot above 1000'. This isn't the same type of flying guys remember from their multi-instrument days.
 
This isn't the same type of flying guys remember from their multi-instrument days.

I agree, it isn't (I flew a C401 all over the Caribbean and into Central America) and I am not diminishing at all the workload of a single pilot in a complex twin (they are complex for a reason). It's when you get multiple failures such as in a fire situation, or when a blade comes apart and takes out other systems in a cabin class airliner that you need two people there.

I am certain that automation can make things completely manageable when the automation is working. We have airliners that land on a/p right now...the taxi is the toughest part of the flight in the fog. I do believe that there will be a day when we have automated transportation systems...autos,trains,planes,ships...but when something goes haywire...look out ;)
 
That is true. A 402 is significantly less complex than a transport category jet. However, who's to say the jet couldn't be designed to be automated to the point one pilot could handle cascading failures? For instance, a bleed leak on a modern jet requires the crew to break open the QRH and go through it step by step. One person flies and the other person works through the procedure. What if the aircraft went through the procedure itself? In the case of a bleed leak, the aircraft will automatically isolate the bleed and keep the pilot updated on what it's doing. If the computer does something the pilot doesn't like, he can override it. The computer will also prompt the pilot if, for example, an engine needs to be shut down to stop the leak. Just being the devil's advocate here.


Makes sense, but the more complex things get, the more likely something is gonna break. Can't count how many times I look at the CRJ and think "Why the hell is it doing that?" or "What's up with THAT glitch?" FD/AP likes to take you into parts unknown, and I've seen instrument students capture a localizer better some times. Doesn't really instill me with a lot of confidence on single pilot stuff. If the computer is troubleshooting something like a bleed leak, what if it gets stuck in a logic loop and never tells you? In the end, it may just be cheaper to have two pilots than all the automation with the infrastructure to make sure it keeps working. A BIC pen is cheaper than parts, which is why we see a whole lot of stuff starting to be deferred on our airplanes again. :)
 
I could fly the EMB-145 single pilot no problem with the way the aircraft is currently configured. If guys can operate a Metroliner single pilot, an EMB-145 would be cake.

That being said, it'll never happen for passenger ops. It's not about the technical facility in being able to accomplish the task of operating the aircraft safely; it's about redundancy.
 
That being said, it'll never happen for passenger ops. It's not about the technical facility in being able to accomplish the task of operating the aircraft safely it's about redundancy.


Bingo. Something we agree on, finally.

:beer:

I may just buy you a beer now in Vegas.
 
That being said, it'll never happen for passenger ops. It's not about the technical facility in being able to accomplish the task of operating the aircraft safely; it's about redundancy.


This is a crude approximation of how it will happen

(1) NextGen is in place

(2) A joint working group of ICAO, ATA, RAA, FAA, and aircraft manufactures will build fail-safe specifications for equipment that will fly the aircraft automonously without any pilots.

(3) They will then have a demonstration period with freighters. One pilot to be renamed the "on board flight manager" will be able to do the same things his counterpart on the ground can do.

(4) At some point public perception will accept/believe the new auto-flight concept is statistacally safer than the old way.

(5) Freighters will start flying without the "on board manager" for trans-oceanic flights.

(6) Passenger aircraft will be flown with a single "on board manager".

(7) Both freight and passeger service will be flown without an "on board manager".

Timeline:

15 years to step 3,4

20 years to step 5,6

30 years to step 7
 
Be a long way to go to get there. Ask how many drones get lost by the military in a year. Also, they'll have to beef up signals somehow or they'll never be able to fly through WX unless the guy on board takes over. Nothing like a lighting bolt to cause enough static to turn the airplane off course. Heck, it's bad enough sometimes I can't hear ATC. Imagine if the plane's navigation was dependent on that signal.

By this timeline, we should have 100% automated trains by now, but we don't.
 
Be a long way to go to get there. Ask how many drones get lost by the military in a year. Also, they'll have to beef up signals somehow or they'll never be able to fly through WX unless the guy on board takes over. Nothing like a lighting bolt to cause enough static to turn the airplane off course. Heck, it's bad enough sometimes I can't hear ATC. Imagine if the plane's navigation was dependent on that signal.

By this timeline, we should have 100% automated trains by now, but we don't.

first they have to figure out how to keep the autopilot from kicking off during mod/sev turbulence:laff:
 
That timeline is nothing but wishful thinking by sea8. Everyday he has a new post about how the 121 side of things is dying, pilot pay is falling, no more major jobs, etc, etc.

Yet the reality is Alaska and Spirit have just signed new deals with raises. There are numerous other airlines who's contracts are coming up, and Delta is hiring at least 240 people this year.
 
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