Single pilot airliners may be

Soku39 said:
We are creating a very special hell for ourselves with this technology.
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In Information Technology we call it job security.

When I first started flying most aircraft owners were Doctors and Lawyers, all I could afford was a rental. Today half the guys in my hangar row work in Information Technology. The young doctors and lawyers can't afford a plane, student loans.
 
Soku39 said:
Sorry man, typing novels on the i-phone sucks, no need to get pissy about it.
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Not pissy at all, it just requires some editing so we can understand your meaning, unless you're bragging about having to answer your phone every 5 minutes.
 
The buggy whip makers transitioned to something else, the horse grooms transitioned to something else (rampers?), the flight engineers transitioned to something else....

Machines now can learn beyond what they are specifically programmed to do, and that will just increase in capability and complexity. My iPhone is waaaay smarter than my first Apple II-e.

Play this out - only stud and motherhood will remain, and if the Japanese men are all watching porn instead of procreating....
 
Soku39 said:
And this I love thanks for the laugh. I'm still impressed by United's decision on ground handling at Denver. Save 10 cents to spend a buck!



This is pretty much where I'm at, but ya it's gonna get rail painful in the next 20 or 30 years, until then I'll still have to hear the "they don't have work cause they're lazy, they just need to pick themselves up by their bootstraps" line from the American right.



The thing doesn't have to be as good as your dog, your dog is only that agile because he needed to be able to hunt. The things we're talking about just to need to carry stuff, or do whatever one application they're designed for. As mentioned there is at least 10 years of red tape on this ever happening, plus design, I mean we're talking 25 years before this could actually happen. That and I love flying. Oh ya, I have friends that are non-profit directors, doctors, lawyers, welders, programmers, librarians etc... guess who works the least for the most amount of money, guess whose phone does ring on every 5 seconds with some demand on their time, yep it's me. That said I will eventually need to figure out something else to do.



In the long run of course, but there is gonna be some pain along the way, a lot of people who are lot smarter than me have observed this. http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-bots-are-taking-away-jobs-2014-3. It's coming and you can't tell me it's not. It's not even that I believe the sky is falling as much as I wish people and governments would just get their heads out of the sand and start preparing.
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Soku39 said:
They were very wrong, but it is at this point extremely clear that technology can do pretty much whatever a human can, however it does it more accurately, faster, efficiently and better than we ever could.
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So then all jobs are in danger. Not just operators of machines. The rise of Big Data and technology's ability to use that data faster and better has implications for everyone. Google 'The Technological Singularity'. Youtube 'Humans Need Not Apply.' The point is humans won't be able to keep up. So really, if your in your 20s it will be hard to predict what job you can 'train' for. Remember, technology increases exponentially, not linear.
 
Louie1975 said:
So then all jobs are in danger. Not just operators of machines. The rise of Big Data and technology's ability to use that data faster and better has implications for everyone. Google 'The Technological Singularity'. Youtube 'Humans Need Not Apply.' The point is humans won't be able to keep up. So really, if your in your 20s it will be hard to predict what job you can 'train' for. Remember, technology increases exponentially, not linear.
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This is why I haven't left aviation yet or chosen another field of study to focus on, I have no idea what will be needed even 10 years from now. I'm giving it some time to observe and see how it "shakes out" before I invest my time and energy into another career path.
 
ppragman said:
Honestly, no way. This will come as soon as the price is around the $1,000,000 mark - and the cost vs. capability of avionics goes down markedly every year.

I mean consider this:

Air Wisconsin's payscale for a First Officer on min guarantee from APC:

First Year Pay: $24,300
Second Year Pay: $36,000
Third Year Pay: $37,800
Fourth Year Pay: $38,700
Fifth Year Pay: $39,600
Sixth Year Pay: $41,400
Seventh Year Pay: $42,300
Eighth Year Pay: $44,100

Let's assume that this guy gets no per diem, opts out of all his benefits, and so on and doesn't cost the company anything but minimum guarantee for the entire time he works there. Also, let's assume he never upgrades. His salary total is $304,200 over 8 years.

Even if scheduling is insanely efficient - making airliners single pilot eliminates at least 2 first officers per airplane. We're at $608,400 in wages alone for this to be worth it.

The first company to do this will see a huge competitive advantage, it will be astounding. According to wikipedia, Air Whiskey has 71 CRJ200s and 860 pilots. Assuming that half of the pilots at AWAC are FOs, even if all of the FOs were on min guarantee it would save at least $10.4 million per year not to have first officers in salaries alone. Not to mention the costs of benefits, retirement, healthcare, insurance, etc.
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Agreed, you hit the nail on the head, but I don't see the acquisition cost of an unmanned aircraft being that cheap yet... Single pilot now.... Hmmm maybe sooner. Don't forget they still have to get the FAA on board...

It'll be interesting to look back and see whose prediction was closest. Only time will tell.
 
dustoff17 said:
Give it a rest!

With him, we're always being graded. Graded but not corrected......and so we never learn! :confused2:
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I was asking for clarification, what had been written seemed odd and might have been the result of fumble fingers. We're all adults here, if we acn't eevn prof our posts then
 
My guess is the single pilot airliner will evolve right alongside processing capabilities that will exceed the human brain, this will lead to automated systems that can out-fly and out-think even the best human, reliably. Basically, the only reason even one pilot will be on-board is because people will need a long time to trust a no-pilot airliner.

And for the people who say that people will never step foot on a plane without a human pilot, I say look at elevators, trains, and even airplanes which used to have 3 people up front.
 
I'm confident it will happen, those of us not comfortable with the concept will fight it. After it has been done " generational shift " will take over and those brought up with it in place will just accept it as normal... For the most part.
:)
Don't believe it? Ask someone that grew up interested in airplanes in the post navigator time frame, then ask those growing up in the post FE time frame.
 
There's a HUGE difference between navigators, flight engineers, and the actual pilots. I'm not saying it won't happen, but it's not a done deal like some are portraying in this thread. There are an exponential amount of hurdles for this to actually happen.
 
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