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tiredofshoveling

tiredofshoveling

Well-Known Member
I would like to know if we can get some hard numbers on the airlines retrirement schedules. How man pilots are set to retire from which airlines and when? This might help us understand what is in store for the hiriing situation.
 
tiredofshoveling said:
I would like to know if we can get some hard numbers on the airlines retrirement schedules. How man pilots are set to retire from which airlines and when? This might help us understand what is in store for the hiriing situation.
Click to expand...

It's a moving target. How many are gonna stay until they're 65? How many can hold their medical until their 65? How may are financially able to retire earlier? How many will bust a training event and be shown the door?

If you can't answer those questions, you can't accurately gauge the retirement picture. Best response: a little better than most people think and a lot worse than what the big box flight schools say in the recruiting speech.

Another wild card is how many CAs have been at the regionals so long they're gonna opt to stay rather than make the leap to a major. I know at my airline alone that number has gone up compared to what it was 2-3 years ago.
 
you didnt get the memo about the mass exodus of airline pilots and theres going to be a severe shortage just around the corner?


heavy :sarcasm:
 
Retirements per year at age 65

Continental
2012 7
2013 183
2014 198
2015 186
2016 205
2017 210
2018 180
2019 194
2020 169
2021 188
2022 180
2023 187
2024 154
2025 156
2026 166
2027 167
2028 204
2029 154
2030 170
2031 119


Delta/Northwest

2009 6
2010 13
2011 15
2012 24
2013 139
2014 238
2015 278
2016 330
2017 386
2018 469
2019 558
2020 645
2021 830
2022 870
2023 824
2024 811
2025 727
2026 626
2027 522
2028 491
2029 485
2030 509
2031 449
2032 347
2033 271
2034 182
2035 122
2036 103
2037 19

United

2012 - 263
2013 - 235
2014 - 231
2015 - 201
2016 - 167
2017 - 228
2018 - 246
2019 - 239
2020 - 271
2021 - 330
2022 - 305
2023 - 383
2024 - 356
2025 - 461
2026 - 508
2027 - 503
2028 - 574
2029 - 539
2030 - 561
2031 - 407


American

2010 0
2011 0
2012 5
2013 138
2014 225
2015 274
2016 262
2017 286
2018 363
2019 458
2020 550
2021 609
2022 661
2023 714
2024 726
2025 737
2026 711
2027 588
2028 498
2029 476
 
Quick compile
2010 13
2011 15
2012 299
2013 695
2014 892
2015 939
2016 964
2017 1110
2018 1258
2019 1449
2020 1635
2021 1957
2022 2016
2023 2108
2024 2047
2025 2081
2026 2011
2027 1780
2028 1767
2029 1654
2030 1240
2031 975
2032 347
2033 271
2034 182
2035 122
2036 103
2037 19
 
Please keep in mind that these numbers mean absolutely nothing. Especially beyond 2-3 years.
They do not take into account major routes sold (er...underbid) to regionals, mergers and bankruptcies. All it takes is one of those airlines to go out of business and suddenly there are 4000+ experienced pilots out of work, competing for the job you thought was "yours." This business is littered with carcasses of airlines that eliminated the "looming pilot shortage" that I have waited on since 1984.

Another angle: The high average needed per year is around 2000. More ATPs are issued every year than those required by retirees. Every year that passes multiplies the number of available pilots in the pool. Imagine if 5000 COM/ATPs are added for 5 years, but hiring is near the low average of 200. 25,000 pilots of which 1000 were required.
 
NJA_Capt said:
Please keep in mind that these numbers mean absolutely nothing. Especially beyond 2-3 years.
They do not take into account major routes sold (er...underbid) to regionals, mergers and bankruptcies. All it takes is one of those airlines to go out of business and suddenly there are 4000+ experienced pilots out of work, competing for the job you thought was "yours." This business is littered with carcasses of airlines that eliminated the "looming pilot shortage" that I have waited on since 1984.

Another angle: The high average needed per year is around 2000. More ATPs are issued every year than those required by retirees. Every year that passes multiplies the number of available pilots in the pool. Imagine if 5000 COM/ATPs are added for 5 years, but hiring is near the low average of 200. 25,000 pilots of which 1000 were required.
Click to expand...

:yeahthat:


Also, like I have mentioned on here several times. I truly believe the term "pilot shortage" was invented as a marketing term!
 
NJA_Capt said:
Please keep in mind that these numbers mean absolutely nothing. Especially beyond 2-3 years.
They do not take into account major routes sold (er...scoped out) to regionals, mergers and bankruptcies
Click to expand...

Fixed it for you. :)
 
PS...
The above list shows approx 30,000 retirees over 27 years. Each year there are approx 60,000 student starts. It only takes 1.6% of those students per year to fill the average hiring requirement.

CRJDriver said:
Also, like I have mentioned on here several times. I truly believe the term "pilot shortage" was invented as a marketing term!
Click to expand...
There has never been a pilot shortage since 1903.
Two Wright Brothers.....One airplane.
 
NJA_Capt said:
PS...
The above list shows approx 30,000 retirees over 27 years. Each year there are approx 60,000 student starts. It only takes 1.6% of those students per year to fill the average hiring requirement.
Click to expand...

We all know, however, that out of those 60,000 student starts, perhaps only 20% become ATPs? Even fewer shoot for major airlines. I'd also be interested in seeing the numbers for student starts. According to the FAA, there were only 68,785 student pilots as of 04/01/2010. Many of those student pilots won't even get as far as a Private Pilot certificate.
 
tiredofshoveling said:
I would like to know if we can get some hard numbers on the airlines retrirement schedules. How man pilots are set to retire from which airlines and when? This might help us understand what is in store for the hiriing situation.
Click to expand...

Hard numbers? Forgetaboutit! :)

"Best guesses"? Now we're talkin'!
 
dasleben said:
We all know, however, that out of those 60,000 student starts, perhaps only 20% become ATPs? Even fewer shoot for major airlines. I'd also be interested in seeing the numbers for student starts. According to the FAA, there were only 68,785 student pilots as of 04/01/2010. Many of those student pilots won't even get as far as a Private Pilot certificate.
Click to expand...

I'd be interested to know how many of those are international students.

Edit: OK, I take it back. I looked at your the report and now realize those 68k are all US pilots.
 
dasleben said:
We all know, however, that out of those 60,000 student starts, perhaps only 20% become ATPs? Even fewer shoot for major airlines. I'd also be interested in seeing the numbers for student starts. According to the FAA, there were only 68,785 student pilots as of 04/01/2010. Many of those student pilots won't even get as far as a Private Pilot certificate.
Click to expand...

That's the key factor why I ignore the "doom and gloom" crowd here.

Student pilot starts have been trending down for the last 30 years, while the total flying demand has been rising.

EVENTUALLY the majors will FINALLY exaust their furlough lists and will have to start hiring. While they will always have plenty of applicants at United and American, the other areas of the industry will see rapid movement.
 
dasleben said:
Many of those student pilots won't even get as far as a Private Pilot certificate.
Click to expand...
I guess you didn't read my last sentence. Yes....I know that not all will go the airline route. As I wrote: It only takes 1.6% to make it to the airlines to fill the retirement quota.....IF THE PROJECTIONS ARE EVEN CLOSE. Currently, 8.3% earn their ATPs.

In the last 4 years there have been approx 20,000 ATPs earned. If no more were earned.....those 20,000 would more than offset 4 years worth of airline retirements.

USMCmech said:
That's the key factor why I ignore the "doom and gloom" crowd here.

Student pilot starts have been trending down for the last 30 years, while the total flying demand has been rising.
Click to expand...

Not according to the data. Only looking back as far as 1999, there were increases in Student starts in 2000, 2002, and 2007. The average has been consistent from 1999 to present at 60,000.

PPLs have declined for a few years. Commercials increased from 2005-2008. ATPs increased from 2003-2007. GA flt activity was relatively flat from 1999-2007 but DECREASED in 2008. Avgas sales have decreased steadily since 1999. Jet fuel sales have decreased since 2000 and are near 1997 consumption.

No doom and gloom. But too many people are still wearing their Kit Darby issued rose colored spectacles.
 
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