Seniority

NJA_Capt said:
Not according to the data. Only looking back as far as 1999, there were increases in Student starts in 2000, 2002, and 2007. The average has been consistent from 1999 to present at 60,000.

PPLs have declined for a few years. Commercials increased from 2005-2008. ATPs increased from 2003-2007. GA flt activity was relatively flat from 1999-2007 but DECREASED in 2008. Avgas sales have decreased steadily since 1999. Jet fuel sales have decreased since 2000 and are near 1997 consumption.

No doom and gloom. But too many people are still wearing their Kit Darby issued rose colored spectacles.
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Sure there have been spikes in student starts, but the trend has been a slow steady decline as a percentage of the US population. More passengers to be flown, and fewer people to fly them. Eventually we will see a end of the glut of "I'll fly your jet for peanuts" pilots.

Also, don't overlook the large percentage of CPLs and ATPs who have either partially or completely left the industry. They still show up on those statistics, despite the fact that they have no intention of flying full time. I have a good friend who was furloghed from PSA. He is now an controller, and does a little contract flying on the side.
 
NJA_Capt said:
No doom and gloom. But too many people are still wearing their Kit Darby issued rose colored spectacles.
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:yup: Kit Darby glasses...I wish! Trust me, I'm not a shiny-jet-chasin' guy who's desperately hoping for better times. I'm perfectly willing to resign from the 121 job I'm on furlough from and fly pistons for a career if they'll pay me enough to do it.

That said, the data here is just incomplete. 8.3%...1.6%...all percentages that mean stuff and things, but does anyone have any numbers to show how many of those ATPs will want to even fly for the airlines? Does the 1.6% apply to all airlines, or just the ones listed below? Majors? Nationals/LCCs? 121 Supplemental? These numbers don't really mean anything. There are far too many variables we don't have data for.

My personal opinion is that there won't be a true pilot shortage, merely a shortage of people who'll sign up to fly jets for crappy wages.
 
Main reason CFI's can't make a living:

60,000 student pilot certificates issued each year divided among the 90,000 CFI's that are on the books. That means we have 1.5 CFI's for each and every student. We already have enough CFI's for 540,000 students. Getting a CFI is one of the biggest smokes in this industry today. Yet we all seem to fall for it and no one is calling foul here.

Main reason new pilots can't make a living:

In the best case scenario less than 1000 pilots a year will retire over the next five years which means those jobs will be divided up between 60,000 new student pilots each year.

Joe
 
I don't think "student starts" are a very good metric for determining anything. If you asked every CFI if they ever had a student that didn't finish, I'd wager you get a near 100% "yes." And it's likely more than 1. I CFIed for under a year, and I had 3 guys start but never even get their private. To me, it's a useless statistic unless you're an ad guy for AOPA or Flying magazine trying to sell advertising.

If it did mean anything, flight schools that were once functioning just fine wouldn't be so dependant on foreign training contracts to survive. I'm amazed my old school is still kicking in the current economic/hiring environment.
 
dasleben said:
My personal opinion is that there won't be a true pilot shortage, merely a shortage of people who'll sign up to fly jets for crappy wages.
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But but but, the regionals with crappy pay are only a stepping stone!!!!! Thats what Darby says!!!:(
 
JOEFRIDAY2 said:
Main reason CFI's can't make a living:

60,000 student pilot certificates issued each year divided among the 90,000 CFI's that are on the books.
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The vast majority of CFI's are not actively instructing. Merely keeping their certificate current in case they ever want to give their buddy a BFR.
 
USMCmech said:
The vast majority of CFI's are not actively instructing. Merely keeping their certificate current in case they ever want to give their buddy a BFR.
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You got that right and that's what makes it even worse! Many of these folks know there is no money being a CFI so they don't even bother trying or gave up long ago.

Another Friday Fact:

Almost 2/3rd of the students that get their student pilot certificate NEVER get their pilots license. There is a 64% drop out rate in this industry from student to private.

A student pilot certificate is not even required until a student solos.

The 64% drop out rate does not include those that never get their student pilot certificate.

Joe
 
USMCmech said:
That's the key factor why I ignore the "doom and gloom" crowd here.

Student pilot starts have been trending down for the last 30 years, while the total flying demand has been rising.

EVENTUALLY the majors will FINALLY exaust their furlough lists and will have to start hiring. While they will always have plenty of applicants at United and American, the other areas of the industry will see rapid movement.
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LOL doom and gloom? You certainly won't find that at JC.

You say student certificates, or commercial certificates have been sharply trending down the last 30 years(more like last 10) like it's a good thing. There is a reason for that, the erosion of the piloting profession. There are thousands and thousands of furloughed as well as current CAs that will be able to absorb retirements at least when age 65 hits in 2012, probably well after that. I don't think we will see any significant movement for a long time. But even then unless you are not waiting in line now, all you'll get is entry level flying jobs and be stuck there.
 
dasleben said:
or.

My personal opinion is that there won't be a true pilot shortage, merely a shortage of people who'll sign up to fly jets for crappy wages.
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Yea that's why the 1500 rule has to pass so that the airlines won't be able to fill their quotas by lowering mins.
 
Socal321 said:
LOL doom and gloom? You certainly won't find that at JC.

....... I don't think we will see any significant movement for a long time. But even then unless you are not waiting in line now, all you'll get is entry level flying jobs and be stuck there.
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I would call that doom and gloom.

I heard the same song back in 02, and I understand that the situation in 91 and 92 was almost as bad. Guess what, each of those downturns were followed by hiring booms just as this one will.

Also, the entire paridigm is changing. In 01 When I started United was the ultimate dream job, UPS and FedEx were where second tier jobs, and Southwest was "lowering the bar" with their below average wages.

Now, the regionals are the new B scale and fewer pilots are willing to kill themselves to work for a Major pax airline. United trashed their pension and furloghed a buch of their pilots, SWA has the best pay in the industry, and people are willing to walk over broken glass to work for UPS.

I have no idea what it will look like 10 years form now.
 
Two things will create an additional need for pilots:

1. Work rule changes. If the work rules change to eliminate the airlines from controlling your life 18 hours a day to a more reasonable 12 hours a day that could increase the need for commercial pilots and flight attendants by 33%. The fatigue issue is behind the work rule changes.

2. The 800-1500 rule. This rule, if enacted by Congress, will cause a hiring problem for the industry in 2012-2013 as the requirements for entry are raised.

It's going to be very difficult to fill F/O jobs at the regionals after 2012-2013 if this rule is enacted. At that point many of the routes will have to be shifted back to the majors or there will not be planes flying those routes.

That will then cause a higher demand for pilots at the majors.

I see no planning, by any airline, for these changes at this time. I'm told they will wait until planes aren't flying before they will react. I guess time will tell.

Joe
 
wow, lot of good posts here. What are the percentages of regional pilots to major carries? It looks to me that the majors carry many more pilots than the regionals? I just did a quick overview of the airline pilot central.com website.

I have totaled the LEGACY carries and it comes out to about 42,500 pilots. It seems the regionals have significantly less total pilots. American and Delta themselves come out to about 11,000 and 12,000 of these 42,500. Doesnt this bode well when airlines start to pick up? Maybe someone else can total up the "regional" carries so we can break down a percetange? Some of the other carries lumped into the "major-national" category seem like non-regional carriers.

I'm am seriously contemplating getting out of this business. I love to fly but im 34 years old and need to make a real living before im 50. I'm looking into teaching or going back to government, if I can land a job. It simply hasn't been worth it. I may be trapped here for a while as the economy is so terrible.

TOS
 
USMCmech said:
The vast majority of CFI's are not actively instructing. Merely keeping their certificate current in case they ever want to give their buddy a BFR.
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I think that's illegal in several states. Texas is probably one of them. California, probably not.
 
tiredofshoveling said:
wow, lot of good posts here. What are the percentages of regional pilots to major carries? It looks to me that the majors carry many more pilots than the regionals? I just did a quick overview of the airline pilot central.com website.

I have totaled the LEGACY carries and it comes out to about 42,500 pilots. It seems the regionals have significantly less total pilots. American and Delta themselves come out to about 11,000 and 12,000 of these 42,500. Doesnt this bode well when airlines start to pick up? Maybe someone else can total up the "regional" carries so we can break down a percetange? Some of the other carries lumped into the "major-national" category seem like non-regional carriers.

I'm am seriously contemplating getting out of this business. I love to fly but im 34 years old and need to make a real living before im 50. I'm looking into teaching or going back to government, if I can land a job. It simply hasn't been worth it. I may be trapped here for a while as the economy is so terrible.

TOS
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Did you include the LCCs? Also what about the furloughed? They would have to go back before there is movement.

Regionals: 22,488 total. 1725 furloughed

I have no idea how many pilots are hired a year under slow economies but if it's a couple of hundred, then it's going to take a while to get movement.
 
tiredofshoveling said:
wow, lot of good posts here. What are the percentages of regional pilots to major carries? It looks to me that the majors carry many more pilots than the regionals? I just did a quick overview of the airline pilot central.com website.

I have totaled the LEGACY carries and it comes out to about 42,500 pilots. It seems the regionals have significantly less total pilots. American and Delta themselves come out to about 11,000 and 12,000 of these 42,500. Doesnt this bode well when airlines start to pick up? Maybe someone else can total up the "regional" carries so we can break down a percetange? Some of the other carries lumped into the "major-national" category seem like non-regional carriers.

I'm am seriously contemplating getting out of this business. I love to fly but im 34 years old and need to make a real living before im 50. I'm looking into teaching or going back to government, if I can land a job. It simply hasn't been worth it. I may be trapped here for a while as the economy is so terrible.

TOS
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I would pretty much categorize anyone that doesn't have "Connection" or "Express" on the side a "major" for the terms of this discussion. Counting the majors and LCCs (including Frontier in this count but not Midwest), there are 50,308 ACTIVE jobs at the major level right now. This does NOT count people furloughed. At the regionals, the number is 20,435, also excluding furloughs. This is just the airlines. I left out FedEx and UPS.

Now, will the majors be able to hold on to those jobs? Sure, it's a near 30K job lead, but what's causing it? Most majors have contractual issues that force them to staff at higher levels than regionals. If they get concessions on that in exchange for other work rules, some of those jobs will go away. If the outsourcing continues (and with the C-series on the horizon along with the E170/190s already on the market, it's possible), more jobs will switch from the majors to the regionals. There's also the possibility that some majors may even cease to exist in the future. Sun Country and United are both included in the above numbers.
 
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