So what if I end up upside down? Still plenty of time to get out.
Honest question, have you, or anyone here (besides the military guys!) ever tried to get out of an aircraft or vehicle that was in water and submerging? I always used to think it wasn't as hard as it sounded. After going through underwater egress training, I'd take dry land any day.
I did my training in a controlled environment with safety divers, and even then, panic sets in quickly if you're not trained. Being trapped inside an object that's going under without control, and then upsidedown is simply terrifying. It's not as easy as just hopping out of the plane unless you have a Sully landing, and even then you need to hope that no major damage occured that's allowing water into the aircraft.
My concern with the water isn't even flipping over, it's the getting out of the aircraft. There's a couple reasons I would avoid water, first would be; what if I hit the water hard enough that I end up getting knocked unconscious? Now I'm wet, and trapped in a sinking plane. Dead. Second, what if I hit the water, become injured and can't get out while the aircraft is sinking? Again, dead. I have a hard enough time getting out of a 150/172/182 on dry land, forget what it would be like if I was underwater.
I would only go for water if it was very shallow and next to the shore, otherwise if I was in a light single, I'd aim for the shortest trees I could find (which may not be possible depending on time), and slow it down as much as possible, or even stall it, right into the tops. The risk's are obviously very high for whatever you choose, land or water. However I'd rather be alive and injured on dry land, than alive and injured and now fighting a second survival situation in cold water.
Hell if I made it onto the land successfully and nobody knew I was there, I'd do my best to try and sever one of the power lines, or damage a part of it, I'm sure that would get someone to my location quick!