A friend who is a LTA DPE once told me that you would be surprised how soft the tops of the trees are when you hit them. Fortunately, I've never had the misfortune to experience that for myself or find how far the fall is either.
I do know a fellow who made the mistake of getting too low crossing a ridge and ended up riding a downdraft into the trees. He got all the way to the ground without a scratch and engine was still running when he got there. I know another fellow who went into the ocean in a fixed gear airplane that flipped upside down. His biggest problem was getting out of his harness while sinking upside down. In both cases they came out with nothing worse than a bad scare. So, all things are possible with luck.
The recent Cessna Cardinal crash through the roof of an apartment building is just one more example of good luck.
Just my opinion, I'd go for the water. The lesson I learned from going through water survival training for what I would do now that I would not have done before is I would keep my shoes on. They weigh next to nothing in the water and they make a big difference when you get to the edge of the water.