nocturnalaviator
Family Man
Yeah, maybe as a meteorologist I shouldn't really care...but really?
METAR KSFO 031055Z VRB02KT 7SM MIFG SKC 15/14 A3012 RMK SLP993 SNINCR 1/10
Yeah, maybe as a meteorologist I shouldn't really care...but really?
METAR KSFO 031055Z VRB02KT 7SM MIFG SKC 15/14 A3012 RMK SLP993 SNINCR 1/10
35kts may be warning criteria. If its in the TAF, the warning for high winds also needs to be out to maintain horizontal consistency and per the AFMAN. Makes sense really, forecasting warning criteria the warning has to be out.
It is a numbers game though Mike. Plus it's a forecast hedge. Forecast 20G30 and see how the winds progress, amend to add 25G35 and issue the warning with the hope you get your desired lead time (usually an hour) and your timing error isn't off too much either, otherwise you're taking even a larger hit on the stats side.
But yup - you have it right.
Regretably, the Air Force doesn't emphasize a similar TAF forecasting philosophy as the NWS. For good reason most of the time, but yes - most Air Force (and military forecasters) do tend to over forecast. Mission is significantly different, which yields a more conservative forecast approach.
The training, weather wise - is excellent. However, the TAF forecast process philosophy is significantly flawed in my opinion.
At the local level, the MEF (mission execution forecasts) and 5-Day forecasts are developed. The local weather staff provide mission specific weather input to the respective needs of the base / unit commanders.