Ridiculous FAA written METAR examples...
- Thread starter surreal1221
- Start date
35kts may be warning criteria. If its in the TAF, the warning for high winds also needs to be out to maintain horizontal consistency and per the AFMAN. Makes sense really, forecasting warning criteria the warning has to be out.
It is a numbers game though Mike. Plus it's a forecast hedge. Forecast 20G30 and see how the winds progress, amend to add 25G35 and issue the warning with the hope you get your desired lead time (usually an hour) and your timing error isn't off too much either, otherwise you're taking even a larger hit on the stats side.
But yup - you have it right.
Kind of what I figured. Still, Im not like some pilots I know who constanty complain if a forecast isn't exactly as stated.......they seem to forget or even not know that forecasting is an educated guess, unlike an observation. They'll gripe like hell when that happens, yet at the same time give no credit for when a forecast is spot-on.
surreal1221
Well-Known Member
Of course this specific METAR example was on my actual test...lol
hook_dupin
Well-Known Member
It's my understanding that the TAFs, as well as other forecasting products, has been outsourced at most AF bases. For example, the TAF for Eglin AFB, FL is produced at Barksdale AFB, LA. Kinda throws out that idea of 5-7 years of local forecasting experience to be effective idea that came up earlier in the thread.
surreal1221
Well-Known Member
Outsourced is the incorrect word. The TAF is indeed developed and sent out from Barksdale, but it is coming from a regionalized Air Force weather center (or hub).
AFW has a number of these units.
Forecast experience can be a red-herring arguement. The 3 and 5 level forecasters at the Hubs are skilled and know what they're doing, otherwise they wouldn't have made it out of the schoolhouse. However, it is the difference in forecast and TAF philosophy that exists between Air Force and NWS TAF writers.
At the local level, the MEF (mission execution forecasts) and 5-Day forecasts are developed. The local weather staff provide mission specific weather input to the respective needs of the base / unit commanders.
AFW has a number of these units.
Forecast experience can be a red-herring arguement. The 3 and 5 level forecasters at the Hubs are skilled and know what they're doing, otherwise they wouldn't have made it out of the schoolhouse. However, it is the difference in forecast and TAF philosophy that exists between Air Force and NWS TAF writers.
At the local level, the MEF (mission execution forecasts) and 5-Day forecasts are developed. The local weather staff provide mission specific weather input to the respective needs of the base / unit commanders.
When you say local-level personnel, do you mean the baseops WX people in the shop there? For example, at DMA there's the 25th OWS, which I assume is the regional? But there's also people at baseops in a WX shop there who belong to the OG's OSS unit. Do the baseops people do their own forecasts, or do they just get products from down the street at the OWS unit?
surreal1221
Well-Known Member
Correct, the 25 OWS is the "Hub" or whatever AFW is calling them these days.
Base-ops is your local weather flight, which is under the OSS.
The base-ops folks do their own MEF forecasts, which are specifically tailored to the missions and elements to be used. The TAF is, as we all know, a planning forecast that address specific categories that must be forecasted (think non-precision/precision approach minimums).
Base-ops is your local weather flight, which is under the OSS.
The base-ops folks do their own MEF forecasts, which are specifically tailored to the missions and elements to be used. The TAF is, as we all know, a planning forecast that address specific categories that must be forecasted (think non-precision/precision approach minimums).
