Maybe not ... not just yet
B767Driver said:
FlyI gone. XJT downsizing. CMR giving back airplanes. Mesaba getting skinnier. Are we finding out that the RJ economics are failing?
While I agree that the day of the 50-seater is about to end, let's look at your examples:
FlyI: Perhaps CR7s or CR9s would have been a better option for them. ACA / FlyI management knew that they'd have too many CR2s to start the dance, and dumping many of them was part of the original plan. However, the fare slashing done by jetBlue and United, the enormous jump in the cost of fuel, and a US Airways that wouldn't die are what brought that dream to an end. Even with A319s running all their routes, they still would have failed.
XJT: downsizing because CAL is courting someone new with lower costs. Anyone with a brain knew that as soon as the XJT folks got a great contract, big daddy CAL would look for a replacement. Perhaps a few of those ERJs will go away, but my guess is that they'll still be here, just operated by someone else.
CMR: getting the boot because they were the one pilot group to make great progress, and now they cost "too much" for senior DAL management. So, while CMR parks aircraft, Freedom and Shuttle America bring out more to replace them.
Mesaba: again, a senior management group wanting to get on the "new contractor lowers costs" bandwagon. Mesaba is a senior group, with great work rules, great payrates, etc. How can an Avro NOT make money? It's not much smaller than a baby -9, and the personnel costs are lower. But, if you find a new company with lower HR costs, you can make more money for the top brass.
So, to that extent, the RJs aren't going away. They're just being shifted amongst operators. Keep in mind though that the passengers are tired of walking in rain / sleet / snow / slush / JetA / APU and engine exhaust to get to their airplane. The idea of no middle seat is great, until you sit in the window or aisle seat that really isn't very comfortable. Four hours on an E145 or CR7? Yeup, that's insanity, and passengers WILL look for a mainline aircraft.
RJ economics "fail" when senior management sniffs out a carrier with lower operating costs. Do they really fail at creating a profit? Nope, not when a whopping $6.00 per ticket pays for the entire crew (IMHO).
greaper007 said:
So what's the most profitable plane for domestic flights? I would guess a 737 or A320.
There is not answer to that. What city pair? What kind of loads? What time of day? How much cargo is available to haul on that route? How much US Mail is available on that route?
CASM is a management tool. Sure, the 757 / 737 / A3XX has a lower CASM than a CRJ200 or E145. But what happens if you only have 45 passengers on a regular basis? Now the 757 is a massive money loser and the 50-seater is the optimal choice.