Regional Losses

B767Driver

B767Driver

New Member
FlyI gone. XJT downsizing. CMR giving back airplanes. Mesaba getting skinnier. Are we finding out that the RJ economics are failing? High CASM, high fuel, crowded hubs. But maybe more importantly...diluted hub traffic.

I heard an executive say that the RJs are killing revenues. Instead of feeding hubs...other brands are stealing passengers. For example...Charleston, SC used to be Delta only...the only game in town. Had to go thru ATL. This city was gold for DAL. Now every brand flies an RJ into CHS and makes it a money loser for everyone.

The objective was that the RJ would feed the hubs more frequently and efficiently. The miscalculation was that every brand would "sneak" over and cherry pick passengers that should have only gone thru one brand's hub.

So now everyone wants to dump the RJ feed and reclaim the "dedicated" brand hubs...ie restoring a rational revenue base from such cities.

Maybe one reason we're seeing some loss of flying.
 
It had to happen, and I've seen TonyW say it the most here (though obviously he's not the only one).

Props to Tony.
 
Too much competition is killing the RJ's. But hay......thats economics. The industry is starting to shift to adjust.
 
KLB said:
Too much competition is killing the RJ's. But hay......thats economics. The industry is starting to shift to adjust.
Click to expand...

Shift as in good or as in bad?
 
It's too early to tell. For me (the 750hr flight instructor), its looking a little scary. Now I am going to be competing with more experienced regional guys for jobs. I could get to 1200-2000 hrs more while instructing. Heck, I will probably be at 1200 by June at the latest, but Total Time will always equal less than Turbine Time on a resume'.

I don't even know if that is good or bad. It all depends on how much I will be getting paid when I get that first 135/121 gig. To go even deeper.... What if I do up and get hired at 800-1000hrs total time. I could be furloughed at the first sign of trouble and be back instructing for the same wages that I left at. It's all a gamble right now.
 
It's good. If the flying goes back to the mainline it means that quick upgrades at the regionals will go away, but it'll also mean that there is actually somewhere to go in a few years.
 
I think the regionals enjoyed a brief ray of sunshine offering financial relief to struggling mainlines in the short- medium- length segment, particularly while we were all getting used to $60/brl oil. The tide is shifting however, and the majors are not seeing the same cost effectiveness sending five 50 seat RJs between hubs as they would sending three 737's. I knew the end was near when I did the 4 hour YYZ-IAH leg in a 145XR. I thought "This is ridiculous. This leg is a bit long even for a 73. What the hell?"

So, things are slowing down. Or shifting. Or whatever. Who knows?
<CapnJim shakes his Magic 8-Ball, writes another post>
 
FOUR hours on a ERJ? I wouldn't spend four hours on a MD-88. perhaps an MD-90, but HOLY COW!
 
Doug,


I flew on an EMB-170 from Detroit to Salt Lake and back. Don't you guys cover that on the -88? Seemed crazy that we were on an "RJ" for what was an obvious mainline flight.
 
nah, that's actually a new route I think, or it as a 737-300 or something. MD-88's get 'very interesting' performance-wise in/out of SLC.

I flew an MD-88 on a hot summer day from SLC to RNO, and I rememer thinking, as we approached V1, "Aye, what was the maximum tire speed again? We've got to be close..."
 
Doug Taylor said:
FOUR hours on a ERJ? I wouldn't spend four hours on a MD-88. perhaps an MD-90, but HOLY COW!
Click to expand...
My sentiments exactly. A ventral tank and winglets sure do make for uncomfortable pax.
A standing joke around the watercooler is that the only reason ExpressJet isn't picking up CAL's segments from EWR to LGW is that the FAA won't approve our STC for the pressed-paper drop tanks.

So where does the 50 seat jet fit into the airline world now? Ya got me.
 
Same reason why Comair isn't flying JFK to LGW! Couldn't get the CRJ TSO'd to strap two CRJ's together with mil-surplus drop tanks.
 
How it used to be

When I was workin' my way up, I had 2000 total and 100 multi to get a 135 freight job. That was part of paying your dues. I got no problem if it goes back to that.
 
DE727UPS said:
When I was workin' my way up, I had 2000 total and 100 multi to get a 135 freight job. That was part of paying your dues. I got no problem if it goes back to that.
Click to expand...

I was talking to my friend about this yesterday. I think it's a notion of your generation of pilots that some "dues" must be paid. For example, I'm friends with two sons of United pilots.

1 was hired in 1966 with solely a private pilot's license
1 was hired ~1988ish after "paying his dues"

Not really disagreeing with anything you say, just a casual observation that I found interesting.
 
B767Driver said:
FlyI gone. XJT downsizing. CMR giving back airplanes. Mesaba getting skinnier. Are we finding out that the RJ economics are failing? High CASM, high fuel, crowded hubs. But maybe more importantly...diluted hub traffic.

I heard an executive say that the RJs are killing revenues. Instead of feeding hubs...other brands are stealing passengers. For example...Charleston, SC used to be Delta only...the only game in town. Had to go thru ATL. This city was gold for DAL. Now every brand flies an RJ into CHS and makes it a money loser for everyone.

The objective was that the RJ would feed the hubs more frequently and efficiently. The miscalculation was that every brand would "sneak" over and cherry pick passengers that should have only gone thru one brand's hub.

So now everyone wants to dump the RJ feed and reclaim the "dedicated" brand hubs...ie restoring a rational revenue base from such cities.

Maybe one reason we're seeing some loss of flying.
Click to expand...

If or most likely when the number of hubs needing all this feed are reduced the RJs will slip into history. They were a symptom of too many hubs. When we get to a more sustainable number of hubs it will be hundred seaters and larger doing most of the feed again.

That would produce a dramatic decrease in CASM.
 
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