PSA CRJ-700 AA midair collision

From today’s NTSB update:

NTSB has also been provided updated information that shows the air traffic control tower display at DCA is fed by the Potomac TRACON. The TRACON fuses information from multiple radar sensors and ADS-B data, providing the best quality flight track data to air traffic control. This data showed the Black Hawk was at 300 feet on the air traffic control display at the time of the collision. This data is rounded to the nearest 100 feet.


The FDR and CVR data from the Blackhawk didn’t have timestamps - so they’re having to manually timestamp the Blackhawk data to get all of the events to line up with the ATC radar timeline and CRJ data timeline.

So in short, while they have Blackhawk data, the Blackhawk data is still not yet able to be pieced together with what they have from other sources. They dont anticipate being able to do this until after they recover the Blackhawk wreckage later this week,
 
What percentage of graduating UPT classes are FAIPs?

How many CFIs get their ticket shortly after getting their commercial?

550 of my 1800 part 121 PIC hrs are as a line check pilot. I have taken FOs with 0 jet time in and out of DCA with paying passengers on board, in the same tail number that’s now being taken out of the water.

All this being said, I was not unique or special. What arbitrary number do we place on this? Folks with less than 200 hrs are PIC in single seat fighters.

I guess I’m just not understanding the point/correlation you’re trying to make.
Turning right back around and teaching what you just learned is the civilian norm. The military has the ability to weed out people based on aptitude instead of based on pocketbook. I don't see anything at all wrong with the military also having relatively low time instructors.

Separately, I'm quite curious if there's a standard for the military for when to use radar altimeter/baro altimeter, and if all low-altitude baro ops are QNH or if any QFE operations happen. I have (literally) just enough time upside down to be extremely dangerous and never feel quite right using QFE in the box.
 

That’s honestly the most plausible representation of what happened that I’ve seen.

I could see where the aircraft on approach to Rwy 1 looked closer than the once circling to 33. The CRJ could have been mistaken for a more distant aircraft going to Andrew’s or off in distance.

Depth perception is reduced at night. Add in city lights and it’s a recipe for disaster.
 
Separately, I'm quite curious if there's a standard for the military for when to use radar altimeter/baro altimeter, and if all low-altitude baro ops are QNH or if any QFE operations happen. I have (literally) just enough time upside down to be extremely dangerous and never feel quite right using QFE in the box.

RADALT is used mostly for low level tactical flying and things like hover work and such. It wouldn’t be used here on a navigational leg, though the difference between MSL and AGL in this case is nearly nothing.
 
I think there's a lot we can learn from the other side, if we can break down the preconceptions that exist on each. That said,
I think you are underestimating how difficult that is for a lot of people.
Right, but the question is why. That 'why' is the essence of understanding what I'm saying. Do you think that some humans are just fundamentally "not cut out for it" from birth?

Humans are remarkably adaptable.

I have a theory of mental plasticity that goes something like this:
Observation A> Humans need a model of reality to function. They can't generally work on "raw data." Examples provided upon request, but you can probably synthesize them. Think of driving-if you try to reduce it to analysis of steering wheel angles, pedal pressures in nm, closure angles, traction percentage etc, much like a computer might, you wouldn't be able to get to the grocery store. (Even automated vehicles need models)
Observation B> Humans (like many species) are born receptive to information about the world around them. As they grow, they have to continually adjust their model of reality to fit available data. That is computationally expensive, and it takes work. Adapting your model leaves you vulnerable, because you haven't compiled the parameters into instant action/reactions. ("muscle memory"). It's slower and less efficient. An elite hockey player stays in a flow state of read/react, based on how they train. Their cognition is operating nearly independently from their body.

As humans become more efficient at things, they start to build that muscle memory, including cognitive process. That's "the model." Once we achieve a state where we're just responding to everything by read/react, we start locking down the model, because it's proven to work for us. We've determined this to be an accurate and efficient way to exist in our current environment. We do the things we do, we understand the things that come in. The world "makes sense."

In short:
When humans are young, they change their model to fit available data.

As humans grow, they reach a point where they start altering the incoming data to fit their model.

Once humans have a model that adequately explains the world around them, and allows them to operate efficiently therein, that model becomes almost immutable, and they question anything that doesn't fit it. To challenge that model is to challenge their existence, and what has become their fundamental self.

When people say "the brain is still growing until 13/16/18/20/24/25/28", it's actually just a reductive conflation of correlation and causation, and I believe the above demonstrates some of the causative factors. The brain is plastic as long as you're expanding it to new ideas. As soon as you lock that model down and determine that no, X is Y, and that's just common sense, you begin losing the ability to grow. It takes you less time and energy to think, but you start to solidify those pathways.

The muscles atrophy as comfort ("common sense") grows.

The problem with common sense is, as the saying goes, that it's not common. But people fundamentally misunderstand that statement--it doesn't mean "it's not common" as in "most people don't have it," it means "it's not common" as in "it's not shared between people."

When you teach people something that doesn't rely on that "common sense," like flying, you have to figure out where they are on the adaptivity scale, and sometimes you have to break into the model. And they have to voluntarily open that model for you, or they'll just keep bouncing off the new concepts and ideas. That doesn't mean everyone will actually be able/willing to open that model, and most instructors won't go through the effort to do so because they are (understandably) not devoted solely to that student's learning process. They have better things to do than spend many hours psychoanalyzing their students, and the students won't want to pay for that anyway. This is not an ideal world, and some compromises have to be made.

And there are some people who have developed maladaptive responses to external pressures, and at times those maladaptive responses can be highly inappropriate in aviation. (Atlas, Houston) Does that mean the individual can't be a pilot? Not necessarily, but the foundational issues must be addressed and can't be ignored. If those foundational issues are uncorrectable, then, and only then, have you found a candidate that isn't suited to the profession. CA might have been one of those due to extreme impulsivity, but more likely the instructors along the way passed the buck by just meeting the minimum standard at the exact right time to "cooperate and graduate."

Anyway, if anyone has read this far, thanks for giving up half your day to read my inane ramblings.

TL;DR: Humans are remarkably adaptable and capable of learning, in my observation, but once they lock in their model of reality as "truth," it becomes impossible to natively teach new concepts. They can assimilate new concepts only by adapting them to fit their model, rather than adapting their model to fit the concepts.

Exactly none of which is relevant ot the titular accident, but is at least tangentally relevant to the discussion at hand.
 
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This one is somewhat useful. From this angle the pilots may have thought they were following the lowest white circle, and the JIA and AAL (the two overlapping circles could have blended into one. However this sight-picture would have only lasted a few seconds. I was hoping this article would have an animation.
 
I have a subscription, and they let me share a limited number of articles. See if this works for you:

If it's accurate, it's the best recreation I've seen. Showing what the Blackhawk pilots would have seen from 200 vs 300 feet is interesting. Showing what they would have seen from night vision goggles, and how they would have seen the 2 airplanes in the area, is helpful. You really can't tell the aircraft involved in the accident from the other one that was landing, at least not to my untrained eye.
View attachment 81969

This one is somewhat useful. From this angle the pilots may have thought they were following the lowest white circle, and the JIA and AAL (the two overlapping circles could have blended into one. However this sight-picture would have only lasted a few seconds. I was hoping this article would have an animation.
Could NVGs have made this more difficult?
 
I have used ground NVGs but I cannot speak to that.
The helo guys at the medevac job let me use theirs a few times. Based on that extremely limited experience, I would say emphatically yes, could make discerning distance of a light-source more difficult. But I'm sure someone who has a lot more experience will be along shortly.
 
If it's accurate, it's the best recreation I've seen. Showing what the Blackhawk pilots would have seen from 200 vs 300 feet is interesting. Showing what they would have seen from night vision goggles, and how they would have seen the 2 airplanes in the area, is helpful. You really can't tell the aircraft involved in the accident from the other one that was landing, at least not to my untrained eye.

Could NVGs have made this more difficult?

Yes, especially dependent on which version of the AN/AVS-6 they are using at the time.

The white phosphate goggles (white intensity instead of green) are great for operations in extremely low contrast compared to the traditional greens, but in areas with crazy high levels of terrestrial lighting (ie exactly where they were) the whites kind of wash out in big blobs of noise, so detail is actually harder to see.

Particularly something like a landing light would effectively be like looking into the sun and make it nearly impossible to effectively judge distance. Technique for measuring distance and space with goggles is largely to use side parallax cues of known objects of reference. Facing an object straight or near straight on that isn’t moving in the focal plane of reference means you are closing with the object, but you have no basis for distance comparison because light intensity drives a lot of how big an object appears.


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Yes, especially dependent on which version of the AN/AVS-6 they are using at the time.

The white phosphate goggles (white intensity instead of green) are great for operations in extremely low contrast compared to the traditional greens, but in areas with crazy high levels of terrestrial lighting (ie exactly where they were) the whites kind of wash out in big blobs of noise, so detail is actually harder to see.

Particularly something like a landing light would effectively be like looking into the sun and make it nearly impossible to effectively judge distance. Technique for measuring distance and space with goggles is largely to use side parallax cues of known objects of reference. Facing an object straight or near straight on that isn’t moving in the focal plane of reference means you are closing with the object, but you have no basis for distance comparison because light intensity drives a lot of how big an object appears.


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The NVGs I used as an artillery grunt were two eyepieces into one primary and provided zero depth perception, I only used them if I were on guard duty or if I were leading a convoy on a very dark night. I am glad aviators use something binocular at least. Our medivac copters at a past duty would ask us to turn the field lights off so they could use NVGs into the airport occasionally but it was rare. even with our lights off, our footprint wasn't very large and there were tons of lights all around.
 
The NVGs I used as an artillery grunt were two eyepieces into one primary and provided zero depth perception, I only used them if I were on guard duty or if I were leading a convoy on a very dark night. I am glad aviators use something binocular at least. Our medivac copters at a past duty would ask us to turn the field lights off so they could use NVGs into the airport occasionally but it was rare. even with our lights off, our footprint wasn't very large and there were tons of lights all around.

The aviation NVGs are miles better than the 7s or 10s you see guys running around on the ground with.

I put a 10 on for the first time in years to do drivers training and couldn’t believe how crappy they were. So the aviation goggles are better, but still a long way from perfect.


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