probability of H.R. 3371 going through...

[surreal1221]

I've flown with some FOs that have done the same. They don't belong in the right seat of a jet. Sure, they passed their checkrides same as everyone else. With the right examiner, I can get ANYONE to pass their checkride on the first shot. The examiner has a canned exam, so I can just go up with the student and do the exam over and over until they get it perfect. Examiner even has the same oral every time for each different rating, so that's covered, too. Initial airline training is slightly different since there are more hoops, however reality has shown me that even basket cases that don't belong in the cockpit can get through that, too.

After these guys have been here a year, they're BETTER, but I still flew with one guy that was yanked immediately during a standards check after he'd been here for over a year. The fact that I was flat out telling him how to fly the plane and kept us from getting violated was probably a tip off to the check airman sitting on the jump seat.

Then how do we get rid of the misfits?

 

[kellwolf]

What the heck was he doing?

Wasn't thinking ahead of the airplane, was doing 220 kts on an 8 mile final, was about 1000 ft high, and was gonna have to be on the ball a LOT more than he was to be stabilized by 1000 AGL on an approach in IMC. Book says if you're not stabilized by 1000 ft on an instrument approach, it's a go around. With a check airman on the seat, I'm following the book. The REAL kicker was when approach said "Fly heading 350 cleared for the ILS 36R approach." He initially flew 350, then he started spinning the heading knob to "shallow the intercept angle." Fine on a visual approach, but 1) it was only a 10 degree intercept (or 8 if you wanna get technical) and 2) he was assigned a heading. I wound up calling runway in sight at about 1100 AGL, otherwise it woulda been a go around. He finally got it stable and in the landing config at about 700 AGL.

Then how do we get rid of the misfits?

For once, I actually like what 9E's plan is. Guys that have multiple busts, low time or other "red flags," get extra training and extra checking events. If you're able to hit the targets like you should, it's business as usual.

 

[B767]

For once, I actually like what 9E's plan is. Guys that have multiple busts, low time or other "red flags," get extra training and extra checking events. If you're able to hit the targets like you should, it's business as usual.

I have no idea how long IOE is, but what about lengthening IOE? Think that would help as well?

 

[CoffeeIcePapers]

Higher minimums ("competitive" minimums) didn't raise wages in the past, it wont raise wages in the future.

Because they were allowed to drop the minimums instead. The "minimums" posted now are just for show, since no one is hiring.

 

[SpiceWeasel]

was doing 220 kts on an 8 mile final

That's abnormal? Boy we must be cowboys in the -900 :rotfl:

Seriously though, abnormal was 160 KIAS 20 miles out because we had Tsunami in front of us. :crazy:

 

[ChasenSFO]

After these guys have been here a year, they're BETTER, but I still flew with one guy that was yanked immediately during a standards check after he'd been here for over a year. The fact that I was flat out telling him how to fly the plane and kept us from getting violated was probably a tip off to the check airman sitting on the jump seat.

It was my understanding those things aren't "Pass or Fail" but rather just an evaluation to see how you're doing and where you can get better. Was I misinformed? One crappy approach and they can leave you on the street?

 

[seaav8tor]

The CFIs will instruct the group of students getting the now $100,000 in SLM loans to learn to fly, the Regionals will hire more DE captains (they'll have to be able to keep functioning) and then hire all of the guys who happen to be at about 1500TT at the time. I am not sure how many guys are going to retire once age 65 makes them ineligible (i'm sure someone has the stat) but its not going to create a shortage that was anyworse than the last hiring frenzy. These things come in waves.


My limited perspective only really sees a trickle down theme as the possibility:

Geezers Retire
Majors Upgrade some FOs-Captains
Majors Hire New FOs
Regionals Upgrade new Captains
Regionals Hire New FOs & DE Captains
--Wages for FOs stay the same

Flight Schools see a shortage of CFIs with over 1500TT
-So they hire more guys straight out of CFI school and pay them better than every before (as was the case in the last pilot shortage)

Cargo Outfits see a shortage of guys over 1500TT
-So they start hiring guys to be VFR PICs at 500TT

Banner Tow, Pipeline Patrol, Traffic Watch and Skydiving operations are saturated with sub 300TT resumes, mins go up accordingly.

Places like ATPs offer "Guaranteed Job to 1500TT," PFT/PFJ becomes more prevalent as people want to hit 1500TT with more "experience".

Alaska mins stay roughly as they are now as insuring people under 1500TT is hard enough anyway.

The quantity of flight training students stays the same because of people touting the "great pilot shortage or 2012."

Since I started in 1976, I have observed the following:

-Individuals with a financial stake tout "Pilot Shortage" this includes 4 year schools, mills, media feeds from AIRCON and the ATA, etc.

-Along comes a new generation every few years that buys it hook line and sinker.

-The hiring mins expand and contract to fit the number of pilots needed. A shortage never materializes. 1,500 hours is not going to shift the balance because AIRCON and ATA will make a big push for MPL and an hour exemption for this "Special" training and MPL certificate which will be paid for by the pilot.

-Pay fluctuates up and down. Each down is bigger than each up so over time losses are never recovered. Best guess is look at the career earnings of someone retiring at the time you start. Now cut that number in half. That is what you will earn by the end of your 30 year career "IF" you make it.
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By the way, in 1976 my CFI was getting $ 10.00 per hour for dual given primary. To keep even with inflation, zero gain, the CFI would need to be paid $ 37.85 per hour today.

 

[EatSleepFly]

Cargo Outfits see a shortage of guys over 1500TT
-So they start hiring guys to be VFR PICs at 500TT

I very much doubt that. This already happened a few years ago, and nobody hired VFR PIC's. Okay, maybe a few in very good weather climates. I'm sure you know, 135 cargo is a cut-throat business with tiny profit margins. No company is going to hire a bunch of VFR-only PIC's at the risk of not being able to make service due to weather. Most companies with any nearby competition probably couldn't get away with more than one service failure from that before they lost the run.

 

[kellwolf]

It was my understanding those things aren't "Pass or Fail" but rather just an evaluation to see how you're doing and where you can get better. Was I misinformed? One crappy approach and they can leave you on the street?

Not the street, but back in the sim for sure. It wasn't just a crappy approach, it was a multitude of little things en route (getting out your iPhone to play games while a check airman is on the seat is generally not the BEST idea) then a SERIOUSLY unstable approach coupled with a disregard for an ATC instruction.

That's abnormal? Boy we must be cowboys in the -900

Rex, it was more the 1000 ft high AND the 220 kts fast. Not sure about the -900, but the -200 generally doesn't like to descend AND slow at the same time. At 220 kts, you can't even put in flaps 20 to help it slow. You can do 250 to a 5 mile final, but if you're 1000 ft high on the glideslope, good luck getting it stabilized per the company standards by 1000 agl.

 

[SpiceWeasel]

Rex, it was more the 1000 ft high AND the 220 kts fast. Not sure about the -900, but the -200 generally doesn't like to descend AND slow at the same time. At 220 kts, you can't even put in flaps 20 to help it slow. You can do 250 to a 5 mile final, but if you're 1000 ft high on the glideslope, good luck getting it stabilized per the company standards by 1000 agl.

I hear ya, man. It sure is different when we can start dirtying it up at 230 KIAS.

 

[juskl]

Good Point.... Seems the way things are going..... In the Phoenix area at least....

 

[MikeD]

I very much doubt that. This already happened a few years ago, and nobody hired VFR PIC's. Okay, maybe a few in very good weather climates. I'm sure you know, 135 cargo is a cut-throat business with tiny profit margins. No company is going to hire a bunch of VFR-only PIC's at the risk of not being able to make service due to weather. Most companies with any nearby competition probably couldn't get away with more than one service failure from that before they lost the run.

My first cargo company I worked for at Stellar Airpark in AZ hired a few VFR-only guys. They were generally assigned the PHX - YUM/NYL run, which was VFR darn near 363 days out of the year. Good, solid 4.0 a day to build 135 time in a 207 or PA-32-300. Get a practice approach at YUM to keep up the currency. They built time pretty quick. I would say out of our 20 pilots, 5 were VFR only, IIRC.