probability of H.R. 3371 going through...

Here's what happens ... bill gets passed and the airlines rush to hire a bunch of 250-hour guys before it goes into effect, immediately placing them on furlough so they'll have them at a later time if/when they need them. Just watch :)
 
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Murdoughnut said:
Here's what happens ... bill gets passed and the airlines rush to hire a bunch of 250-hour guys before it goes into effect, immediately placing them on furlough so they'll have them at a later time if/when they need them. Just watch :)
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I was thinking the same thing.

2. There are VERY VERY few americans that can afford flight training right now. Plus banks stopped lending to flight schools about a year ago. So no new pilots.

3. September, 2011, all the pilots that kept their jobs due to the age 65 rule will be forced into retirement. At this point the regionals will need new pilots, none of which will be willing to fly for $23K having an ATP and 1500 hours.

A lot is hinging on the verbage in the bill, but if it keeps the 1500/ATP thing it would have to raise starting pay along with ticket prices.
 
intern_mike said:
1.
I was thinking the same thing.

2. There are VERY VERY few americans that can afford flight training right now. Plus banks stopped lending to flight schools about a year ago. So no new pilots.

3. September, 2011, all the pilots that kept their jobs due to the age 65 rule will be forced into retirement. At this point the regionals will need new pilots, none of which will be willing to fly for $23K having an ATP and 1500 hours.

A lot is hinging on the verbage in the bill, but if it keeps the 1500/ATP thing it would have to raise starting pay along with ticket prices.
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I doubt it, guys will just flight instruct until 1500TT then get the ATP, and then go and work for beans. It will be a good thing for the industry in a lot of ways, and the qualities, or at least judgment of many of the FO candidates will certainly increase, that being said, I sincerely doubt that anything will change in regards to pay. Hold out, makes some money, fly freight, and then direct entry captain when those jobs open up again. That's the only way it seems to me to skip out on the $23,000 per year jobs.
 
ppragman said:
I doubt it, guys will just flight instruct until 1500TT then get the ATP, and then go and work for beans. It will be a good thing for the industry in a lot of ways, and the qualities, or at least judgment of many of the FO candidates will certainly increase, that being said, I sincerely doubt that anything will change in regards to pay. Hold out, makes some money, fly freight, and then direct entry captain when those jobs open up again. That's the only way it seems to me to skip out on the $23,000 per year jobs.
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Who will the regionals hire while they wait for these instructors to get 1500/ATP? Moreover, who will these CFIs instruct?
 
intern_mike said:
Who will the regionals hire while they wait for these instructors to get 1500/ATP? Moreover, who will these CFIs instruct?
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The CFIs will instruct the group of students getting the now $100,000 in SLM loans to learn to fly, the Regionals will hire more DE captains (they'll have to be able to keep functioning) and then hire all of the guys who happen to be at about 1500TT at the time. I am not sure how many guys are going to retire once age 65 makes them ineligible (i'm sure someone has the stat) but its not going to create a shortage that was anyworse than the last hiring frenzy. These things come in waves.


My limited perspective only really sees a trickle down theme as the possibility:

Geezers Retire
Majors Upgrade some FOs-Captains
Majors Hire New FOs
Regionals Upgrade new Captains
Regionals Hire New FOs & DE Captains
--Wages for FOs stay the same

Flight Schools see a shortage of CFIs with over 1500TT
-So they hire more guys straight out of CFI school and pay them better than every before (as was the case in the last pilot shortage)

Cargo Outfits see a shortage of guys over 1500TT
-So they start hiring guys to be VFR PICs at 500TT

Banner Tow, Pipeline Patrol, Traffic Watch and Skydiving operations are saturated with sub 300TT resumes, mins go up accordingly.

Places like ATPs offer "Guaranteed Job to 1500TT," PFT/PFJ becomes more prevalent as people want to hit 1500TT with more "experience".

Alaska mins stay roughly as they are now as insuring people under 1500TT is hard enough anyway.

The quantity of flight training students stays the same because of people touting the "great pilot shortage or 2012."
 
If the 1500 hr requirement passes, I see many regionals folding in the future. They won't be able to hire the numbers they need to keep planes flying. Plus at 1500 hrs I could most likely get a nice paying job flying a king air, PC-12, etc. Do that for 1000 more hours and voila...I can work for NetJets. My opinion is there are not enough people willing to work for low paying regionals if you must have 1500 hours. So what happens next? Pay raise? Perhaps. Then it becomes an issue of QOL. I'd rather not sit reserve and have the company buy my plane tickets to and from work, than have to deal with the hassles of commuting.

I don't know. I know everyone is not like me. I don't see a problem sticking it out for another 1000 hours to work for a company like NetJets. Granted NetJets isn't my career goal, but I'd be willing to stick it out to work for them opposed to a regional.
 
B767 said:
If the 1500 hr requirement passes, I see many regionals folding in the future. They won't be able to hire the numbers they need to keep planes flying. Plus at 1500 hrs I could most likely get a nice paying job flying a king air, PC-12, etc. Do that for 1000 more hours and voila...I can work for NetJets. My opinion is there are not enough people willing to work for low paying regionals if you must have 1500 hours. So what happens next? Pay raise? Perhaps. Then it becomes an issue of QOL. I'd rather not sit reserve and have the company buy my plane tickets to and from work, than have to deal with the hassles of commuting.

I don't know. I know everyone is not like me. I don't see a problem sticking it out for another 1000 hours to work for a company like NetJets. Granted NetJets isn't my career goal, but I'd be willing to stick it out to work for them opposed to a regional.
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I think if they raised the pay, there would be a lot more people willing to fly for them.
 
I don't think they'll raise the pay though. That requires higher ticket prices. Higher prices = less travelers. Less travelers = less profit. I think the intentions of the 1500/ATP are good. I just don't see it working out.

Plus, I'm not a CFI yet, but does 500 more hours of dual given really make a difference?
 
B767 said:
If the 1500 hr requirement passes, I see many regionals folding in the future. They won't be able to hire the numbers they need to keep planes flying. Plus at 1500 hrs I could most likely get a nice paying job flying a king air, PC-12, etc. Do that for 1000 more hours and voila...I can work for NetJets. My opinion is there are not enough people willing to work for low paying regionals if you must have 1500 hours. So what happens next? Pay raise? Perhaps. Then it becomes an issue of QOL. I'd rather not sit reserve and have the company buy my plane tickets to and from work, than have to deal with the hassles of commuting.

I don't know. I know everyone is not like me. I don't see a problem sticking it out for another 1000 hours to work for a company like NetJets. Granted NetJets isn't my career goal, but I'd be willing to stick it out to work for them opposed to a regional.
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That'd be nice. Talk to me at 1500TT about how many king air, and PC-12 jobs you're turning down. I doubt it, we'll see more of the same. Wages may climb marginally, but I sincerely doubt that the average first year FO on a regional ship won't see more than $30,000 per year for a long time (QX excluded).
 
B767 said:
Do that for 1000 more hours and voila...I can work for NetJets.
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Granted NetJets isn't my career goal, but I'd be willing to stick it out to work for them opposed to a regional.
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Aahahahhahahahah. ahahahhaha. ahahah. ahahahahahhahaha. aha. cough. sputter. ahah. Oh, man. Good stuff. I foretell great disappointment in your aviation-five-year-plan, B767! {/soothsayer}

PS. I'm right at 5000 hours. If my calculations are correct...*squint* *murmur* carry the one... Yes! That is twice 2500. Does that mean I can be a Netjets Captain!? I mean just until the Real Job comes along.

Ahahahhahahahahahahhahahah. "Mr. Buffet? It's Boris Badenov on line 4, he says he's ready for his Citation X type rating and six figure paycheck. You know, for now."
 
Boris Badenov said:
Blah
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No you can't...they aren't hiring ;)

I'll admit fault with my original post. I had a lot of "I's" in there making it seem like that is MY career plan. There should be a lot more "you's" in there making it more general, as I don't really have much a career plan, and will take what I can get when I can get it. I didn't mean for it to sound like once I hit 2500 hours, among other things, will magically be given a job at a place like NetJets. And I didn't mean for it to sound like I'M so great I can get a job flying a PC-12 or king air at 1500 hours. My mistake.
 
Higher minimums ("competitive" minimums) didn't raise wages in the past, it wont raise wages in the future.
 
surreal1221 said:
Yes, I'm qualified. Successful completion of federally mandated training indicates that I am. Otherwise, how would we know if a candidate is qualified or not?
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I've flown with some FOs that have done the same. They don't belong in the right seat of a jet. Sure, they passed their checkrides same as everyone else. With the right examiner, I can get ANYONE to pass their checkride on the first shot. The examiner has a canned exam, so I can just go up with the student and do the exam over and over until they get it perfect. Examiner even has the same oral every time for each different rating, so that's covered, too. Initial airline training is slightly different since there are more hoops, however reality has shown me that even basket cases that don't belong in the cockpit can get through that, too.

After these guys have been here a year, they're BETTER, but I still flew with one guy that was yanked immediately during a standards check after he'd been here for over a year. The fact that I was flat out telling him how to fly the plane and kept us from getting violated was probably a tip off to the check airman sitting on the jump seat.
 
We'll just have to wait and see what happens next time the airlines start hiring again. Comair is currently listing 1000/200. ASA 1500/300. Pinnacle 1000/200. Skywest 1000/100. Mesa 1500/200 (among other requirements). The list goes on. Bet they'll keep these same mins when they start hiring again, but no one will see a major pay increase.
 
kellwolf said:
After these guys have been here a year, they're BETTER, but I still flew with one guy that was yanked immediately during a standards check after he'd been here for over a year. The fact that I was flat out telling him how to fly the plane and kept us from getting violated was probably a tip off to the check airman sitting on the jump seat.
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What the heck was he doing?
 
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