Pilots Really "Six Figure Professionals"?

Aaron_Kearney

Aaron_Kearney

New Member
Saw this mentioned in another thread and thought it was worth starting another for. At present times, I think pilots put in enough work - both through the exacting nature of the job and thorough training required - to deserve a better amount of pay than what they receive now. I'm not questioning that.

However, I was sitting in the barber shop today reading through a Popular Mechanics article about the future of flight, and how airplanes could very well become accessible (flyable?) for the majority of American households in the not-so-distant future. There was even a bit about turning UAV's into mail and freight vehicles.

So, what's everyone's take on this? Of course, it's impossible to see into the future, but it's always interesting to take a stab at it. Would the figurative "airborne Model T" make pilots nothing more than glorified bus drivers? If it did, would you still do it for a living?
 
Not a chance.

Think about it like this; if they can't run trains, which can't do anything but go up and down a piece of track, without people then we'll never stop having people up front.
 
Aaron_Kearney said:
However, I was sitting in the barber shop today reading through a Popular Mechanics article about the future of flight, and how airplanes could very well become accessible (flyable?) for the majority of American households in the not-so-distant future.
Click to expand...

I think that same magazine has been predicting that for many years now. Even if it does become true in say 30 years I hope to be doing something else to support myself.:)
 
They said the back in the early days of aviation that everyone would have an airplane instead of a car and airplanes would ultimately be the primary means of travel to and from work in the near future.

That was 70+ years ago.
 
i saw something like this on TV the other day. Planes like the new Eclipse are going to start an "Air Taxi Generation" where instead of people flying with Southwest to take that 30 min flight, they will just fly in an air taxi. People often say that in 10 years everyone will get around in small planes. no cars. I think that is pretty far-fetched. People cant even drive cars responsibly. How in the hell will they be able to fly. and besides people are still going to want to go across country and to far away places. Thats why international airlines will be around for a very long time. I think it is possible for a SLIGHT decline in the regionals. However, not for at least another decade. Even then the need for airlines will still be strong.
 
boeing 777-300 said:
i saw something like this on TV the other day. Planes like the new Eclipse are going to start an "Air Taxi Generation" where instead of people flying with Southwest to take that 30 min flight.
Click to expand...

I doubt those Air Taxi flights will cost less than what Southwest and Jetblue are charging. Until that changes I believe people will continue to fly on Air Greyhound type airlines versus taking an Air Taxi.
 
I doubt those Air Taxi flights will cost less than what Southwest and Jetblue are charging. Until that changes I believe people will continue to fly on Air Greyhound type airlines versus taking an Air Taxi.
Click to expand...

i left out the part that an air taxi ticket will be about $500. That means this service would be for them High Society folks who want to skip the fuss of an airport.
 
boeing 777-300 said:
i left out the part that an air taxi ticket will be about $500. That means this service would be for them High Society folks who want to skip the fuss of an airport.
Click to expand...

I'd pay $500 if it meant I'd get to my destination non-stop, without the 1 hr drive to the airport, the security line, and crying babies...

I'd think flights on today's "air taxi" would still be in the 5-8k range - still very affordable for many. Especially smaller businesses that can't afford the fractionals, but would rather skip the airlines.
 
Wait just a damn minute! Are you telling me that I can pay to get someone to fly me somewhere without having to go to through airport security??? When did they start this?:sarcasm:
 
This subject and Non-manned airliners are all BS, I mean, how many people are responsible and patient enough to learn to fly? Not many. Actually most are just lazy.

And the Un-mmaned airliners, well look at it from the passengers point of view. Would you get on a plane that is flown 100% on computers? Lets hope to god microsoft dont build them.
 
Whatcha gonna do when you need to hit control alt delete at FL350?

That's why we won't have unmanned passenger planes.
 
tonyw said:
Whatcha gonna do when you need to hit control alt delete at FL350?

That's why we won't have unmanned passenger planes.
Click to expand...


I like that. Thats great.

As long as computers still take siestas for no apparent reason john Q public will want pilots up front. Hey, I'm still waiting to party like its 1999 so i dont see a plane for everyone for a very long time.
 
Wait just a damn minute! Are you telling me that I can pay to get someone to fly me somewhere without having to go to through airport security??? When did they start this?:sarcasm:
Click to expand...

LoL

Whatcha gonna do when you need to hit control alt delete at FL350?
Click to expand...

well, if its windows ME you will have to hit ctrl alt delete again because the original one froze your computer
 
I think Popular Mechanics (or a similar mag) said the same thing in the 40s (post war) and 50s. Hell, after there were so many spare planes around after WWII, aircraft manufacturers TRIED the whole sell airplanes like cars things. Look at some of the cockpits from that era, and they even LOOK like the inside of the cars from the same era. That didn't quite pan out, and a lot of manufacturers took it in the gut on that one.

With the current price of gas and insurance, it's not even close to a viable option. As far as the air taxis go, you might see a good chunk of today's first class airline passengers shift that way, but I doubt if the general public will.
 
Aaron_Kearney said:
However, I was sitting in the barber shop today reading through a Popular Mechanics article about the future of flight, and how airplanes could very well become accessible (flyable?) for the majority of American households in the not-so-distant future. There was even a bit about turning UAV's into mail and freight vehicles.

So, what's everyone's take on this? Of course, it's impossible to see into the future, but it's always interesting to take a stab at it. Would the figurative "airborne Model T" make pilots nothing more than glorified bus drivers? If it did, would you still do it for a living?
Click to expand...

Of course this will happen eventually. In the distant future. Flying is ready to make the leap to full automation. It will be lead by the military, where a lot of money is being spent right now in that area.

For a long time there will be warm bodies in front, but the trend will be towards more and more automation until one day it will be obvious that a pilot is just extra baggage.
 
flyover said:
Of course this will happen eventually. In the distant future. Flying is ready to make the leap to full automation. It will be lead by the military, where a lot of money is being spent right now in that area.

For a long time there will be warm bodies in front, but the trend will be towards more and more automation until one day it will be obvious that a pilot is just extra baggage.
Click to expand...


Could be. Especially all stick and rudder activity. Still, I look at the decisions that I must make on a daily basis and I see no way automation could perform the job without a more intelligent interface...ie the pilot. The automation is 'dutiful...but dumb'.

Airline flying presents a great opportunity for leadership...it's a great challenge if done properly. Of all the subordinate tasks that must be coordinated by the captain...passengers, flight plans, fuel loads, catering, maintenance, ATC planning, crew issues, weight & balance, performance, cargo/baggage loading...and giving cockpit tours to little kids (and their dads)...the automation is just another subordinate task to be managed and led properly.

I wouldn't be afraid of automation. If you are concerned about the lack of a challenge...increased sophistication in automation won't reduce the challenge or the need for high level leadership, decision making and judgment in the cockpit...all done in a fast paced, dynamic and ever changing environment.

I used to get glossy eyed everytime the topics of leadership and decision making were covered in class. Everyone knows how to make good decisions, right? But now...I see the need for good, effective leaders who make consistently good decisions in the cockpit. I've learned that these skills aren't inherited as a birthright.
 
It's entirely conceivable that an automated flying vehicle and a system can be designed to make it possible. The technology is there for automation. And the growth of that will be a simple proof of concept: fly car from point A to point B with a press of a button. Complexity in any system can be simplified using programming and logic.

I'm sure pilots today feels a degree of threat to their livelihood and passion, but look at what manufacturing techniques and automation have done for all those assembly line workers in the past. They moved on to find something else to do. Will it happen in the next 50 years? I doubt it. But the technology is closer at hand than anyone thinks. After all, your single engine airplanes today have more advanced avionics and navigational management systems than some commercial jets.

I'm sure energy will be a major issue. With the cost of gas going up and maintaining that trend, it's going to be very expensive for the average American to own their own airplane. Not every average family in America need to travel outside the confines of their county and/or city everyday. Flying is expensive. Period. End of story. Unless people start making mad money with ease and the cost of gas goes down to 50 cents per gallon and the cost of these planes come down to $50K new, people simply won't be able to afford it. A single engine plane new out of the factory is about $200K plus annual up keep costs (oh, and luxury tax on the purchase). You don't see every American family buying a Cirrus or Diamond like they do cars. There will most likely be no need for ownership of an expensive personal transportation vehicle due to logistics of flight. You need airports and after you get to your airport, you STILL need a car to get around!

Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? I doubt it.
 
When people are comfortable enough to turn their cars over to automation, we might see within a few decads of that baselineshift a move to automation in aircraft.

Until then we'll always have two camps: Those who think it'll be here tomorrow and those who don't.
 
B767Driver said:
Could be. Especially all stick and rudder activity. Still, I look at the decisions that I must make on a daily basis and I see no way automation could perform the job without a more intelligent interface...ie the pilot. The automation is 'dutiful...but dumb'.

Airline flying presents a great opportunity for leadership...it's a great challenge if done properly. Of all the subordinate tasks that must be coordinated by the captain...passengers, flight plans, fuel loads, catering, maintenance, ATC planning, crew issues, weight & balance, performance, cargo/baggage loading...and giving cockpit tours to little kids (and their dads)...the automation is just another subordinate task to be managed and led properly.

I wouldn't be afraid of automation. If you are concerned about the lack of a challenge...increased sophistication in automation won't reduce the challenge or the need for high level leadership, decision making and judgment in the cockpit...all done in a fast paced, dynamic and ever changing environment.

I used to get glossy eyed everytime the topics of leadership and decision making were covered in class. Everyone knows how to make good decisions, right? But now...I see the need for good, effective leaders who make consistently good decisions in the cockpit. I've learned that these skills aren't inherited as a birthright.
Click to expand...

Airline safety has improved in direct correlation to the amount of judgment and skill that has been taken out of it. That's one of the things that will drive the move to automated flying. It will be much safer when the need for human decision making is out of the picture.

The other driving force will be efficiency.

And talking about current "automation" and trying to project that forward is meaningless. Technology is quickly going to bring capabilities that we can't even imagine now.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=393401&in_page_id=1770
 
flyover said:
Airline safety has improved in direct correlation to the amount of judgment and skill that has been taken out of it. That's one of the things that will drive the move to automated flying. It will be much safer when the need for human decision making is out of the picture.
Click to expand...

That's a tough claim to back-up. Overall technology (construction techniques) has improved. Maintenace oversight has been increased. Maintenace training and techniques have improved. Things have been learned from past accidents (explain how automation has anythign to do with Doppler Radar, Windshear detection and avoidance equipment/techniques, etc.). Training (CRM) has improved vastly. And, yes, "automation" has been introduced.

I'd wager it's a combination of ALL of those things ... not solely automation that has driven saftey upwards. It also speaks volumes for pilot professionalism and the human being itself that during probably one of the worst downturns the industry has seen safety has risen. Not many other professions can claim that and it was/is human beings doing that, not automation.

For all the advances of "automation" it all only works right if you have smart, properly trained folks running/overseeing it. An AP will only do what it's told ... better hope what it was told is correct.

I do however agree with you that automation will probably get here but it'll be a while off (100 years or so?). We're rapidly reaching the end of the mathmaetical equation (can't remember the name) that predicted how fast computers could get. In other words we're reaching a plateua of technology. It's the natural order of things.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top