Pilot Shortage ???
- Thread starter South American Pilot
- Start date
kellwolf
Piece of Trash
If mainline decides to reduce frequency and just run bigger planes, that will delay things. For example, instead of having 3 departures a day from MSP-LAX on 757s, they have 2 on 767s, there ya go. The shortage really won't be at mainline, either. At least not for several years. Plenty of qualified guys at the regionals right now for those jobs. So, my guess, is the regionals will go away before we see any kind of "shortage" at the mainline level. Then instead of 4 flights a day on RJs between OKC and anywhere, you'll see 2 717s.
even with all the guys at the RJ level, corporate, and military who ACTUALLY want to get on with mainline airlines, its going to be a battle to fill the 35,000+ jobs opening up over the next 20 years. Not to mention if the economy bubbles up and things around this country start looking up, new markets might even emerge and this shrink to profitability model may reverse.
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
Not all of the guys who have been around for a while scoff at the "pilot shortage" claims. I firmly believe that the shortage is coming. Keep in mind that most of the guys here who laugh at the idea have only been in the industry post-9/11. Derg and Richman are exceptions to this, of course. But I think some of it has to do with the definition that someone uses of "shortage." I would call what we had in 1999-2001 a shortage. Just about every regional pilot with 1,000 PIC who wanted to go to a major had at least one opportunity to do so. Many had multiple offers, in fact. But others don't consider that a shortage, so it just depends on the definition that you're using. Are we going to end up in a situation where the shortage is so bad that flights are canceled in droves and pilots are being offered $400/hr to come to work for a specific carrier? No, not likely. But will there be a situation where regional pilots who want to go to the majors will have no problem in doing so? I think that's nearly certain with the retirement numbers that are coming. Barring another 9/11, of course.
mastermags
Well-Known Member *giggity*
In the 60's Eastern was hiring guys with 250 hours and brand new commercial certificates and couldn't get enough. I don't think we'll see anything quite like that again, but it has happened before.
Keep in mind that the pilot shortage is supposed to be global, and while many people (maybe most people) have no intention to take a job overseas, I think the opportunities will be there for those that do.
Keep in mind that the pilot shortage is supposed to be global, and while many people (maybe most people) have no intention to take a job overseas, I think the opportunities will be there for those that do.
HRDiva
Well-Known Member
Well DH was around for a while by the time of the first set of layoffs at what was then US Air in 1992, so I guess he qualifies as having been in the industry a while. We know lots who had one or more opportunities. But, you forgot the third option for regional pilots with 1,000 PIC who wanted to go to a major in 1999-2001: those that never even got called for the interview despite multiple internal recommendations. We know lots of them too.
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
I'm sure they existed, but I sure didn't know them. At least not any who didn't have some sort of black mark on their record, or the lack of a college degree. We couldn't upgrade pilots fast enough to replace the mass exodus of pilots leaving for the majors prior to 9/11. Upgrade classes were running constantly.
HRDiva
Well-Known Member
Well that was very nice of you--I'll run that one by DH and let you know what he says about that...
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
You're a little sensitive. I didn't say that it applied to him, or anyone else in particular. Just that I didn't personally know of any. Don't take things so personally.
SlumTodd_Millionaire
Most Hated Member
Didn't suggest that he did, either.
kellwolf
Piece of Trash
There will be a dip, but I hesitate to call it a "shortage." I would refer to it as a "market with lower barriers to entry." However, a shortage would imply that there won't be enough to go around. I highly doubt that will be the case, especially if we see more mergers down the road. For example, if AA and US Air merge, they're not going to keep all those routes they both operate. They'll consolidate the same as Delta/Northwest did. If one of the other airlines like Virgin, jetBlue or Alaska get sucked into the fray, that's more consolidation. EAS routes will start to drop to the way side and be served by places like Cape Air and Silver. We're already seeing a lot of that happen now.
Richman
JC’s Resident Curmudgeon
No, it's not any different.
Yes, it is a myth, and you ARE engaging in wishful thinking.
No, what happened in the 60's doesn't matter, because most transports were 3 man aircraft and there was SIGNIFICANT mainline growth to go along with it. Those aircraft are mostly gone, except for the handful of freighters that still use them.
No, 1999-2001 was not a shortage, and not everyone who signed up got to play. In a historical context, it was "normal hiring", and not even the most since the 80's. Look back at an old Air, Inc or FAPA newsletter from the 1980s. Multiple, large airlines hiring 60-100+ PER MONTH, for several years. That hiring was mostly growth driven, with some nice retirements thrown in. That's serious hiring, and there were no regionals (as we know them today) to draw from, and there was no shortage then, either.
So with the retiements coming up, you are going to have is a trickle of hiring to cover attrition. 500 a year, at a few airlines, which is nothing in the big picture. To get the serious hiring, you need BIG growth to go along with attrition, which will not happen anytime soon.
Go back to school, become a doctor, mortician or accountant. There will always be sick people, people will always die, and there will always be taxes.
Here endeth the lesson.
Richman
ZapBrannigan
If it ain’t a Boeing, I’m not going. No choice.
A lot of people got a lot older during the last decade of stagnation at the majors. Once you hit 40+ the decision to try for a major or stay put gets a lot harder.
B767
Well-Known Member
Based on what the people I get to fly with as a reserve pilot (lots of 40+'s) say, this couldn't be more true.
OR they "are planning on moving to ATL, CLT, insert major hub here, once their oldest graduates high school, and thus they are holding out for one specific major. They have no desire to ever commute again and are unwilling to go to an airline that doesn't have a hub at home, or a hub where they won't move. Not that that's a problem, just a personal choice they've made.
HVYMETALDRVR
Well-Known Member
So for example then, (I'm assuming the payscales on APC are accurate) I'm a widebody captain, 62 yrs old flying int'l routes mostly to Asia... How do they determine the bonus for retiring early? 20% of potential earnings over the next 3 years? 40%?
HVYMETALDRVR
Well-Known Member
Gotchya thanks!
HRDiva
Well-Known Member
My co-worker's DH took the early out last year and retired 12/31/11. They are paying him his guarantee for one year (he was a CA on the 747) and benefits till age 65 (in his case 5 years). So, I guess they changed it for 2012 if they are not offering compensation.
