What would you estimate mgmts target for a passing vote is?
Serious question, probably needs a serious answer for all of the lurkers and such.
So, IMHO, this is really a intraorginizational bargaining problem. What is that? Simply put, expectations of membership in line with the end result of bargaining between the NC and management. Think of it as the vote on a TA to become a CBA as a final step of bargaining, but the bargaining is between the membership and the MEC/NC.
The question for an individual pilot is pretty simple, does the TA "meet or exceed" your expectations. The choice is binary... yes or no. The problem is, that like with everything else, pilots suddenly become 'experts' in labor negotiations theory and practice leading up to and upon release of a TA to membership.
Then, politics takes over. Posturing goes to an all time high. Etc. etc. - pilots who wouldn't volunteer for thankless jobs suddenly step forward and tell everyone how they would have done better. The armchair aviators suddenly start, through perfect 20/20 hindsight, quarterbacking every bullet point and bargaining item of the TA. This affects the final vote result.
So, what is a good result? What's the target? Who is looking at it?
Well, one theory is that management doesn't care. This is true. The union vote doesn't matter. They bargained the agreement, when the union does their thing, then they will sign it. Done.
There is that 50%+1 theory. What's up with that? Think, intraorginational bargaining and strategically how that would play into future bargaining. Does that vote result of a TA show that the agreement is "meeting or exceeding the expectations of membership?" Well, it's a majority. Yippee. Democracy rules! But 49% of the pilot group is like, "WTF?!?! My Tesla Payment a month in dues" bought me this!!!"
(How dues are being used is a whole different discussion, but the quote is meant to be illustrative of the attitude.) Is the result something that management can use to undermine unity? (This goes towards the final question I ask, what is the relationship between management and the union...)
Within the union, it's up to the movers and the shakers to figure out what was a good result. I have my opinion, which is worth what opinions are usually worth. The important thing to remember is that there are pilots who will vote yes to anything. There are pilots who will vote no to EVERYTHING. (i.e. "Never say yes to the first offer!!!") There are pilots who are very engaged, pilots who are apathetic, pilots who are very self-interested... (i.e. they see a contractual loophole being closed that they crush it on and become very vocal about everything -but that- because they don't want their 'sweet deal' to disappear.)
Personally, outside of the voting I am a firm believer in polling. I think we need more of it. Also, educational communications. But all of that costs money and time - and politically there seems to be some pretty interesting takes out there about how much information the average line pilot should be getting, and what that information should contain. A TA vote itself is a pretty big survey. (Plus or minus a certain amount anyway for political reasons.)
In the end, management will use the data, like they use all data... in the room where it happens. For instance, if management knew that pilots wanted pay above all, they would put a higher 'price tag' on the 'pay item' at the table as it related to the total value of the agreement. The pay increase will 'cost' pilots more when they are conducting the distributive bargaining (allocating the totality of ther resources) for that bargaining item. By management NOT knowing the priorities, you can use more of a integrative (problem solving) structure for all of these bargaining items.
The endorsement by membership of an agreement is data. What that endorsement is is also data.
This is really very over simplistic.
Pilots will infer that if the end result of the vote is 50%+1 that we 'left money on the table.' (You may have, you may have not... probably not because of 'time value of money and so forth') They will also infer that if we got 100% in favor that we somehow 'beat' management, but... "They will be gunning for us the next time around - or that they will just gut the CBA in bankruptcy"or something like that.
It's not as simple as that either, there are a very many moving parts in how the data is inferred.
So, all that to say that they aren't looking at the vote except as a data point for future bargaining. They are looking at the vote as a particular metric that they can use to maximize the value out of their labor force..
Finally, Management's relationship with the union is what maters. Is it an adversarial one or a business partnership. Depending on the answer, the data they glean from that particular metric will be used for 'good' or 'evil.'
Believe it or not, "happiness" is an actual metric used to determine (in a small part) the multiplier for executive bonuses.
I believe at my shop it's "engagement" - which is a much more insidious metric.