Morbid curiosity. Upgrade times?
- Thread starter ZapBrannigan
- Start date
Kingairer
'Tiger Team' Member
I dont see how this would be possible or necessary at this point.
///AMG
Well-Known Member
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
Kingairer
'Tiger Team' Member
You'd still be a NB captain. It wouldve been a long tumultuous road filled with uncertainty for a 99 hire up until the last 10 yearsish , a very cloudy crystal ball. At this point a 99 USAir hire (5500 sen ish) is probably 3 years away (about 2-2500 numbers) from a 777 WB captain in JFK.
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ClearedForOption
Displaced... again.
This could be it's very own thread. That 2000-2500 seems to track perfectly with the retirements over the next 3 years. ZB's career is a good case study.
A long time ago, in the last millennium, wise-old FE's and CA's (747A and 747C @Cherokee_Cruiser
) that had very turbulent careers because of deregulation and timing told me that once I planted myself at an airline, I was not to jump ship and chase the 'grass is greener' mentality. I probably could have still made the jump 6-8ish years ago, but, like the great sage Ernie Gaan said the numbers are everything.10 years from now we will be talking about these years as a crazy time in the industry.
Kingairer
'Tiger Team' Member
Lost decade factors in here.. An early 99 USAir hire could hold 777 CA in lets say 2025, so 26 years from DOH. A 2013 hire could hold 777 CA in 2028 or 15 years from DOH. The lost decade.
ClearedForOption
Displaced... again.
Of course. Those 10 years have been a plague on all of our careers. I'm just waiting for the day when I'm trying to explain it and other career dynamics to a new mid-20's FO and get a solid "OK Boomer" back as a response.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
OK boomer.
Last night hanging with our FA's and watching the manta rays at the hotel they asked me how I felt about flying with super inexperienced pilots. Which I imagine will be soon. I was all for it. But it's weird to think about how when I first applied to the airline I'm working at in 2012. I was told "they will only hire line check airmen or chief pilots." Now we are about to drop the ATP requirement and put people in a sim for a few months to get up to 1500 hours. It's the only way to create a "seniority trap" to keep people here longer than a couple years.
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
This could be it's very own thread. That 2000-2500 seems to track perfectly with the retirements over the next 3 years. ZB's career is a good case study.
A long time ago, in the last millennium, wise-old FE's and CA's (747A and 747C @Cherokee_Cruiser
10 years from now we will be talking about these years as a crazy time in the industry.
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
Heard it at CQ bud. Don't be mad.
CFI A&P
Exploring the world one toilet at a time.
There are kids that got into the industry after Colgan 3407 and have no idea that it hasn't always been this way, aka the lost decade. Many of those kids are getting hired on at majors and they only began flying 5 years ago.
Trip7
Well-Known Member
roundout
VNAV monitor
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
Why would FAs ask a FO about flying with low experienced pilots?
And yes, nothing would surprise me in regards to minimums and changes in the airline industry. I was 27 when I was hired in 2012. Now almost capped out at 12th yr pay. That’s why I’m staying.
If I was 27 today? Not even $400/hr would keep me here. A 38+ yr career? Go to the big 3. Whatever mins change at AS, you’re going to see something very similar at other non-big 3 airlines. I know some at AS like to pretend that AS woes are solely AS woes, but fact is all the other non big 3 majors are facing the same problems. And attrition is VIRTUALLY the same at AS, B6, and NK. You’re not gonna stop low seniority people who are young from going to the big 3.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
IDK maybe if you spent time interacting with your crew you'd understand why they would ask questions like that. But hey. You do you.
ClearedForOption
Displaced... again.
Yep. And most likely they will experience those mythical careers that we only heard about when we all got started in this industry 10-15-20 something years ago. Free of furloughs, ropes being pulled up everywhere, boats galore, other toys, 2nd, 3rd, even 4th spouses and associated alimony... Because, well... seniority math.
It's always been a very cyclical industry and with the medical retirement/ageism "forcing" perfectly healthy pilots out at 65 (or so I've been told by those approaching their 65th birthday) there are always going to be boom and bust cycles in this career. We are living that boom cycle today. It really feels weird. At least from where I sit.
My niece for instance, 16, and very interested in this as a career will have a very different career trajectory than someone who is 25-26 and is currently at the regionals for instance. Her career, if she doesn't change her mind as teenagers are apt to do, will be more parallel to mine in the ups and downs, and seniority progression vs. someone who is being hired today at a legacy. (Subtracting the fact that I'm saving my "Azul Arrow", forged by Thror, King under the Mountain for her once she has the mins to work at my shop to potentially give her career a boost.)
I guess my point is that we can't forget the past, just learn from it and pass on what we have learned. And continue to stress, through mentoring, that we need to leave this career in a better place than the way we found it.
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
Ooo sick burn. I’ve interacted with my crews before, during, and after a flight. Sorry it wasn’t late night with them watching swans.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
They had some fun horror stories about pilots. You should try listening sometime.