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I think we're fairly safe here in AZ. But then, after the border/national guard drug bust, I'm not so sure.
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Luke has a ton of problems, everything from airspace (civil) to noise problems, to encroachment. It sucks to be able to only launch with live heavyweight ordnance off of RW 21 only. Right across the street from the south gate, a new housing subdivision was built about a year ago. I bet dollars to donuts everyone moved in on a Sunday and doesn't know an airbase is across the street. A few years back, you might remember the D-model 16 that lost it's engine on takeoff. Crew jetted the centerline bag and stores, which landed in a Circle K parking lot and on the hood of a pickup truck sitting at a red light, and the jet crashed into a field behind the K. About 3 miles off the departure end of 21L, El Paso Natural Gas has a bunch of acres they've owned since the 1940s. They've decided to develop it into a 3.5 million cubic foot natural gas storage facility. Imagine the lightshow that will happen for days after the first F-16 dumps into that place. Besides, one of the big criteria of this BRAC is impact to the local economy if the base closes. For Luke, it's next to nothing. I don't mean for Glendale or for Goodyear/Litchfield Park; I'm referring to what the BRAC commission will be looking at: how it affects Metro Phoenix. That is, how much will Apache Junction, Gilbert, Queen Creek, Chandler, Scottsdale and Chandler be affected by the loss of Luke? Next to nothing. Sure there's the large Goldwater bombing range, but that would be unaffected...simply shift operations of it to DM in Tucson, or even Yuma MCAS.