Latest Eagle AIP rejected

[ClarkGriswold]

What about Air Wisconsin? They have some crusty CRJs in need of replacement and money to pay up. It's amazing how much people underestimate management, if they want something done they WILL get it done. Not saying live in fear but this is corporate Merica we're talking about here.

 

[jtrain609]

Why do you guys think shutdowns are binary? They don't say "we're closing the doors" and do it tomorrow.

They do it over 12 months at a few planes per month. You park the planes at the rate you can spin up the replacements.

 

[JOEFRIDAY2]

Don't ever sell short management's ability to quickly shut down a regional of any size. Especially a wholly-owned. They will. The problems with your assumption are: 1) ALL of the flying needs replaced and 2) it will be replaced by another commuter.

Again the passengers must be moved. Today, there is no other place to send the passengers and that is what has changed. You must understand that if the airlines had wanted to get rid of the regionals, they would have. The problem they have is that 50% of their passengers fly on the regionals in order to make a connection. The airlines can not shut off 50% of their revenue. That would put them in bankruptcy.

Look at Pinnacle/Endeavor. After merging Mesaba and Colgan into Pinnacle, Delta basically forced them into bankruptcy. Then Delta owns them. Then they changed the name to Endeavor. If Delta didn't HAVE to have them then that would have been the end of it. There would have been a liquidation and it would have all been over. Just like Comair. But that did not happen. The reason it did not happen is because those passengers must be moved and Delta had no other way to move them. It's a different time than when Delta decided to shut down Comair.

This brings me to another point, a lot of the flying that the regionals were doing will be moved back to mainline. That still does not eliminate the need for more pilots. It's going to take a bit of time for this to happen and the airlines will milk the regionals as long as they can. Delta just bought the 717's. Those 717's are going to be used to fly routes that used to be flown by Pinnacle.

Joe

 

[roundout]

Why do you guys think shutdowns are binary? They don't say "we're closing the doors" and do it tomorrow.

They do it over 12 months at a few planes per month. You park the planes at the rate you can spin up the replacements.

Right. If it hangs for 5 years then closes, the threats still turned out to be true.

 

[JOEFRIDAY2]

What about Air Wisconsin? They have some crusty CRJs in need of replacement and money to pay up. It's amazing how much people underestimate management, if they want something done they WILL get it done. Not saying live in fear but this is corporate Merica we're talking about here.

Air Wisconsin is also short staffed on pilots. However I do believe there is a bright future for Air Wisconsin and American.

Next

 

[ClarkGriswold]

Again the passengers must be moved. Today, there is no other place to send the passengers and that is what has changed. You must understand that if the airlines had wanted to get rid of the regionals, they would have. The problem they have is that 50% of their passengers fly on the regionals in order to make a connection. The airlines can not shut off 50% of their revenue. That would put them in bankruptcy.

Look at Pinnacle/Endeavor. After merging Mesaba and Colgan into Pinnacle, Delta basically forced them into bankruptcy. Then they changed the name to Endeavor. If Delta didn't have to have them then that would have been the end of it. There would have been a liquidation and it would have all been over. Just like Comair. But that did not happen. The reason it did not happen is because those passengers must be moved and Delta had no other way to move them.

This brings me to another point, a lot of the flying that the regionals were doing will be moved back to mainline. That still does not eliminate the need for more pilots. It's going to take a bit of time for this to happen and the airlines will milk the regionals as long as they can. Delta just bought the 717's. Those 717's are going to be used to fly routes that used to be flown by Pinnacle.

Joe

The flaw in your pinnacle comparison is they would have • down overnight as there was no money left. AE on the other hand has money to operate while ever so slowly being fileted until it's time to putt'er down. Again they will find a way and it's wishful thinking to believe otherwise.

 

[roundout]

Some of you guys are making this way too hard. AAG, formerly amr, doesn't want be in the regional airline business, unless for right price. They tried to get the business down to right price. Didn't happen.so now they want out. Whether it takes a week or a year, 5 years, whatever-it doesn't matter. A couple planes here and there...next thing you know your "irreplaceable regional airline" is gone. Death by a thousand cuts.

What matters is where you when the music stops. Focus on the goal, whatever yours may be. There will be jobs for everybody in the next 5 to Ten years. Make sure you aren't at the bottom of the list.

 

[Maurus]

Don't ever sell short management's ability to quickly shut down a regional of any size. Especially a wholly-owned. They will. The problems with your assumption are: 1) ALL of the flying needs replaced and 2) it will be replaced by another commuter.

I can believe this, but in our current climate shutting down a large regional is essentially a "bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" situation. There is no guarantee they will stay in the industry or even remain in their feeder network. Why go to work for the same people that just furloughed you?

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk

 

[Maurus]

Air Wisconsin is also short staffed on pilots. However I do believe there is a bright future for Air Wisconsin and American.

Next

Possibly, but they have an even more expensive contract than eagle. Not sure if they have longevity issues though.

 

[roundout]

Possibly, but they have an even more expensive contract than eagle. Not sure if they have longevity issues though.

Apples to oranges. Whiskey is a contractor if AAG hires them, much like sky west is a contractor to United. Everybody agrees on a price, United hands them a check.But United didn't care if everybody at sky west makes $1/hr or $100/hr.That's the contractor's problem. All United cares is that the flights get from a to b. With eagle being wholly owned it's not the same.

 

[Polar742]

I can believe this, but in our current climate shutting down a large regional is essentially a "bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" situation. There is no guarantee they will stay in the industry or even remain in their feeder network. Why go to work for the same people that just furloughed you?

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk

Again the passengers must be moved. Today, there is no other place to send the passengers and that is what has changed. You must understand that if the airlines had wanted to get rid of the regionals, they would have. The problem they have is that 50% of their passengers fly on the regionals in order to make a connection. The airlines can not shut off 50% of their revenue. That would put them in bankruptcy.

Look at Pinnacle/Endeavor. After merging Mesaba and Colgan into Pinnacle, Delta basically forced them into bankruptcy. Then they changed the name to Endeavor. If Delta didn't have to have them then that would have been the end of it. There would have been a liquidation and it would have all been over. Just like Comair. But that did not happen. The reason it did not happen is because those passengers must be moved and Delta had no other way to move them.

This brings me to another point, a lot of the flying that the regionals were doing will be moved back to mainline. That still does not eliminate the need for more pilots. It's going to take a bit of time for this to happen and the airlines will milk the regionals as long as they can. Delta just bought the 717's. Those 717's are going to be used to fly routes that used to be flown by Pinnacle.

Joe

Like many others, we've seen this show before.

We've heard the same reasoning you're using.

We've seen it happen in great times and terrible times.

They. Don't. Care.

Talk about capacity.

Airlines that would dwarf eagle disappeared overnight. Not a blip on the scope.

Reimagining their network has been done, and is being done, as we type. What they will see is an opportunity to increase prices, thus margin and stock holder value, in this rationalized constrained capacity market place.

Fight the good fight, but don't ignore reality.

 

[roundout]

Like many others, we've seen this show before.

We've heard the same reasoning you're using.

We've seen it happen in great times and terrible times.

They. Don't. Care.

Talk about capacity.

Airlines that would dwarf eagle disappeared overnight. Not a blip on the scope.

Reimagining their network has been done, and is being done, as we type. What they will see is an opportunity to increase prices, thus margin and stock holder value, in this rationalized constrained capacity market place.

Fight the good fight, but don't ignore reality.

I flew with a guy recently who's(still) on strike from eastern airlines. Listening to his oral history righted some wrongs i had. Still would have voted no, though.

 

[Polar742]

I flew with a guy recently who's(still) on strike from eastern airlines. Listening to his oral history righted some wrongs i had. Still would have voted no, though.

No doubt. There is a line, and I think the pilots have found it. I'm not implying anyone should not try to improve their situation, and there is a line you won't cross.

The only comment I'm trying to get across, much like @Gonzo has said, the game is rigged against us.

The idea that there is a magical umbrella that shields one particular airline is asinine.

 

[roundout]

Asinine, foolish, naive, arrogant, myopic, shortsighted....should I go on?

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

Like many others, we've seen this show before.

We've heard the same reasoning you're using.

We've seen it happen in great times and terrible times.

They. Don't. Care.

Bingo.

I was Comair's EVP during their last couple of years of concessionary bargaining, and ultimately their shutdown. The same reasons being cited here for why Envoy can't be shut down were uttered by many Comair pilots. A great many of those same Comair pilots are now at the bottom of the seniority list at another regional. Never believe that you're irreplaceable. You aren't.

 

[USMCmech]

I'm not an airline pilot, but from the outside looking in as a guy who will be sending resumes out 12 months from now there are a few things I'm willing to bet on.

Never believe that you're irreplaceable. You aren't.

Envoy will likely be shut down, and the flying will be shifted to the other regionals. AMR already wants to park the majority of the 50 seat RJs anyway. Good business decision or not, AMR management would loose too much face it they back down from this fight.

This process will take several years. Yes, it could happen in 6 months but AMR isn't in that much of a hurry. Comair was killed off in 6 months, but that was only after almost a decade after the strike and a good 5 years of bleeding them white.

Speaking as a complete outsider, ALPA and the other unions should make it a priority to find the Envoy pilots a place to land. Given the projected hiring over the next 5 years, this should be feasible for a sizable chunk of the pilot group. If a union doesn't look after it's members, then what good is it?

In the meantime, all the other regional airlines will be fighting for the flying that Envoy is loosing. The very real shortage of pilots willing to work for 1st year regional pay will make this process much more difficult than it was 5 years ago.

At some point regional management will wake up to the fact that extremely low first year pay is blocking a great deal of potential pilots from applying. There are lots of pilots who are qualified and want to get back into the cockpit, but can't take the pay cut from managing the tire store to get back flying again.

Some regionals (Mesa) have created such a horrible reputation that they will have to offer well above even the new higher pay scales.



At this point Envoy is officially off my "better regionals where I could break into 121 flying" list. I'll have to wait and see where my family and I want to land after I graduate.

 

[Maurus]

Like many others, we've seen this show before.

We've heard the same reasoning you're using.

We've seen it happen in great times and terrible times.

They. Don't. Care.

Talk about capacity.

Airlines that would dwarf eagle disappeared overnight. Not a blip on the scope.

Reimagining their network has been done, and is being done, as we type. What they will see is an opportunity to increase prices, thus margin and stock holder value, in this rationalized constrained capacity market place.

Fight the good fight, but don't ignore reality.

I understand the reality and that is why plan B is always being reevaluated and amended as things happen.

I just think this time may actually be different for once. Major airlines haven't seen the hiring wave they are about to have for 30+ years. I cant see these knee jerk moves being successful. So many different factors are coming into play that never existed when those regionals in the past died.

Unfortunately management doesn't typically follow logic. They follow whatever gets them the most money in the shortest time.

 

[J Cole]

That's some awful fuzzy math there. The numbers I used on rates currently were reported by ALPA. The throttling down was my estimate.

Even if it was three years, that doesn't mean we should sell our services for less when we can't staff what we have.
That's the single biggest point you're missing- we can't even get people to show up to class at the rates we're paying- letting the flow run at a constant rate would cripple an airline that is still currently a significant part of AA. Eagle can't just go away- if they do let everybody on property flow, they'd have to give incentive to enough people to replace us. You can't replace 3000 pilots overnight.

It took FIVE YEARS to shut down Comair. They were half our current size.

Well, you may have me on the fuzzy math, as it's mostly an educated guess. May I see the union source you're referring to?

At the same time, the future is full of fuzzy math as we simply don't know how fast things will flow out of here. Given what I understand, I think that 60/month is a realistic "most optimistic" number. Please do note the distinction.

That said, if I understand you correctly, you believe that the primary reason that AE can't fill classes is because of our low pay structure. I disagree with this contention. I do agree that pay does affect how many new hires we get, but I don't think its the main reason. (For instance, consider that the $5,000 signing bonus has not helped much.) Obviously, there are many large reasons why there is a pilot shortage right now (ATP, rest rules, student loans, lack of military pilots, etc. , etc.), but I think the main things that are driving applicants away from eagle are the lack of security and stability here. Applicants see eagle as a risky proposition. My argument has been that if the AIP had passed, it would have settled these issues of security and stability by providing new jets (and replacing the undesirable and unprofitable 50 seaters), providing flow through (that even if it didn't mean a quick flow at least provides a measure of security), and providing fleet protection (with the 170 aircraft guarantee). Obviously these sorts of theories are difficult to prove, and I'm sure there must be bits of truth to both sides. Part of my argument comes from my own observations as a recent new hire, so I suppose you could take it with a grain of salt. That said, I believe that there is strength to the argument that eagle's hiring woes stem primarily from problems with stability and an unsure future and that the AIP may have solved that problem and drawn considerable more new hires as a result.

 

[Firebird2XC]

Well, you may have me on the fuzzy math, as it's mostly an educated guess. May I see the union source you're referring to?

At the same time, the future is full of fuzzy math as we simply don't know how fast things will flow out of here. Given what I understand, I think that 60/month is a realistic "most optimistic" number. Please do note the distinction.

That said, if I understand you correctly, you believe that the primary reason that AE can't fill classes is because of our low pay structure. I disagree with this contention. I do agree that pay does affect how many new hires we get, but I don't think its the main reason. (For instance, consider that the $5,000 signing bonus has not helped much.) Obviously, there are many large reasons why there is a pilot shortage right now (ATP, rest rules, student loans, lack of military pilots, etc. , etc.), but I think the main things that are driving applicants away from eagle are the lack of security and stability here. Applicants see eagle as a risky proposition. My argument has been that if the AIP had passed, it would have settled these issues of security and stability by providing new jets (and replacing the undesirable and unprofitable 50 seaters), providing flow through (that even if it didn't mean a quick flow at least provides a measure of security), and providing fleet protection (with the 170 aircraft guarantee). Obviously these sorts of theories are difficult to prove, and I'm sure there must be bits of truth to both sides. Part of my argument comes from my own observations as a recent new hire, so I suppose you could take it with a grain of salt. That said, I believe that there is strength to the argument that eagle's hiring woes stem primarily from problems with stability and an unsure future and that the AIP may have solved that problem and drawn considerable more new hires as a result.

As to your first few sentences, Bill Sprague said it in one of the interviews he gave Thursday. Don't remember which one. Do your own homework.

The rest, tl;dr.

 

[MikeD]

As I've said in another thread, and it applies here: in the business of aviation, never say never. Anything and everything is possible at any given time, with or without prior notice.