Lates letter from the CEO of PNCL

I think it would be somewhat funny if say, the Wallstreet journal or some other financial paper happend upon the latest memo... then put out a smally story about Pinnacle Airlines Inc CEO Sean saying we were "headed for ch. 11" the funny part would be watching the stock fall rapidly, and, then the inevitable filling of ch.11

I really believe if you talk about it enough, publicly enough, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. If you tell enough people it is likely, then they will move to protect themselfs, which often is never good for the company trying to climb into the black.

Then again, right now I just prefer being treated like a mushroom.. gives me motive to leave - and thats prob a good thing.
 
Doug Taylor said:
Slight oversimplification.

Some of us are actively trying to, while not being completely negative, but realistic and trying to help the next generation from having to 're-invent the (logic) wheel' and are met with much consternation.

It's the classic saying of "bring a horse to water but you can't make him drink".
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"You can lead a child to knowledge, but you can't make him think"

Fixed it for you.

Lot's o newbs asking Richman for his great and impartial wisdom. Lot's o newbs getting their feetprints on Richman's lawn.

So very few listen.

You can all let yourselves out. Stay on the sidewalk.

Richman
 
Doug Taylor said:
Slight oversimplification.

Some of us are actively trying to, while not being completely negative, but realistic and trying to help the next generation from having to 're-invent the (logic) wheel' and are met with much consternation.

It's the classic saying of "bring a horse to water but you can't make him drink".

The problem is scope. Pure and simple. When you don't own the flying you're doing, you will face competitive pressures to keep costs low. But merely by saying "scope", you're going to upset those that are performing the subcontracted work. If I said, strongly, that "only Delta pilots on the Delta seniority list shall do Delta flying - end of story", how much hate mail do you think I would receive in my email box by monday morning? Loads.

Been there, done that.

When you do not "own" the flying, you have no negotiating leverage.

More simply put, you can have all of the guns, ammunition and sentry guns in your home, but unless you're able to perform something as simple as locking your front door, it's just a matter of time before your security is breached.
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Everyone I fly with keeps carrying on about a pilot shortage which is it's own topic obviously. The thing I keep telling them that I'm most afraid of if there is a shortage though is mainline guys giving up scope to move towards some pre-9/11 pay rates again. If I was a wreckless airline CEO I would be all over that because the more of the flying you can farm out to the regionals the more money you can make. Basically reduce the number of pilots the mainline carrier has to employe at roughly half the attrition rate so you hire less, get better margins on domestic flying, and throw a few pennies at the guys you already have so they keep their mouths shut. Everyone always just give me the blank stare though when I bring this up like they don't understand scope.
 
There may be a shortage. But the question is will it be a shortage of GOOD jobs or REGIONAL jobs. I think the AMR bankruptcy and restructuring as well as any merger that occur will determine that. Another issue is mainline may opt to reduce frequency and run larger aircraft on their routes rather than hire more. Instead of three 737s a day, they may run two 757s. That would reduce things a bit. If they do this in large scale, it would reduce things a lot. During the RJ boom, customers wanted frequency, which is what led to the prevalence of the RJs. Now they only care about ticket costs and plan their trips around that. The airlines can reduce frequency and not loose too many customers in the process.

Apparently, regionals will bid contracts at a loss now a days. Just look at Pinnacle with United.....
\
 
Trip7 said:
At the end of 2012 we will begin to see what the flight schools and Kit Darby have been preaching about
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Is that sarcasm? I can't see how a AA and a huge regional bankruptcy combined with $125 oil is going to be the beginning groundwork fer da piolit shortage.
 
I can see potential for a pilot shortage. Stuff keeps stacking up to allow for the shortage to occur.

1. There are lower amounts of student pilot certificates being issued each year.
2. Major airline retirements will produce movement within the regionals.
3. The ATP requirement will weed out a lot of the SJS crowd.
4. New rest rules require more pilots per airframe.

The odds are stacking up in favor of a shortage. However there are some actions that can be taken by the major airlines that would help relieve any shortage if it was to occur.

Although the possible makings of a shortage are around the corner I wouldn't base my actions on that possibility like the pilot mills and universities want.
 
Maurus said:
I can see potential for a pilot shortage. Stuff keeps stacking up to allow for the shortage to occur.

1. There are lower amounts of student pilot certificates being issued each year.
2. Major airline retirements will produce movement within the regionals.
3. The ATP requirement will weed out a lot of the SJS crowd.
4. New rest rules require more pilots per airframe.

The odds are stacking up in favor of a shortage. However there are some actions that can be taken by the major airlines that would help relieve any shortage if it was to occur.

Although the possible makings of a shortage are around the corner I wouldn't base my actions on that possibility like the pilot mills and universities want.
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That crowd will still be there. They will just take longer to get there.
 
It may be a poor analogy, but I think it is pretty accurate...Has there ever been a shortage of athletes at the highest level of professional sports? No...Will there ever be a shortage of qualified applicants at the "majors" in the airline industry...No. Even with all the aforementioned reasons and rationalizations of an impending "pilot shortage", it is a myth that has existed for the last 30 years...I am old enough to have witnessed this shortage never actually materialize. Unless there is some major change in how the airlines operate, there will continue to be far more applicants than there are positions at the majors...In fact, I think that the majors are just going to hire very many people at all and re-direct their efforts to continue consolidation at their level and pass on more of the feed to the "regional" (low-paying, competitive-bid, contract-based) sector. From a business perspective, it is a smart way to move forward. People need to wake-up and drop the entitlement mentality that they are going to trade-up their careers in this industry. I don't like it anymore than you, but you have to look at the industry as what it is...a business...If you really love flying, the airlines are not for you...
 
There will be no pilot shortage.

Southwest, UPS and Fed Ex have no problem finding qualified pilots when there is a need.

Why does, say, Pinnacolaba?

Let's compare and contrast, folks.




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The shortage will be at the regional level. Obviously regional airline pilots are pilots so that's why some say there will be a pilot shortage.

There has been a nursing shortage for quite sometime but I doubt John Hopkins Medical center is struggling to attract people.
 
That is IF we presume the last ten years of regional expansion lasts, which, at least on the Delta side is not the issue because there is an expanding net-loss of DCI airframes and no orders replacing the aircraft.

Now that's just Delta. I'd be interested to see the net-gain/loss at UAL, AMR (well, naturally that's up in the air) and USAirways.


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The question is, as always, how deep the mainline companies will have to dig into the talent pool to fulfill their hiring needs.

They've obviously dug fairly far in the past, what with guys like Doug getting hired :)
 
Delta et al will keep their regional's staffed by starting direct entry programs. they will find a way to bypass the recent laws with their financial influence in the washington and they will keep us all here while justifying direct entry pilots by saying they can train them the "delta way" from day one etc etc.

thats what i would do if i was a soulless businessman
 
There has never been nor will there ever be a pilot shortage. The only thing there will be is a shortage of people willing to put up with the crap wages and QOL that the regionals provide. The ATP rule will cut down the wet 250 hr CMEL wonders with SJS for a few years. Then again, they never should have been able to get a job at an airline in the first place. There are tons of experienced and furloughed pilots out there. None of them are willing to take a job at the clown show most of the airlines us regional pukes work at provide. Hell even military guys would rather put up with the ridiculous crap of active duty and deployments rather than get out and go to an airline. That tells you all you need to know about present day airlines.
 
jtrain609 said:
The question is, as always, how deep the mainline companies will have to dig into the talent pool to fulfill their hiring needs.

They've obviously dug fairly far in the past, what with guys like Doug getting hired :)
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AMMA CUT YOOOOOOO! ;)


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WIPilot said:
That crowd will still be there. They will just take longer to get there.
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You would be surprised how impatient some people can be. Also low time pilot jobs have been disappearing along with many people still not wanting to CFI for whatever reason. Motivation can easily die within that 1500 hours for a jet. My priorities changed by the time I hit 1500TT as I was looking for a good job instead of wanting to be in a jet.

The chance for a hiring spree will present itself, but the amount of pilots available to the airlines will be quite limited. Especially when the ATP rule finally hits. The regionals are doing a good job at drying out the well of high time pilots as they are already hiring at 500TT. When the ATP rule hits there wont be a dependable pool of ATP minimums pilots available to hire for at least a year.
 
Maurus said:
You would be surprised how impatient some people can be. Also low time pilot jobs have been disappearing along with many people still not wanting to CFI for whatever reason. Motivation can easily die within that 1500 hours for a jet. My priorities changed by the time I hit 1500TT as I was looking for a good job instead of wanting to be in a jet.

The chance for a hiring spree will present itself, but the amount of pilots available to the airlines will be quite limited. Especially when the ATP rule finally hits. The regionals are doing a good job at drying out the well of high time pilots as they are already hiring at 500TT. When the ATP rule hits there wont be a dependable pool of ATP minimums pilots available to hire for at least a year.
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We're not taking people out of the pool until they hit 1,200 hours. So interview at whatever, but you won't be put in class until 1,200 hours right now. I have to imagine that will hit 1,500 hours eventually.
 
jtrain609 said:
We're not taking people out of the pool until they hit 1,200 hours. So interview at whatever, but you won't be put in class until 1,200 hours right now. I have to imagine that will hit 1,500 hours eventually.
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That is a good move by XJT.
 
jtrain609 said:
We're not taking people out of the pool until they hit 1,200 hours. So interview at whatever, but you won't be put in class until 1,200 hours right now. I have to imagine that will hit 1,500 hours eventually.
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That sounds a lot like planning for the future. Who does that? Though there maybe plenty of 1500 plus hour applicants here pretty soon with 121 experience....
 
jtrain609 said:
We're not taking people out of the pool until they hit 1,200 hours. So interview at whatever, but you won't be put in class until 1,200 hours right now. I have to imagine that will hit 1,500 hours eventually.
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We have no pool. 44 slots for classes in March, April and May. They are interviewing today for the march class. Apparently they wanted 18 for march, but only have 6.
 
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