kellwolf
Piece of Trash
You're also assuming that all airline pilots WANT to work until they're 65 as well as all airline pilots are ABLE to work until 65, neither of which is 100% true. I'm not so sure it will "kill hiring at the majors" as most people. IMO, the main reason it's being pushed is to help along the guys that had the rug pulled out from under them on pensions and retirement in the past several years. Personally, if I can retire at 55-60, I'm doing it. If it's between hanging at home or travelling and hotels at O dark thirty in the morning to fly a 6 leg day, it's a no brainer for me. I agree with you on jetBlue not being as stable as it once was, but I think SWA is gonna continue at a slow growth pace, or worst case scenario, maintain what they have. They've got killer retirement benefits there, so I seriously doubt most of the pilots there will hang on until they're 65. The ones I knew when I worked in MCO sure as heck didn't. Most retired at 55 if not sooner.
You also have to take into account that not ALL of the movement at the regional level is driven by retirements at the major level. Look at the growth at the regional level in the past year. Mesaba's getting 30+ new airplanes, PCL's getting Delta flying, XJT's getting Delta flying, Skywest snagged several contracts as well as Republic. Even Colgan is getting new turboprops. Now, either that's straight up growth or a reduction of jobs at the major level. Either way, it's not an upstream flow generating the job growth.
In addition, we're seeing fewer people entering the career field due to high costs. There just aren't as many guys that want to spend that much money for a low paying job at the regionals. That's going to affect the hiring as well.
