How low before the skid stops?

TheOneMarine

Well-Known Member
How low do you folks think oil needs to go before this current skid ends? Or will it ever? I ask because of the $9 bbl decline the last two days (Even though I think it's just a hiccup).
 

surreal1221

Well-Known Member
The skid has stopped. I think.

It'll remain at current levels until the summer season is complete, and the threat of gulf coast refining disruptions subside, along with the end of China's happy go lucky Olympics that they shouldn't even have had. But whatever, give the Olympics to developing countries who are then going to suck up all the global resources just to build the infrastructures required to host such an event. Then, when the event is over, they have all of these structures and have wasted and driven world economies into the crapper.

All for a Global Sporting Event. How amazing.

$100/bbl (+/-$20) by the end of the year though as the bubble pops, following the continued demand destruction and the end of subsidies from developing countries to their citizens, who will then be forced to pay full fare. Such is life.
 

Derg

New Arizona, Il Duce/Warlord
Staff member
How low do you folks think oil needs to go before this current skid ends? Or will it ever? I ask because of the $9 bbl decline the last two days (Even though I think it's just a hiccup).
The industry lags the economy.

The airlines the triple whammy of:

1. High oil prices
2. A umm, dang, now if I say "recession" someone's going to argue that we're in the midst of a robust economy, but well shoot. Umm, "People aren't buying stuff they way they were a few years ago" for whatever reason.
3. Consumers hooked on low-priced (notice I didn't say "cost") travel services.

I'm probably wrong, and I'm man enough to accept that but if oil went down to $80/bbl, I don't think it would immediately turn around the airline business because even $80/bbl oil pretty much wrecks the industries domestic model.
 

NickH

Uber Driver
I'm probably wrong, and I'm man enough to accept that but if oil went down to $80/bbl, I don't think it would immediately turn around the airline business because even $80/bbl oil pretty much wrecks the industries domestic model.
See, this is the thing. People ask how high the price can go before the airlines go bankrupt, but the real issue is duration, as much as anything else. The airlines could survive $200 a barrel provided it's temporary, but $80+ long term is enough to kill them. Unless the price makes a fairly dramatic downward turn, that lag is going to catch up.
 

Derg

New Arizona, Il Duce/Warlord
Staff member
Worst part is that there's not even a shortage of oil.

There's just the "threat" of a shortage of oil.

Until we're restricted to half-tanks, have to fill up on even/odd days depending on your license plate and there are lines out the ying-yang for service stations that are still open, it's allllll speculation on what's going to probably happen as opposed to what is happening.

But still a fantastic time to find some method to decouple America's economic viability from crude oil.
 

Hootie

Old Skool
No time soon. I was talking to a United pilot who told me that they are telling those furloughed (at united) to seek other employment and not to expect a callback ever because things have changed permanently.
 

wheelsup

Well-Known Member
Worst part is that there's not even a shortage of oil.

There's just the "threat" of a shortage of oil.

Until we're restricted to half-tanks, have to fill up on even/odd days depending on your license plate and there are lines out the ying-yang for service stations that are still open, it's allllll speculation on what's going to probably happen as opposed to what is happening.

But still a fantastic time to find some method to decouple America's economic viability from crude oil.
If American refiners hadn't purchased oil on the open market for market prices, there would be a shortage of gasoline.

The entire commodities market is speculation, it's always been that way. By the very definition of speculation, they are guessing at what prices will be down the line.
 

flyviper

Well-Known Member
The skid has stopped. I think.

It'll remain at current levels until the summer season is complete, and the threat of gulf coast refining disruptions subside, along with the end of China's happy go lucky Olympics that they shouldn't even have had. But whatever, give the Olympics to developing countries who are then going to suck up all the global resources just to build the infrastructures required to host such an event. Then, when the event is over, they have all of these structures and have wasted and driven world economies into the crapper.

All for a Global Sporting Event. How amazing.

$100/bbl (+/-$20) by the end of the year though as the bubble pops, following the continued demand destruction and the end of subsidies from developing countries to their citizens, who will then be forced to pay full fare. Such is life.
Wow, I can't believe you actually wrote this...another "We in the USA can have all we want but expect others to have far less type" The US is not the only country in the world buddy!!!
 

Airdale

Well-Known Member
Wow, I can't believe you actually wrote this...another "We in the USA can have all we want but expect others to have far less type" The US is not the only country in the world buddy!!!
Don't like the USA, get out. Simple really.

This is the only country I care about. I agree with my fellow military member.
 

surreal1221

Well-Known Member
HOORAY!

I actually plan to leave the country at some point, but until then. . .we need to look out for ourselves and not China and India, or Israel for that matter. Sorry.
 

VF-213

New Member
Off on a tangent but wow..... please don't confuse Nationalism for Patriotism.... As a former military officer and Academy grad a lot of emphasis is placed on teaching our future military leaders the checkered history of blind Nationalism.
This is a global village...
 

Airdale

Well-Known Member
I actually plan to leave the country at some point, but until then. . .we need to look out for ourselves and not China and India, or Israel for that matter. Sorry.
Exactly.


You can boohoo my post all you want, but I'm sick of so many US dollars going to benefit other countries when our own country is in a landslide.
 

granlistillo

Well-Known Member
Off on a tangent but wow..... please don't confuse Nationalism for Patriotism.... As a former military officer and Academy grad a lot of emphasis is placed on teaching our future military leaders the checkered history of blind Nationalism.
This is a global village...
Nice job! I am learning not to respond to ignorance, as I am not skillful enough to reason with them.

On the other hand I think ringknockerism is a much more serious threat than blind nationalism.
 
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