The other variable is that they can monitor the quality of instruction given. From hard experience, I know that varies widely and has a very large input on training costs.
Just hazarding a guess, but look for the larger GA training ops <cough>atp</cough> to start specializing this way.
I agree with you that they would be able to control the quality of instruction...IF the program is managed correctly. A large airline that would go this route has a vested interest in making sure the right management team oversees the program and makes sure the quality is what they are looking for. More than likely it would be managed correctly and I am not sure why I posted this thought...seems like it may not matured enough before being spit out.
The location I'm in now has a lack of management and the only reason the students get decent training is because we know they will be entering US or European airspace in the next teen years. The lack of oversight means we, as the instructors, could do whatever we want, such as ignoring aircraft limitations, but we won't allow the students to do that. Now I am not saying that a program like what we are talking about would allow that, just that the right type of management can make a huge difference.
I don't know if ATP would make the jump to do this. There is a profit to be made (by ATP) in that niche and they market it very well (I would know). If an airline created, or tasked an outside company to create, an "Ab Initio Academy", would it be as has been stated above:
-All those who pay to play but don't finish training, $ to the airline.
-All those who finish training then fly at a reduced salary, $ to the airline.
-Those who don't stay long enough and pay loan interest, $ to the airline
I wonder if an ATP like company could make a profit from the Airline parent company in a situation like this. I think I agree with
seaav8tor in that it would be in the interest of the airline to go this route and not contract it out.
I am probably wrong though and a business model is already being grown/hatched/planned as we speak that will put us all out of business in two to three years. I think that is what frightens me the most, if this comes to the US, then it would be 2-3 years and you would have to enter the "program" to get a job at an airline-big/small/ regional/LLC. What the hell are we going to do then?