Furlough Estimates

[Avalon781ML]

No. Exactly none of them are doing that. They are all not sure how fast the recovery will be so they are working out the cheapest option to keep crews spooled up so they can be the first to restore capacity if there is a quick recovery.

I think regardless of who wins this election most if not all airlines will not recover to pre covid levels until at least 2022 (or possibly 2023). Looking at the national debt level, the 10 year yield, unemployment numbers, dwindling manufacturing, and worldwide economic state I wish I could say I were hopeful for a relatively quick snap back to what we remembered to be “normal.” I fear that carriers keeping crews “spooled up” will be detrimental to their recovery in the long term.
In my opinion the carrier that cuts the most now will be around for when the recovery actual happens. Those that don’t risk ceasing to exist. I just hope we don’t see the nationalization of air carriers in this country... I think the ramifications would be far worse than a severe recession.

 

[Dphoenix]

Are we talking pre covid levels 2014, or pre covid levels 2019? Cause 2019 was a banner year and that'll take a bit. But... the airlines made money in 2014, too. I think we can hit that level reasonably quick *if* the vaccine is 70%+ effective. If it's a 50% vaccine... and requires a 6 month booster... um.. danger will robinson.

 

[Avalon781ML]

Are we talking pre covid levels 2014, or pre covid levels 2019? Cause 2019 was a banner year and that'll take a bit. But... the airlines made money in 2014, too. I think we can hit that level reasonably quick *if* the vaccine is 70%+ effective. If it's a 50% vaccine... and requires a 6 month booster... um.. danger will robinson.

Therein lies the rub... without a CARES 2.0 I don’t think they will all make it... but with continued bailouts to the major industries (think energy, manufacturing, banks, aviation, etc) I don’t think this country will keep its head above the bankruptcy waterline. Vaccine or not (regardless of efficacy) some airlines won’t exist in the future (either through mergers or shutdowns). Our national financial status is gangrenous and hacking off a limb is going to be quite painful but is necessary for the survival of the rest of the body.

 

[Dphoenix]

I mean, the 27 bil for airlines is a drop in the bucket compared to the $934 billion we're going to spend this year on the military.

Why U.S. Military Spending Is More Than You Think It Is

U.S. military spending is $934 billion for FY 2021 once you add components hidden in other budgets. Here's the breakout since 2003.

www.thebalance.com

We could go to even 2008 George W Bush levels and be just fine. Imagine what we could do with that money domestically to get our economy going.

 

[Avalon781ML]

I mean, the 27 bil for airlines is a drop in the bucket compared to the $934 billion we're going to spend this year on the military.

Why U.S. Military Spending Is More Than You Think It Is

U.S. military spending is $934 billion for FY 2021 once you add components hidden in other budgets. Here's the breakout since 2003.

www.thebalance.com

We could go to even 2008 George W Bush levels and be just fine. Imagine what we could do with that money domestically to get our economy going.

No argument from me... spending needs to be cut across the board in a very serious manner.

 

[Dphoenix]

We could also maybe tax a lil bit of the 637 billion that our billionaires have made since the pandemic started. It's more a revenue problem than a spending problem right now. Of course, tricky when a lot of it is in stock.

 

[Avalon781ML]

We could also maybe tax a lil bit of the 637 billion that our billionaires have made since the pandemic started. It's more a revenue problem than a spending problem right now. Of course, tricky when a lot of it is in stock.

We already do when they sell... and a lot of the “paper gains” might turn into actual losses when this is all said and done.
I think it’s more of a widespread spending issue more so than a revenue issue... our govt spends more than it brings in and so do most Americans. We can’t spend more than we make forever lest the compounding interest eat us alive.

 

[Roger Roger]

I was more thinking the narrator in Arrested Development...

But everyone knew he didn't.

When they make the documentary of the downfall of the United States (beginning in 2020) it needs to be narrated by that guy.

 

[jynxyjoe]

When they make the documentary of the downfall of the United States (beginning in 2020) it needs to be narrated by that guy.

Morgan freeman looking at camera discussing race relation breakdowns: "I'd like to tell you everyone learned and the police stopped bullying and shooting black people. I'd like to tell you that..."

 

[Roger Roger]

Morgan freeman looking at camera discussing race relation breakdowns: "I'd like to tell you everyone learned and the police stopped bullying and shooting black people. I'd like to tell you that..."

Those 15 will soon be down to zero
Narrator: in fact, those 15 would not soon be down to zero.
We have a new health care plan ready to go!
Narrator: his new healthcare plan was, in fact, a Big Mac wrapper with “Obama Sucks” written in black sharpie.

 

[jynxyjoe]

Those 15 will soon be down to zero
Narrator: in fact, those 15 would not soon be down to zero.
We have a new health care plan ready to go!
Narrator: his new healthcare plan was, in fact, a Big Mac wrapper with “Obama Sucks” written in black sharpie.

I have the BEST IDEAS!
Narrator:they weren't the best ideas

Narrator: and he woke up early to watch the pee tape again and post more bad ideas on twitter.

 

[CFIT99]

Those 15 will soon be down to zero
Narrator: in fact, those 15 would not soon be down to zero.
We have a new health care plan ready to go!
Narrator: his new healthcare plan was, in fact, a Big Mac wrapper with “Obama Sucks” written in black sharpie.

I read this in Morgan Freeman's voice....then I remembered that it is completely possible to fall in the realm of possibility....*sigh*

 

[Roger Roger]

I read this in Morgan Freeman's voice....then I remembered that it is completely possible to fall in the realm of possibility....*sigh*

It’s a tossup, maybe Freeman and Howard can trade off narrating scenes

 

[jynxyjoe]

It’s a tossup, maybe Freeman and Howard can trade off narrating scenes

Peoples choice, national vote. "Who would you rather have narrate the world at its lowest point?" Then let then know its a day by day accounting of 2020.

Early money on Freeman, i associate his voice with more hope.

 

[Autothrust Blue]

First born child, kill all the puppies in your neighborhood, sacrifice grandma to volcano, 24 hour notification for reserve assignment, atomic wedgie for each month you stay employeed after nov

That's indoc there, not the TA, right?

 

[BigZ]

Early money on Freeman, i associate his voice with more hope.

Samuel L. Jackson.
Know what L. stands for? Exactly.

 

[jynxyjoe]

Samuel L. Jackson.
Know what L. stands for? Exactly.

Lord.

You know his friends call him Sammy? First of all, thats Samuel L Jackson, thats his damn name. Secondly, he's trying to be the good shepard.

Third, there is no third. He is Samuel L Jackson.

My whole world would fly apart if he was like, "okay okay, just call me sammy ok?"

 

[BigZ]

Lord.

You know his friends call him Sammy? First of all, thats Samuel L Jackson, thats his damn name. Secondly, he's trying to be the good shepard.

Third, there is no third. He is Samuel L Jackson.

My whole world would fly apart if he was like, "okay okay, just call me sammy ok?"

You lost your ways, @jynxyjoe
L stands for M.............r, everyone knows that.

 

[jynxyjoe]

You lost your ways, @jynxyjoe
L stands for M.............r, everyone knows that.

Lol, i know but i recently watched pulp fiction and the way he says "Lord" in the windup speech... He deserves all the money, all the actor parts.

 

[tcco94]

Damn, feels like everytime we pull this thread out somehow the topic sways back to airlines going under, losing airlines, and the potential for me to not go back to flying post-furlough. Depressing times for this community. Still love y'all. I don't know why though.