Five year outlook

FlyingFireman

New Member
Hello all,

Student pilot going my my PPL, almost ready for the checkride. I want to switch into a career flying professionally, but I want to take me time, stay out of debt, and keep my family in tact while I work through a career switch. I am in a good job now, make good money, and am getting all ratings through the flying club I am in at a much reduced price. I hope to have my private finished in a month, and then my instrument finished up in 6-8 months. After that I'll contiue to work on Comm,ME,CFI etc. I wanted to hear some opinions on what the industry might look like in a few years (3-5) and about what inidications I should use to determine when it's time to jump in with both feet. I realize its extremely cyclical, however how do you realize when the right end of the cycle is here?? Thanks for the input!

Mark
 

surreal1221

Well-Known Member
Just look back over the past 5 years. . .and it'll be a repeat, with some slight variations on who is hiring and who is not, the price of a specific raw good, and the number of companies out of business.

Good luck.
 

mooneyguy

been around forever
IMHO, I think right now is the time to be training! If you study the business side of the industry the forecast is STILL for enormous growth. As soon as the airlines stop playing musical chairs and the economy starts to settle down (which should start after the election) things will begin a turnaround. Those people who are ready for the next hiring wave (again imo) around 1-2 years from now will be in a great place. You want to be in the leading edge of the hiring cycle not the trailing edge.
 

Murdoughnut

Well sized member
Haven't heard any blurbs from Kit Darby lately - what's he saying right now? He called the last hiring boom.
 

moocowtex

Well-Known Member
Haven't heard any blurbs from Kit Darby lately - what's he saying right now? He called the last hiring boom.
If he didn't perpetually call for hiring booms, wouldn't FAPA (or whatever his company is called nowadays) be out of business in short order?
 

Matt13C

Well-Known Member
IMHO, I think right now is the time to be training! If you study the business side of the industry the forecast is STILL for enormous growth. As soon as the airlines stop playing musical chairs and the economy starts to settle down (which should start after the election) things will begin a turnaround. Those people who are ready for the next hiring wave (again imo) around 1-2 years from now will be in a great place. You want to be in the leading edge of the hiring cycle not the trailing edge.
WOO HOO:nana2::nana2: I hope your estimation is correct, will put me in the perfect position. Hopefully will finish up my IR rating in a few months then onto time building over the winter on weekends and nights for the comm start of next spring. Then CFI.

I can't decide when to do the ME though. Seems pointless to do it before I get my Comm SEL, I don't have access to a multi unless I pay for time after that. But if I don't have the rating along with the comm for it, makes it hard to get a job flying a twin. Any input?
 

upup89

Well-Known Member
Seems like the only people ever saying there is going to be a pilot shortage are the ones that have something to gain from people training. That being said. Aviation isn't really something to get into because you think the job outlook is good. Gotta have a passion for it, otherwise I don't know if I could take this roller coaster ride.
 

bike21

9-5 Ruins Lives
For those of you who are training now or just starting to build hours, hang in there. You will be likely well positioned for the next upswing. When it starts, some current furloughs and other experienced types will probably take first dibs. However with the growth still forecasted to be huge (especially on a global scale) ya'll will have jobs pretty quick.

When the economy hits the next inevitable upswing times will be good. For awhile :)
 

Murdoughnut

Well sized member
If he didn't perpetually call for hiring booms, wouldn't FAPA (or whatever his company is called nowadays) be out of business in short order?
Actually you might argue that his business would increase during times like this - if I remember, doesn't he help applicants make it to the airlines? Lot harder to do that right now. I'm sure GIA's business is up Y/Y as well.
 

HeyEng

NAHB Doesn't Give a Crap
I really don't think that there is a good way to gauge what the future holds. Take a look how the industry absolutely took a crap...and it happened just about overnight. People are happy today that Colgan is hiring again, but just a few short months ago, you would be laughed at for going there (not by all, but many!). It is smart to go at it slow and cheap...and the FBO way is a good way to do it. I think it IS prudent to get all the ratings up through the MEI so if and when then flood gates open back up, you'll be ahead of the game. Again, all this is just my opinion.
 

Polar742

All the responsibility none of the authority
I started my training back when the real last disaster happened. It was in 92. My first flight instructor was a Captain from Midway Airlines who couldn't find a job. He was flight instructing during the day and throwing boxes at FDX at night. The market was in dregs.

I get out of college in '98 and I walked into a 121 job with low time.

It's a gamble bro, but you can't win if you don't play.

BTW, I concur with Mooneyguy's assessment
 

Derg

New Arizona, Il Duce/Warlord
Staff member
Hello all,

Student pilot going my my PPL, almost ready for the checkride. I want to switch into a career flying professionally, but I want to take me time, stay out of debt, and keep my family in tact while I work through a career switch. I am in a good job now, make good money, and am getting all ratings through the flying club I am in at a much reduced price. I hope to have my private finished in a month, and then my instrument finished up in 6-8 months. After that I'll contiue to work on Comm,ME,CFI etc. I wanted to hear some opinions on what the industry might look like in a few years (3-5) and about what inidications I should use to determine when it's time to jump in with both feet. I realize its extremely cyclical, however how do you realize when the right end of the cycle is here?? Thanks for the input!

Mark
Very hard to predict, but I will say that those that are highly motivated, make the right connections and keep a good attitude will succeed in any market and in any profession. Take a peek at Amorris.

If you're not quite sure, there's nothing wrong with flying for pleasure.

You've really got to ask yourself, "What will I regret more? Getting involved in professional aviation and all of it's ups and downs or NOT getting involved in professional aviation in spite of it's ups and downs."
 
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