FAA's Student Pilot Starts

BillErvin

BillErvin

Peddling as fast as I can
I was reading a article in AOPA on Student pilot starts It popped into my little pea brain " I wonder if the FAA sorts out foreign student pilots that don't stick around after they get their FAA certificates.

In the FAA aerospace forecast, student pilot starts in 2009 were estimated at 72,280 which is down from 08 starts of 80,989. 2010 forecast is only 70,700 starts.

Keeping in mind all the foreign students in flight academies out there. My questions for the general populace on the forum is this:

1. What kind of statistical anomaly do the foreign student pilots bring to the forecast?

2. How much does it skew the numbers?

3. What do you think the actual US student pilot starts are


For the record, I'm not bashing foreign students. Hell, I may be making a living off them soon.
 
In 2006, the fall granted, the four schools I interviewed prior to deciding where I was going to do my post-private training, they had an average domestic student population of only 25%.

I'd say, of those numbers, 50% are domestic, and of those, maybe 30% will actually complete their private, with 20% going towards a commercial.
 
surreal1221 said:
In 2006, the fall granted, the four schools I interviewed prior to deciding where I was going to do my post-private training, they had an average domestic student population of only 25%.

I'd say, of those numbers, 50% are domestic, and of those, maybe 30% will actually complete their private, with 20% going towards a commercial.
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and you lost me after I read 10% percent of your post.:D nah i kidd i kidd. Those are some alarming stats. What does that mean for the industry and other jobs like 121, 135? Less applicants in the future?
 
I don't know if it really skews he numbers too badly, but my view of the training world is quite skewed from the costal accelerated guys.

I am sure there are a couple thousand foreign kids, but there are also a loooot of mom-n-pop shops.

In nearly three years, I have never had one in the two places I've worked.


edit: do you know how many people finished their ppl in those years?
 
The forecast doesn't break down PPL starts only total numbers, although that would be interesting to see as well.

I guess you might be able to get close be using last years numbers and comparing to this years. But the forecast is based on pilots with current medicals

So after five or six years the foreign students may drop off the roles and pilot numbers will really drop down.
 
BillErvin said:
I was reading a article in AOPA on Student pilot starts It popped into my little pea brain " I wonder if the FAA sorts out foreign student pilots that don't stick around after they get their FAA certificates.

In the FAA aerospace forecast, student pilot starts in 2009 were estimated at 72,280 which is down from 08 starts of 80,989. 2010 forecast is only 70,700 starts.

Keeping in mind all the foreign students in flight academies out there. My questions for the general populace on the forum is this:

1. What kind of statistical anomaly do the foreign student pilots bring to the forecast?

2. How much does it skew the numbers?

3. What do you think the actual US student pilot starts are


For the record, I'm not bashing foreign students. Hell, I may be making a living off them soon.
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Domestic students in San Antonio are very very few. Foreign students are the ONLY reason we have business. One school has almost completely shut down (from 5 planes down to one). They never had foreign students.

One other school recently told the few domestic students they had that they would not be able to help them any longer. They are now 100% chinese. The couple of domestic students at my school are older (50+) wanting to get their PPL. NO domestic career pilots.
As a freelance CFI I have 1 career minded student.
Most of the younger people I'm meeting who have an interesting in aviation are looking to go military.

I don't have stats, but from what I see daily, there is little domestic activity.
 
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/2008/

Follow the above link to the FAA website and you will find all sorts of good stats. Looks like about 10,000 initial CFI certificates issued in 2008 while there were 20,000 commercial certificates. Based off these numbers I'd guess that most of the 10,000 CFI initial certs were earned by Americans. I work at a school that specializes in foreign training and the majority of the students will return to their home countries after earning their commercial cert. So that's my guess. About 10,000 serious newbees entering the American Pilot workforce in 2008 and probably less in 2009 and 2010. So maybe someday there will be demand for us suckers. Keep livin the dream!
 
See where I'm from all the training I see is domestic. But I'm in ohio lol. I think the number of GA pilots will conitue to decrease. But I am hopeful it will start to level off and maybe in the future gain again. I think LSA and experimental aircraft are the future or GA though. I can see companies like Cessna and Piper stop making GA aircraft at some point in the future due to lack of demand because of massive amounts of used aircraft out there making buying a new one just a bad decision.
 
In our class of 2006, 40 people enrolled, now we have only 5 commercial pilots and two cfi's from our class, I will be the third. Everybody else washed out or still trying to ge their ppl. This should put it to prespective in the local context but I believe the trend is the same everywhere. Here is the twist though, there is allready 50 people enrolled for the fall 2010 class.
 
ahsmatt7 said:
and you lost me after I read 10% percent of your post.:D nah i kidd i kidd. Those are some alarming stats. What does that mean for the industry and other jobs like 121, 135? Less applicants in the future?
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It means all our jobs are being insourced.
 
Just estimating the number of foreign students getting an SPL in Arizona between the major international schools, I come up with about 1100 - 1300/year. (Transpac 400, The Artist Formerly Known as Sabena 400, Lufthansa 200, Oxford 100, West Wind 50? UND's new Chinese program ~ 50, others scattered around the state ~ 50)

Most students in European programs who start with an SPL will never get a PPL. They return to their home country with their logbooks and endorsements and take their check ride. All of this pays the bills for a few hundred instructors, mechanics, etc. As much hassle as they cause for weekend warriors (and vice-verse I might add), our industry would be far worse without these foreign students.
 
Douglas said:
I don't know if it really skews he numbers too badly, but my view of the training world is quite skewed from the costal accelerated guys.

I am sure there are a couple thousand foreign kids, but there are also a loooot of mom-n-pop shops.

In nearly three years, I have never had one in the two places I've worked.
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:yeahthat:

I can count on one hand the number of foreign students I've trained in the 5+ years I've been teaching.

Nobody knows what will happen in the future. I'm very optimistic though. I think the best years of aviation are still to come.
 
I don't particularly care about "student pilot starts". I think what matters are "student pilot finishes". Historically, a large number of people who start training to become pilots end up quitting for one reason or another. What has happened to the ratio of people who start to the people who finish?
 
correct me if I'm wrong, but I remember seeing a chart once with new student pilot starts and it seemed to have peaked in the late 70s with close to 200,000. Was that the height of general aviation in this country?
 
SurfandSun said:
Looks like about 10,000 initial CFI certificates issued in 2008 while there were 20,000 commercial certificates. ...... So that's my guess. About 10,000 serious newbees entering the American Pilot workforce in 2008 and probably less in 2009 and 2010.
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I think that's probably a pretty close to reality.

As far as PPLs issued, I'd guess it's at least 50% forgein students.
 
jrh said:
:yeahthat:

I can count on one hand the number of foreign students I've trained in the 5+ years I've been teaching.

Nobody knows what will happen in the future. I'm very optimistic though. I think the best years of aviation are still to come.
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From what I've seen here in Florida, most of the larger schools have a large majority of foreign students, and I know in Texas its pretty much the same. Admittedly, in the short run its good for those who make their living flying, less pilots, more jobs, higher pay. But in the long run for the industry (particularly the GA side of the house) who knows.:confused:
 
USMCmech said:
I think that's probably a pretty close to reality.

As far as PPLs issued, I'd guess it's at least 50% forgein students.
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That would be my guess as well, also because the FAA seems to uses a current medical as their measure for active pilots, the longer medical periods are going to skew the numbers again. (At least for you youngsters:D)

The total "active" pilot population for 2010 is forecast at 585,645, that's down from 594,285 in 2009, thats about a 12% replacement rate if you assume all students finish. With the overall pilot population aging is that going to keep up with those leaving the industry.

If half the starts are foreign students that puts the US starts at 35 to 40k if that number goes down even further with only a small percentage competing certificates through commercial and CFI with the intent of flying a shiny jet.... well you see where I'm going.

Just food for thought.:dunno:

Most have their own reasons for wanting the overall pilot population dwindle, but in the end will that spell bad things for aviation in general in the US.
 
In the DFW area, the schools that have a strong influx of foreign students are staying afloat, while the ones who don't have immigration approval or very little foreign students seem to be studying.

When the domestic market gets weak like it has, the foreign market helps to keep things running.
 
BillErvin said:
Most have their own reasons for wanting the overall pilot population dwindle, but in the end will that spell bad things for aviation in general in the US.
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I think there's definitely a good and bad side to it - but in the short term, here's why I think it's a good thing.

As I've said on here before, 20-30 years ago it was very reasonable for a middle class individual to earn a pilot's license and purchase an aircraft for personal or business use. The strength of our GA airports was based on the support of these individuals who helped maintain demand for the system.

Fast forward to today - what does a new 172 cost? $250-$300k? No middle class individual can afford that, unless they can really cook the books tax wise and use it as a business expense. To find an aircraft a middle class guy can afford, you have to go back to at least the early 80s.

My hope is that with the drop off in new pilots, we'll see already declining aircraft prices continue to decline. I'm always browsing myself, and have noticed a move in that direction. The 172 my club paid $70k for two years ago would probably go for closer to $55-$60k today. While a brand new Cirrus will set you back nearly half a million, a nice, well equipped and fast '01 model can be had for $125k, which for a business person, would be a much more reasonable price point.

Aircraft need to be within reach of pilots before we can expect them to continue their studies. LSA has helped this, but there's not a lot of utility to LSA aircraft for most people. Fewer pilots means lowering aircraft costs, which may in turn, lead more to continue their ratings and use the GA system as a resource.
 
BillErvin said:
From what I've seen here in Florida, most of the larger schools have a large majority of foreign students, and I know in Texas its pretty much the same. Admittedly, in the short run its good for those who make their living flying, less pilots, more jobs, higher pay. But in the long run for the industry (particularly the GA side of the house) who knows.:confused:
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But that's my point...Florida and Texas aren't representative of the whole US. There are a ton of smaller schools across the country that don't have any foreign students.

I see all kinds of cool things happening around me in the GA world, as well. New aircraft have amazing technology and are better designed than ever. I demo'd a Diamond DA40 with a sales rep yesterday, and wow, what a plane!

I also received a survey yesterday from some investors wanting feedback on building a new grass strip a few miles away from me. Needless to say, I responded that I'm in full support. Who knows if it will happen or not, but the fact that it's being discussed is great news. People around me are optimistic.

I've got money in the bank, just waiting to get burned out my C-140's exhaust pipes as soon as I get a weekend with decent weather. I know several pilots in similar spots.

People are upgrading planes, too. One of our customers sold his 206 a few months ago and is almost ready to take delivery of a turbine 210 with the Silver Eagle conversion.

The ramp at work is consistently full. We have several clients at my flight school who are actively shopping for aircraft. For that matter, the flight school just had the busiest March in the four year history of the school--and not by just a few hours. It was a 50% increase over typical spring flying, and I'm projecting continued growth into the summer.

Maybe I'm out of touch with reality because I'm in Nebraska...after all, Nebraska was one of the states least affected by the recession. Still, I'm very excited for the future. People talk about GA dying, but I don't see that trend around here.

And honestly, I don't care much about the airline world. Of course I'd like it to do well, but I don't follow it closely. I'm not pushing for any pilot shortage or whatever...I'm not hoping for fewer jobs in the hope of demanding more pay for my flying.

I care the most about GA industry. That's where I make my living and I'm not super concerned about anything at the moment.
 
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