Even Vegas is weighing in on the shortage

Soku39 said:
Dude the entire point of capitalism is to become more efficient, and create higher profits. The number one expenditure for most companies is payroll. If you have the ability in the not so distant future to get rid of your largest expenditure, as a company why would you not do it? The goodness of their hearts, like you really believe that?
Click to expand...

I don't believe that businesses will become so concerned with efficiency that they cut the expenditure of labor costs all together. This will cause a chain reaction in the communities they are conducting business in, causing an economic failure which in turn will cause the failure of their company as a final result of no one able to spend money on the goods they produce...
 
JDean3204 said:
I don't believe that businesses will be come so concerned with efficiency that they cut the expenditure of labor costs all together. This will cause a chain reaction in the communities they are conducting business in, causing an economic failure which in turn will cause the failure of their company as a final result of no one able to spend money on the goods they produce...
Click to expand...

In a rational long term thinking market I would 100% agree with you. However we live in the era of monthly profit projections and quarterly earnings reports above ALL else. If I learned anything from the '08 housing collapse and the election of Donald effing Trump, it's that high finance, government and the uneducated will cut their nose off to spite their face every single time. There is nothing rational happening in Silicone Valley or Wall Street, but you can bet they're gunning to disrupt and gut every industry in existence in the name of profit. Pandora's box has already been opened. Driving a truck or taxi cab professionally will not exist in 5 years and that's just the beginning.
 
JDean3204 said:
I don't believe that businesses will be come so concerned with efficiency that they cut the expenditure of labor costs all together. This will cause a chain reaction in the communities they are conducting business in, causing an economic failure which in turn will cause the failure of their company as a final result of no one able to spend money on the goods they produce...
Click to expand...

I assure you, they are already that concerned with efficiency. That is how you increase profits as a business. And they would continue making these increasing profits if they were the only company to improve efficiency, but what you mention will happen since everyone will be doing it. It won't really affect the owners of these businesses though. In recent years the rich have seen their wealth increase much more rapidly than the rest of society, and this trend will only accelerate as technological advances make their businesses more efficient and reduce their labor costs. By the time this becomes an issue they will have saved up enough wealth and own enough capital, enough of those marvelous robots/ computers that will produce everything, that they will no longer need customers. If my predictions come true the rich will pretty much have Heaven on Earth, with the whole world to themselves (now that the proletariat have all been interned in camps or killed for revolting), amazing technology to provide for their every need and want, and no more proletariat to deal with. Society will consist only of wealthy, mostly very intelligent people and they won't have to deal with ordinary people or heaven forfend "bat crap crazy" people like me any more. This will also solve any issues related to overpopulation and stop climate change in its tracks since less people means less pollution.
 
Soku39 said:
In a rational long term thinking market I would 100% agree with you. However we live in the era of monthly profit projections and quarterly earnings reports above ALL else. If I learned anything from the '08 housing collapse and the election of Donald effing Trump, it's that high finance, government and the uneducated will cut their nose off to spite their face every single time. There is nothing rational happening in Silicone Valley or Wall Street, but you can bet they're gunning to disrupt and gut every industry in existence in the name of profit. Pandora's box has already been opened. Driving a truck or taxi cab professionally will not exist in 5 years and that's just the beginning.
Click to expand...

I get what you're saying, I just don't think it will reach the level that @Yakob is projecting.

I mean look at the extremely high CoL in the Bay Area and Silicon Valley thanks to the tech boom, now all that can afford to live there are people that are in that industry. In fact, my neck of the woods in Oregon has those same issues starting to surface. Rising CoL, tech industry coming in a few years ago and now cutting jobs to become more efficient. It's sad, but I don't think it will be a total demise of the country and our way of life. Maybe truck drivers and pilots get phased out long term, but that is a few decades down the line before those even get any serious looks.

Seriously, all it will take is one crash with paying pax on board a pilotless plane that involved an issue that human intervention could have saved and we will see atleast one guy or gal sitting in the front again... In all jet liners.
 
People said the same thing about the industrial revolution and we're still here. I mean seriously, people have been forecasting the mass technological unemployment for, well, pretty much as long as there has been the concept of "employment" (which actually is pretty recent in the scale of human history), and here we are today with globally more jobs making more money for more people leading to a higher global standard of living by any objective measure than at any other point in human history. It takes every generation time to work through changes but we've done it before and we'll do it again.
 
Last edited:
Roger Roger said:
People said the same thing about the industrial revolution and we're still here.
Click to expand...

Technology wasn't progressing as quickly then. In fact it has always advanced exponentially and so is advancing faster than ever before, at ever-increasing rates. In the industrial revolution and throughout history since then, as old jobs were eliminated new industries tended to emerge that would create new jobs. However I don't think that will be the case as much in the future since there will be fewer tasks that can be done more cheaply/efficiently by a human being than hardware/software. New industries may emerge but they will not create as many new jobs as in the past since most of the work will be done by automation. Most of the jobs that remain or are newly created will require higher and higher levels of intelligence, psychomotor skills, or social skills. So less intelligent people or those with poor psychomotor skills/physical disabilities or poor social skills will be locked out of the economy, followed by average people, and so on until only very exceptional people will still be employable.
 
JDean3204 said:
I get what you're saying, I just don't think it will reach the level that @Yakob is projecting.

I mean look at the extremely high CoL in the Bay Area and Silicon Valley thanks to the tech boom, now all that can afford to live there are people that are in that industry. In fact, my neck of the woods in Oregon has those same issues starting to surface. Rising CoL, tech industry coming in a few years ago and now cutting jobs to become more efficient. It's sad, but I don't think it will be a total demise of the country and our way of life. Maybe truck drivers and pilots get phased out long term, but that is a few decades down the line before those even get any serious looks.

Seriously, all it will take is one crash with paying pax on board a pilotless plane that involved an issue that human intervention could have saved and we will see atleast one guy or gal sitting in the front again... In all jet liners.
Click to expand...

I somewhat agree, I think you're being a bit optimistic on the timeline though. Everything comes together to create somewhat of a perfect storm. For example I'm buying property in the Midwest on the Great Lakes because quite frankly Vegas and Phoenix will not be livable when the Colorado river drys up and Miami, Vancouver, Manila etc will all be under water because in 2017 the most powerful person in the world doesn't "believe" in global warming and wants to gut the EPA, these things are all interconnected and are creating somewhat of a titanic effect, where I very much doubt that as a society we will either A. see the iceberg... or for those of us that do B. will be able to stop the momentum and turn fast enough.

Silicone Valley has an absolute fetish for crushing the working class https://www.inc.com/emily-canal/waymo-driverless-car-rides-for-families.html

However even beyond that we will not need paralegals, accountants or pharmacists, this is not happening in 30 to 50 years, it is happening now. Most jobs that we currently do are literally being made redundant by code.

The pilotless airliners will not crash, they will work perfectly, they will never show up to work tired, drunk, late, they will never slow roll a taxi to overblock or show up bent on committing suicide, they will never miss a "checklist" item and the public will accept them.

Driving and so many other jobs are gone in <7 years, it is not a long term thing, it's a 2022 thing.

I am saddened to say that I believe in 20 or so years our way of life is over. I'm not even going to have kids because I don't think anyone should have to face what humanity in the first world is going to have to face as far as a complete loss of quality of life or upward mobility in the next few decades.

In summary humans, while very smart individually, will become victims of our collective stupidity and technology as well as willful ignorance about things like climate change will be the end of any equitable or workable society.
 
Yakob said:
Technology wasn't progressing as quickly then. In fact it has always advanced exponentially and so is advancing faster than ever before, at ever-increasing rates. In the industrial revolution and throughout history since then, as old jobs were eliminated new industries tended to emerge that would create new jobs. However I don't think that will be the case as much in the future since there will be fewer tasks that can be done more cheaply/efficiently by a human being than hardware/software. New industries may emerge but they will not create as many new jobs as in the past since most of the work will be done by automation. Most of the jobs that remain or are newly created will require higher and higher levels of intelligence, psychomotor skills, or social skills. So less intelligent people or those with poor psychomotor skills/physical disabilities or poor social skills will be locked out of the economy, followed by average people, and so on until only very exceptional people will still be employable.
Click to expand...
And that's what they said in the 40s with assembly lines and the 80s with computers. Color me skeptical.
 
In all honesty I think main issue we are going to see is continued rise in CoL and stagnant wages. For example and this is local here in PDX...

Horizon paid pilots 29k first year in 2003. The average house was 200-250k for a 4br place. Rent for a one bedroom in a decent area was 500-700.

Now Horizon still pays 29k first year, in an economy where the average price for a 4br house is 450+ and rent for a crap one bedroom place is now 1100-1300 a month..

These issues are what really separates the classes, as I'm sure know already. This is why I post shortage articles, because I think it's hilarious that management of regionals right now are scratching their heads wondering why they don't have thousands of guys waiting in line to get paid poverty wages to fly a jet. Thanks to technology and information, the word has spread and people are steering clear of this industry.

The same will happen in other industries, "smart" young people are entering industries where the salaries mirror their education, skills and intellect. Salaries that allow them to afford a qol that isn't less than living comfortably.
 
Soku39 said:
I somewhat agree, I think you're being a bit optimistic on the timeline though. Everything comes together to create somewhat of a perfect storm. For example I'm buying property in the Midwest on the Great Lakes because quite frankly Vegas and Phoenix will not be livable when the Colorado river drys up and Miami, Vancouver, Manila etc will all be under water because in 2017 the most powerful person in the world doesn't "believe" in global warming and wants to gut the EPA, these things are all interconnected and are creating somewhat of a titanic effect, where I very much doubt that as a society we will either A. see the iceberg... or for those of us that do B. will be able to stop the momentum and turn fast enough.

Silicone Valley has an absolute fetish for crushing the working class https://www.inc.com/emily-canal/waymo-driverless-car-rides-for-families.html

However even beyond that we will not need paralegals, accountants or pharmacists, this is not happening in 30 to 50 years, it is happening now. Most jobs that we currently do are literally being made redundant by code.

The pilotless airliners will not crash, they will work perfectly, they will never show up to work tired, drunk, late, they will never slow roll a taxi to overblock or show up bent on committing suicide, they will never miss a "checklist" item and the public will accept them.

Driving and so many other jobs are gone in <7 years, it is not a long term thing, it's a 2022 thing.

I am saddened to say that I believe in 20 or so years our way of life is over. I'm not even going to have kids because I don't think anyone should have to face what humanity in the first world is going to have to face as far as a complete loss of quality of life or upward mobility in the next few decades.

In summary humans, while very smart individually, will become victims of our collective stupidity and technology as well as willful ignorance about things like climate change will be the end of any equitable or workable society.
Click to expand...

Well that's the great thing about being human right now, you are entitled to your opinion of what the future will hold and I'm entitled to mine. :)
 
JDean3204 said:
These issues are what really separates the classes
Click to expand...

It is a great talking point to discuss the gap between "the classes", but more people have moved up out of the middle class than have moved down out of it, and it is a clear trend vs a short-term anomaly.

pewmiddleclass.jpg
 
Hacker15e said:
It is a great talking point to discuss the gap between "the classes", but more people have moved up out of the middle class than have moved down out of it.

pewmiddleclass.jpg
Click to expand...

Is that still currently true though? I'd have to do some research on if that is still a trend from 2010 onwards.
 
JDean3204 said:
In all honesty I think main issue we are going to see is continued rise in CoL and stagnant wages. For example and this is local here in PDX...

Horizon paid pilots 29k first year in 2003. The average house was 200-250k for a 4br place. Rent for a one bedroom in a decent area was 500-700.

Now Horizon still pays 29k first year, in an economy where the average price for a 4br house is 450+ and rent for a crap one bedroom place is now 1100-1300 a month..

These issues are what really separates the classes, as I'm sure know already. This is why I post shortage articles, because I think it's hilarious that management of regionals right now are scratching their heads wondering why they don't have thousands of guys waiting in line to get paid poverty wages to fly a jet. Thanks to technology and information, the word has spread and people are steering clear of this industry.

The same will happen in other industries, "smart" young people are entering industries where the salaries mirror their education, skills and intellect. Salaries that allow them to afford a qol that isn't less than living comfortably.
Click to expand...
And Brand X paid 29k to fly 70-100 people around PDX in 1970. 50 years of wage stagnation.
 
Hacker15e said:
It is a great talking point to discuss the gap between "the classes", but more people have moved up out of the middle class than have moved down out of it, and it is a clear trend vs a short-term anomaly.

pewmiddleclass.jpg
Click to expand...

It makes sense, but the increase of lower and a slide in lower and middle lower also contributes to that. Yes some have done very well for themselves and made the jump north from middle, but at a much lower rate than those going from lower to lower middle or lower middle to middle. Everything seems to slide north from my quick take..
 
z987k said:
And Brand X paid 29k to fly 70-100 people around PDX in 1970. 50 years of wage stagnation.
Click to expand...

Yep, but CoL sure hasn't stayed the same. Making it very hard to justify a 30-35k a year income these days for a job you dumped 80-100k in. That was the point I was trying to make, then we drifted into robots and greedy management will end us all!!!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top