I hate to open Pandora's box here, but I agree. Anything could happen with the flow, don't get me wrong. Nothing is assured in this industry. I have all my apps out and am trying as hard as possible to get out of envoy. Yet here I am.
If I flow to AA, I will consider myself extremely lucky. There are over 900 pilots at AA that got there via flow. Would all of them have made it without a flow? I doubt it.
It's frustrating to hear people talk about how we are all guaranteed a job at the majors in the future due to retirements. The flow isn't a guarantee, but it's ridiculous to assume everyone will have a seat at the majors due to attrition.