DOT Sec Buttigieg: Domestic Testing Being Seriously Considered

Another thing to note is rapid tests have a false positive rate of 1-2%. With the current COVID infection prevalence between 0.2% and 0.3% in the US, that means 84-89% of positives will be false positives. If you scale this by close to a million travelers per day, that's a lot of false positives. A lot of healthy people who won't make their meeting, or won't make their commute, and will definitely be out the cost of their ticket. That would be enough for me to chose driving or flying a clapped out 172 instead, regardless of how convenient the process is made to be. That's why passenger numbers will fall drastically.

asm.org

SARS-CoV-2 Testing: Sensitivity Is Not the Whole Story | ASM.org

Some have urged large-scale, frequent testing with lateral flow SARS-CoV-2 antigen tests to curb the COVID-19 pandemic, but factors like test specificity, cost and feasibility need to be considered.
asm.org asm.org

www.thelancet.com

Buyer beware: inflated claims of sensitivity for rapid COVID-19 tests

Widespread COVID-19 testing is paramount for the receipt of timely medical care and for curtailing transmission. The USA continues to face formidable challenges in making testing accessible for all because efforts to scale up COVID-19 testing have fallen short.1 RT-PCR testing for severe acute...
www.thelancet.com

Hopefully since the current administration "follows the syance" they will read these same papers and others like them to conclude that it is indeed a bad idea.
 
luke3 said:
Another thing to note is rapid tests have a false positive rate of 1-2%. With the current COVID infection prevalence between 0.2% and 0.3% in the US, that means 84-89% of positives will be false positives.
Click to expand...

i suck at math, so correct if I’m wrong here, but if rapid tests have a false positive rate of 1-2%, that means that 1-2% of positives would be false positive, not 84-89%
 
NovemberEcho said:
i suck at math, so correct if I’m wrong here, but if rapid tests have a false positive rate of 1-2%, that means that 1-2% of positives would be false positive, not 84-89%
Click to expand...
I think the 1-2% means 1-2% of all truly negative tests will give a false positive. However, he’s off by a factor of about 8 on the currently infected population-we’re probably about 1.7% of population currently infected, not .2%
 
Richman said:
I went into the doctor and they asked if I had traveled anywhere in the last 14 days. I asked them “how do you define travel?”.

“Well, you know, away from home”.

“Um, I’m away from home right now”.

<blank stare>
Click to expand...
Comment score -1 unhelpful.

My clinic was all “oh, airline pilot - okay - well - any close contact with anyone symptomatic?”
 
The 0.2% prevalence was from the paper as of Nov 2020. I think we're at a similar point today having gone higher during Dec-Jan. But let's say it's 1%. At that prevalence 2.5% of all tests will be positives. If we take the Abbot test, 1.5% will be false positives. So 60% of all positives will be false. That's based on the data from the ASM article
 
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Richman said:
I went into the doctor and they asked if I had traveled anywhere in the last 14 days. I asked them “how do you define travel?”.

“Well, you know, away from home”.

“Um, I’m away from home right now”.

<blank stare>
Click to expand...

I had a dentist appointment, and they called me the day before with a list of COVID questions. We got to "Have you travelled recently?"

I just said, "Y'all know I'm an airline pilot."

They kind of chuckled and said they'd see me tomorrow.
 
msmspilot said:
I had a dentist appointment, and they called me the day before with a list of COVID questions. We got to "Have you travelled recently?"

I just said, "Y'all know I'm an airline pilot."

They kind of chuckled and said they'd see me tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Had the same issue.
"Well, I want to be honest, but also if this is the case I'm literally never going to be able to have my teeth worked on."
"It's fine."

Which seemed kind of silly to me since other than work and the store I basically don't go anywhere. Not a single question on "have you been at the Chili's bar down the street that is inexplicably packed every time you drive by?"
 
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